This isn't exactly right yet, but it gives you a general idea of the range of expected outcomes for the current top 10 teams as ranked by Intermat (but using my expected points). The expected points are the red line in the middle of the orange area for each team. The areas are based on the average plus and minus one standard deviation.
And therein lies the rub. Standard deviations assume that the data is normally distributed. It is not. For example, PSU has more downside than upside, but this math treats them as equally probable. I may fix that in the future (or I may not - I am fickle that way).
I just think this is more interesting because it allows every fan base to see the likely best from their team. For example, if PSU underperforms their seed it will still take an above average performance from Iowa to take the title, but it can be done.
The race for second through fourth is much more up for grabs. Missouri and/or Cornell can overcome Iowa's advantage with an above average performance even if Iowa wrestles to seed.
Caveat: Take it for what it is worth. A big pile of numbers, some mental masturbation, and voila. To quote my father, figures never lie, but liars always figure.