Using the match by match data from 1988 to 2021 and then adjusting for expected increases in bonus points given the three point takedown, I finally got around to working up bonus point estimates by seed. So now I can estimate total team scores rather than just advancement and placement. Of course there will be variation, but let's not let that stop us from making a fool of ourselves.
I know some people thought PSU had a shot at the total points record this year, but boy is that looking unlikely at this point. And even with Van Ness it was looking improbable.
Using the latest round of rankings from Intermat and the new estimates we get the following scores out to 20 places:
While the team race is not exactly close, it is also not quite the blowout it was expected before the season started when PSU was favored to more than double second place.
To reach 170.5 (the record adjusted for current scoring methods) PSU will need Braeden Davis (currently not ranked at 125) to make a big splash AND to significantly outperform their seeds (they often do) AND score a lot more bonus points than normal (not really this version of PSU's especiality). Call me skeptical. A 49 point gap is just too big.
It feels like there are 9 or 10 (I see you anOSU) teams with a realistic shot at the podium. That should make it one of the more exciting tournaments in a long time.