Wrestleknownothing

you absolutely should not trust him.

There is someone doing interesting wrestling stats called Mat Stats. I signed up for his newsletter. This issue had some good detail on the 2025 tournament. https://matstats.beehiiv.com/p/5-ncaa-wrestling-championships-statistics-2025?utm_campaign=5-ncaa-wrestling-championships-statistics-2025&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_source=matstats.beehiiv.com They use trackwrestling data and calculate things like total TDs, riding time points, back points, bonus, etc. Check it out.

This is neither here nor there, but someone on HVI asked about how the tournament is scored and whether there is always the same number of advancement and placement points. The answer is yes since 2013. But these questions always get me thinking about edge cases. And there is a beautiful one in 2024. Vince Cornella received an at-large bid at 141 in 2024, but due to injury was unable to compete. Jacob Brya, the first alternate, did not wind up taking his place so the bracket was 32 instead of the usual 33. Since the bracket is now scored as a 32 man bracket with a pigtail, that meant Gradner-Webb's #32 Todd Carter received a forfeit in the championship pigtail round worth 3 points (1 advancement + 2 bonus). He then lost to #1 seed Jesse Mendez and #16 seed Dylan Chappell. Todd Carter went 0-2 but still scored 3 team points.

Does anyone know if Lucas Byrd is wrestling his 7th year? I had him as not returning in the numbers above, but it occurred to me that he has another year of eligibility. If he returns then it is 207 wrestlers returning who scored 885.5 points (61.6%), still far below last year's number.

I get the case for Welsh, but not necessarily Elam and Figueroa. Elam was injured. Even though he is a four time AA we have plenty of examples of injuries taking their toll over time and results suffering as a result. And Figueroa did what Figueroa did. As a defending champ he went 1-2, I am not sure it is safe to say he will become a champ again. So using his high point doesn't make a lot of sense. As Bill Parcells said, "you are what your record says you are". And his current record says 1-2 with both loses to guys who failed to AA.

Because I focus on the ratio adding something to the numerator that is not accounted for in the denominator becomes problematic. But if you have a list of redshirts from last year that are returning this year, it is certainly doable.

Do you mean best past finish? The numbers do include last year's (past) finish.

The thing you have to remember is @lisa morales is an idiot

Last year there was Alirez (2nd) and Van Ness (3rd) that I can recall.

AJ Ferrari (13.5) and Lachlan McNeil (12) account for about half the points.

Buying anything today versus a week ago.

In general there are fewer returning points this year. A lot fewer. Last year 196 wrestlers who scored 1,066.5 points (out of 1,437.5, 74.2%) returned in 2025. This year 206 wrestlers who scored 863.5 points (out of 1438, 60%) return for 2026.

Those 120.5 transferred points from 2024? They scored 111.5 points in 2025. But it was a tale of two cities. In Stillwater the four transfers each exceeded their 2024 total in 2025. In aggregate they beat their prior year points by 33. In Iowa City one transfer exceeded his 2024 total and two missed, for an aggregate 20 fewer points in 2025.

With ramped up transfer activity, and pending activity, it got me thinking about the returning points graphic I did last year with color coded sources. I started building the data and it struck me how few returning points are actually up for grabs in the portal this year. For returning points I am being strict in the definition. This is based on points scored in the 2025 tournament. I know if it is your team you want to put on those rose colored glasses and talk about the most points the wrestler has ever scored (sorry Richie Figueroa), or what you think they are capable of scoring (everyone is a potential finalist in someone's opinion). Only 25.5 returning points have transferred so far (1.8% of all points scored). And only 26 remaining points are looking for a new home. There are 51.5 total points (3.6%) looking to, or already, transferred (vs. last year 120.5 or 8.4%). That's it. Everything else is about potential, that most elusive of mistresses.

Think of Figueroa as a likely value buy. At the end of 2024 he would have been a very pricey pick up in the portal. After 2025, not so much. Sure, he had a rough tournament, but he still represents a big upgrade over whoever else they have in the room.

It isn't too late. I will still take the other side of that bet.

And yet he finds so many ways to be wrong. It is a talent.

I work with large data sets to try and figure whatever/stuff out. I call it rolling around in the numbers until something happens. My dad called it torturing the numbers until they speak. I also describe my job as, "it is hard to tell the difference between what I do, and goofing around". So that affords some latitude.

Back in the day this was called a dead cat bounce. As in, even a dead cat will bounce when you drop it. There were a lot of colorful descriptions back in the day. Not necessarily true, but colorful.

It is even worse than that. China is gathering allies in the fight against the US. Just a few short months ago it was the opposite. China was the economic bully that other countries in the region were aligning themselves with the US to fight. There was someone on here warning about how the BRICS currency was going to replace the dollar as the world's reserve currency. Trump's actions are making that a more realistic threat.

The last available data shows that half the cars produced in China were for export to other countries, mostly in Europe. Think of the balance of trade benefits for Trump when Musk starts producing everything in the US and exports them to China and Europe. Come on Elon, you spent >$250mm to get your boy elected, you are trying to buy judicial elections in Wisconsin, now is the time to re-patriate Tesla production. No more bowing to communist regimes. You know, because you are a patriot.

That's 32,000 jobs coming back to the US in the next few days. Can I get an amen?

Or the one in Germany? Surely those will be the first factories re-patriated to the US. Certainly he and Trump wont be hypocrites on this one, right?

The hearing recessed for the day. The judge has open questions. How will existing rostered athletes be treated if cap is in place? Cuts? Or grandfathered in? What are the rights of future athletes? Can you make the settlement binding on someone not born yet? How does the settlement interact with existing state laws? And others? The two sides are in agreement and have a week to respond to questions. So no settlement today.

It is thought that schools will follow a similar formula for direct payments as for the restitution payments, so figure between 0% and 5% for Olympic and non-revenue sports. For these guys it really will still be only NIL. As for raising extra money to make direct payments, schools will experiment with all manner of creative solutions. Whatever works will be adopted by others. Tennessee is already adding a "talent fee" to ticket prices to raise money.