fishbane

Yes what's not clear? 3rd in the state of NJ at 144lbs. 3rd nationally at 150lbs. 3rd overall in the class of 2027.

#3 Overall Junior Amato Commits to Iowa

Flo has Amato #30 on their big board, but the story on the front page here at Intermat says he is #3 overall. Are the ranking services really that different? Any reason why?

The rule change wouldn't really help Brands. He bet on Iowa's football team, no?

The two of you are being ridiculous and the proposed wager is dumber than the ragebait. Not taking the bet means nothing. Who would take that bet? A bet with a random dude on the internet for $1000 with a super long time horizon. If you win the bet it might resolve itself as early as March 2027. But someone considering taking the the other side doesn't think that's what is going to happen. With all the ways for you to win (Any NCAA title by Bassett and you win) the earliest you could lose the best in March 2030, but it could be 2031 or later.

I don’t think I’d have (m)any of them with their stock significantly down since high school. You could only reasonably be referring to class of 2023 and 2024 recruits and most of those are stock up. I’d only really have Block as stock down, but he hasn’t wrestled much. What you classify as the main point is really beside the point. I just don’t see what you are saying about Iowa having a harder time recruiting. Iowa’s recruiting looks to be exactly where it’s always been under Brands. Over his entire tenure Iowa landed top 5 recruits at a rate of about 2 top 5 recruits every 5 years and he has never landed the #1 overall (Metcalf #2 behind Schlatter, Lee #2 behind Fix, Keuter #2 behind Shapiro, and Ferrari #2 behind Lilledahl). Missing out on Bassett, Miller, and the Raneys I am sure is disappointing, but even two of them would have been a high water mark for Brands’s recruiting. Brands recruiting in line with his historic average isn’t entirely bad news for the Hawkeyes because Iowa’s results have routinely exceeded his recruiting. Over the past 20 years many coaches have out recruited Brands but only one program has been able to consistently finish ahead of Iowa at NCAAs. The question at issue here is will getting these two recruits allow VT to pull ahead of Iowa at NCAAs? It’s possible, but somewhat unclear at this point. VT will need to find 5 AAs or 4 high AAs to be top 3 team at NCAAs and at this point those are almost entirely theoretical. Bassett is the only guy in the potential lineup that has beaten a wrestler that’s stood on the podium at NCAAs.

Virginia Tech is ahead of them, but it's not by that much. Consider these potential 2027-28 Lineups for Virginia Tech and Iowa without any transfers. Virginia tech 125: Dickman #16 (2026) 133: Seidel #10 (2025)/Campbell #49 (2024) 141: Gorman #57 (2025)/Seidel #10 (2025) 149: Bassett #1 (2026) 157: Gaj #24 (2025) 165: Church #29 (2023)/Miller #1 (2027) 174: Burton #14 (2025)/Miller #1 (2027) 184: Wright #10 (2024)/Miller #1 (2027) 197: Sasso #26 (2023) 285: Mullen #11 (2023) Iowa 125: DeLuca #9 (2025) 133: Peterson #52 (2023) 141: Block #22 (2023) 149: Voinovich #99 (2024) 157: Estrada #48 (2024) 165: Torres #69 (2025) 174: Arnold #5 (2023) 184: Ferrari #2 (2024) 197: Luddington #15 (2025) 285: Keuter #2 (2023)/Mocco #15 (2026) That's a pretty close dual. Iowa could be favoured in the 4 heaviest weights in addition to 125. They could potentially also get a win at either 133/141 or 157. It's possible for Iowa to win this. It could even be a blowout Iowa win depending on how these guys develop over the next 2 years. Compare that Iowa lineup with the Nebraska team that took 2nd at 2025 NCAAs. Potentially more talent out of high school and without the benefit of a transfer and 3 guys that are 6-7 years out of HS. 125: Smith Unranked (2019) Transfer 133: Van Dee #93 (2022) 141: Hardy #9 (2018) 149: Lovett #16 (2019) 157: Taylor #30 (2022) 165: Minto Unranked (2023) 174: Pinto #11 (2021) 184: Allred #17 (2020) 197: McDanel #37 (2023) 285: Andrews #36 (2022)

Iowa really hasn't been out-recruited by those teams at least in the 2023-2027 classes. I looked at Flo rankings from those years for my earlier post and shockingly Nebraska only has a single top 20 commit over those 5 classes. Iowa fans should not be envious of Nebraska's recruiting Team # top 5/# top 10/# top 20 ranked by total top 20, then top 10, then top 5. PSU 5/9/13 (Includes Ryder who transferred out, but not Welsh who transferred in. Ono not included) OSU 7/11/12 Virginia Tech 2/4/7 Iowa 3/4/6 Ohio State 1/3/5 (Includes Welsh who transferred out) Cornell 2/2/4 Minnesota 1/1/4 Michigan 0/1/4 Missouri 1/2/3 NC State 0/1/2 Nebraska 0/0/1 UNC 0/0/1

Getting out recruited by Virgina Tech proved to be the end of the line for Brands's predecessor at Iowa. Could it be the begining of the end for him too?

These guys won’t be on the team together until 2028 NCAAs at the earliest. It’s too soon to tell whether they will be a top three team in 2028, but looking at the recruiting classes that will be competing in that tournament (2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027) they are #3 in recruiting. They have 2 top 5, 4 top 10, and 7 top 20 recruits from those classes. Which is well behind PSU (5/9/13 + Ono) and OSU (7/11/12), but ahead of Iowa (3/4/6) and everyone else. Virgina Techs top 20 recruits from the relevant classes are #1 (2026) Basset, #1 (2027) Miller, #10 (2024) Wright, #10 (2025) Seidel, #11 (2023) Mullen, #14 (2025) Burton, #16 (2026) Dickman. compare that with Iowas top 20 recruits over the same period #2 (2023) Keuter, #2 (2024) Ferrari, #5 (2023) Arnold, #9 (2025) DeLuca, #15 (2025) Ludington, #15 (2026) Mocco Even though Virginia Tech is slightly ahead of Iowa in recruiting they will have a lot of work. Iowa has the budget and ability to bring in transfers to plug any holes.

This isn't true. Many illegal aliens enter the country 100% legally and then do not leave when they are supposed to. The employer is often just as much or more to blame for the fraud than the unauthorized employee.

The two schools we are measuring Bishop McCort against have been historically good. Faith Christian has set the team point record at PIAAs two years in a row. In 2023 Faith Christian won AA states with 151 team points that was the AA record at the time and only 1 point behind 2015 Franklin Regional (4 champs with Brown, Lee, Kemmerer, Maruca, and Shields in the lineup) for the overall record. In 2024 McCort had the 3rd most ever team points (151.5 now 5th) and Faith Christian had the most (167.0 now 3rd most). Last year Faith Christian broke their own record (232.5) and McCort finished 2nd with 2nd most team points ever (218.5). Wyoming Seminary peaked in 2024 when they broke the scoring record at National Preps with 395.5 team points. That team was stacked with several top recruits. Luke Lilledahl (#1 2024), Joseph Sealey (#6 2024), Jude Correa (#12 2025), Shamus Regan (#22 2027), Nathan Desmond (#31 2025), Vince Bouzakis (#40 2025), Matthew Botello (#47 2025), Dominic Federici (#51 2024), Jake Dailey (#53 2024), Davis Motyka (#89 2024) That's 3 in the top 12, 7 in the top 50 and 10 in the top 100. Eleven of their 14 starters are either wrestling in D1 or committed to wrestle D1. Another, Shamus Regan, is #22 on the 2027 big board and highly likely to wrestle at a D1 college. The remaining two starters weren't bad. Both were 2nd at prep states and one placed 8th at National Preps.

At the end of the season the national ranking was 1. Faith Christian 2. Bishop McCort ... 4) Wyoming Seminary. So 1st in their state was first in the country. Those three had split duals with Wyoming Seminary beating Faith Christian early in the season and losing to McCort later. Faith Christian then beat Bishop McCort to win the state dual title at the end of the season. So the picture might be a little unclear looking at duals, but there were also tournaments. McCort, Faith Christian, and Wyoming Seminary entered the same tournaments thought the year and Faith Christian won every tournament they entered. Bishop McCort outplaced Wyoming Seminary at every tournament the two of them entered. Wyoming Seminary is not in the PIAA so their end of season tournament was National Preps where they finished 3rd as a team. By the end of the season the pecking order was pretty clear with Bishop McCort #2 ahead of Wyoming Seminary and behind Faith Christian. I get the argument that McCort can't be number 1 all time because they were behind Faith Christian, but they were very close with Faith Christian who set a number of records - Most points ever at PIAAs (232.5), most PIAA champions in a season (4, tied with 8 teams), most PIAA place winners in a season (10 tied with 2004 Northampton). McCort was close with the 2nd most team points ever at PIAAs (218.5), the most PIAA champions in a season (4, tied with 8 teams), and 3rd most PIAA place winners in a season (9). 2025 Faith Christian had a big three that stacks up pretty well with all these historic teams we have been analyzing in terms of recruiting rankings. Joe Bachmann (#3 2027), Adam Waters (#7 2026), Nicholas Singer (#18 2027), Cael Weidemoyer (#57 2026), Mark Effendian (#58 2026), Gauge Botero (#68 2025), Jason Singer(#72 2026), Max Stein (#96 2025) Those rankings are from Flo who doesn't have a 2028 big board yet, but as someone else pointed out other services have Freddy Bachman #1 in the class of 2028. So last years Faith Christian could have 3 top 10s and 4 top 20s. Looking ahead to next season 3 of Faith Christian's PIAA place winners graduate whereas only 1 of Bishop McCort's is not returning, so it is possible the 2026 team wins PIAAs and the state dual title. It will be close again. The past historic teams discussed here did not always wrestle the top opponents and were not perfect. That 2005 Davison team finished 2nd at the Medina tournament where Metcalf famously beat Schlatter. The 2004 Davison team that also featured Paul Donahoe won Medina but only by ~4 team points and Medina wasn't the toughest tournament in the country that year.

Biden increased the deportations his last two years. Here is a chart showing removals each quarter. Q1 2021 was the last quarter of Trump's first term. The rest of them are Biden.

Not exactly. That would be the case if there was only one murder in South Dakota this year. There has probably been more than 1. In 2023 there was 27.

There are two numbers used to calculate the murder rate, # of murders and total population. Deporting violent criminals, murders, gang members, etc might lower the numerator, but if you are removing all illegal immigrants you are also decreasing the denominator by removing people who are not violent criminals/murders. I'll give a more concrete example. There are a lot of murders in the state of NY (almost 600 in 2023), but there are also a lot of people (~20M). The murder rate in NY is lower than the national average. If ICE were deport all New Yorkers they would be removing a lot of murders, but mostly non-murderers and the net effect would be that the US murder rate would increase even though no New Yorkers would be here to make it go up.

The bet your other alias originally proposed was this "I’ll bet that illegal immigrants kill more U.S. citizens than citizens who are wrongly deported." That is what I asked the question "How many US citizens were murdered by illegal immigrants in 2024 and so far this year?" in response. You proposed a bet that was one number is greater than another number. My question was to try and determine one of the numbers. I asked about US citizens because that is what you wanted to bet. If you now want to expand it from "illegal immigrants kill more US citizens" to more broadly "illegal immigrants kill more people in the US" I don't think it substantively changes the proposal. The math behind my statement is pretty simply. If illegal immigrants commit homicides at a higher rate than the rest of the population then deporting all illegal immigrants will cause a reduction in the homicide rate. If not then the murder rate will be expected to either go up or not change.

That happened before the election. Fiscal year 2024 ended in September 2024.

Just because a detention results in the arrest of a person and an order for removal that doesn't make the detention any more legal than what happened to Leo. The police could detain anyone leaving a bar if they were looking to increase DUI and/or public intoxication arrests. It would result in the arrest of many guilty people, many would be detained for a de minimis and not newsworthy period of time based on what the officer can observe at a glance, and a relatively small number of innocent people would be detained for a prolonged period of time, but it's all unconstitutional nonetheless. Its legality and the ability of the government to do it should not be determined by the number of guilty people arrested vs the number of innocent that are detained for a prolonged period of time. It is understandable that officers would do this. They are getting squeezed from above. There is a goal to deport a million people this year and that won't happen if they follow the law. Most of the blame belongs on the leadership. Unfortunately any data available will be far from comprehensive.

Didn’t say that. I think a sanctuary city if they know who committed a murder would charge them and if the evidence was sufficient get a conviction and incarcerate the responsible individual based on the sentence received. Looking at the bet you proposed I think there would be better documentation for a murder than an illegal detention/arrest. The administration has an interest in promote stories involving crime by illegal immigrants to justify the raids. They also have an interest to not document illegal detentions to avoid accountability.

That wasn’t the question you presented. You need to ask your other account not me and one of the murders you listed was not actually a murder, it was a vehicular homicide. One is too many in the sense that the goal should be zero, but given the number of homicides in this country and the number of illegal immigrants, illegal immigrants could account for 500+ homicides/year and be less likely to commit murder than the rest of the population. If illegal immigrants commit murder at a lower rate than the rest of the population then it would be illogical to target them as part of a campaign to lower the murder rate.

How many US citizens were murdered by illegal immigrants in 2024 and so far this year?

That wasn’t what you had asked. You asked to cite volume of US citizens being deported. Which was a straw man as no one had alleged the removal of US. Citizens. I had posted instances of unlawful detentions and arrests, which are also unconstitutional. The two links I posted showed 5 citizens being arrested/detained. It will be difficult to get an estimate for the number of illegal detentions and arrests. The data isn’t readily available. How many US citizens were murdered by illegal immigrants in 2024 and so far this year?

Both a detention and an arrest are seizures under the 4th amendment. Detaining someone with particularized facts tying that person to criminal activity is not constitutional. Being Hispanic and working in a particular profession is not enough. These ice detentions can last days. There often is little difference between a detention and an arrest. If law enforcement cuffs a person without evidence, holds them for days, and releases them without charges they have still been arrested regardless of missing all the usual stuff you listed. What I am talking about here is ICE going onto private property without a warrant and detaining anyone that looks Latino. The second time Leo Garcia Venegas was detained he was the only person working in the house. How could ICE have any particularized facts that he was an illegal immigrant to detain him? How could they enter a private building without a warrant? They simply didn’t. He was a US citizen. ICE had verified this fact a few weeks earlier when they done the same thing to him at a different construction site.

I understand the math. There are nearly 70 million Hispanics living in the US. The vast majority of them are US citizens. Whilst I am sure many Americans voted to deport those without legal status, I am far less convinced that many voted to eliminate the constitutional rights of Hispanics working in construction, agriculture, and other manual labor occupations. Nothing you said justifies it, and moreover is simply not allowed under the constitution.