What are the odds. What are the odds of the earth ever existing and able sustain human life. 1 in 10 to the power of 282.

[Paul158]

Now I thought that the 1 in 10 to the power of 282 number was a large number and it is.

Then I checked on the odds of a human evolving on earth. That is 1 in 10 to the power of 2,285,000. Wow That's a big number.

We had a thread on Noah on here. The area where Noah lived (Mesopotamia) had tremendous floods in those days from the Tigris and Euphrates rivers. Years before Noah there were individuals who were requested to build large boats because of the catastrophic flooding. The odds of what happened to Noah and the flood (regional flood in Mesopotamia) is only 1 in 100,000.

Maybe some of you advanced scholars could make some sense of all this. Thanks ahead of time.

Edited March 12 by Paul158
missed a word

[red viking]

12 minutes ago, Paul158 said:

Now I thought that 1 in 10 to the power of 282 number was large number and it is.

Then I checked on the odds a human evolving on earth. That is 1 in 10 to the power of 2,285,000. Wow That's a big number.

We had a thread on Noah on here. The area where Noah lived (Mesopotamia) had tremendous floods in those days from the Tigris and Euphrates rivers. Years before Noah there were individuals who were requested to build large boats because of the catastrophic flooding.

Maybe some of you advanced scholars could make some sense of all this. Thanks ahead of time.

First, how was that number calculated? 

Every planet has unique characteristics though. I.e. no 2 planets in universe are exactly the same. If that's what you're saying, ok, but then that doesn't prove anything. Fact is that we are on this specific, unique planet with specific and unique life forms. 

We are here either way. 

Edited March 12 by red viking

[fishbane]

I think you are confused with these probabilities.  No doubt they are hard to nail down, but it appears you are confusing an estimate that any one person will exist exactly as they are today vs the odds that humans evolved on Earth at all.  I am sure that is also is a very small number but given there are upwards of 10^24 stars in the universe and probably 10^25 planets, even some highly unlikely events are expected to occur.

[El Luchador]

On 3/12/2026 at 12:47 PM, red viking said:

First, how was that number calculated? 

Every planet has unique characteristics though. I.e. no 2 planets in universe are exactly the same. If that's what you're saying, ok, but then that doesn't prove anything. Fact is that we are on this specific, unique planet with specific and unique life forms. 

We are here either way. 

The number is probably low. Just having a random group of amino acids come together to form a self-replicating protein by themselves already meets the definition of mathematical absurdity. Then combine that with the qualities of nature required to sustain life and the probability of that scenario being randomly created is so far beyond a reasonable mathematical probability that it literally requires one to commit to a rather foolish level of faith in randomness. 

[ThreePointTakedown]

Earth: The odds are 1. It happened. 

Humans: Also 1. It happened. 

Sense of what? 

 

But I'll try.

Earth: The size of the universe being what it is, there are as close to an infinite number of chances for this to have happened. So the odds that it WOULD happen are as close to 100% as is possible. Because with an infinite number of chances there is a 100% chance of everything that is possible to happen. Since Earth is one of those possible things then it was inevitable that it would happen, given enough time.

Humans: since its a guarantee that Earth would happen. There is guarantee that Earth would happen nearly an infinite amount of times, given infinite opportunities. So the chances of all the events that influenced Human evolution to happen on one of those Earths is also 100%. We just happen to be on one that succeeded in evolving humans. 

 

https://sealevel.nasa.gov/faq/13/how-long-have-sea-levels-been-rising-how-does-recent-sea-level-rise-compare-to-that-over-the-previous/

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.278.5341.1209c  60%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flood_myth 

 

Noah: there is evidence that after the last ice age(ending about 3000 years ago) the ocean level rose 280 feet. With every inch of sea level rise there is approximately 2-10 feet of coast line that gets covered. With an estimated 60% of the human population living within 50km of a coastline going back to the time when the Noah story was popularized(lots of civilizations had a Noah-type story, btw). It shouldn't be surprising that civilizations had flood stories. Considering their civilizations lived through mass 'floods' of the land they traditionally lived on, near the coast, was completely swallowed. Depending on the layout of the topography of the coast the sea would have encroached up to 6500 feet(on the low end). If more than a mile of coast was swallowed by the seas and likely as not homes, houses, dwellings, docks, and other means of survival were engulfed by sea water. Those events might have made it into the oral tradition, similar to biblical tradition, of a variety of civilizations all over the world. So the story of Noah may just be a way that early humans tried to explain the natural events that occur when ice melts in water. 

[red viking]

2 hours ago, El Luchador said:

The number is probably low. Just having a random group of amino acids come together to form a self-replicating protein by themselves already meets the definition of mathematical absurdity. Then combine that with the qualities of nature required to sustain life and the probability of that scenario being randomly created is so far beyond a reasonable mathematical probability that it literally requires one to commit to a rather foolish level of faith in randomness. 

Infinitely low that it could occur again exactly as it did but not nearly as low for some type of life to form, including ones much different from us. 

There may be life in universe that we don't even recognize as life.  For example, maybe there's "boron-based" life somewhere. 

ANYWAY, what's your point? 

[ThreePointTakedown]

2 hours ago, El Luchador said:

The number is probably low. Just having a random group of amino acids come together to form a self-replicating protein by themselves already meets the definition of mathematical absurdity. Then combine that with the qualities of nature required to sustain life and the probability of that scenario being randomly created is so far beyond a reasonable mathematical probability that it literally requires one to commit to a rather foolish level of faith in randomness. 

 

All of those things are true if this one planet is the only possible planet that we could have come from. But again, considering the number of suns in our galaxy and number of galaxies in the universe and the abundance of amino acids. It is likely, that given so many opportunities that something akin to Earth and life is not only possible but probable. How each one evolves and is influenced by outside events are unique to each occurrence. But all eventualities being equally as likely(see shuffled deck of cards) this one has happened despite how likely or unlikely it 'could have' happened. 

 

 

[red viking]

7 minutes ago, red viking said:

Infinitely low that it could occur again exactly as it did but not nearly as low for some type of life to form, including ones much different from us. 

There may be life in universe that we don't even recognize as life.  For example, maybe there's "boron-based" life somewhere. 

ANYWAY, what's your point? 

Are you saying this is proof of creation or something like that?

[El Luchador]

2 hours ago, ThreePointTakedown said:

 

All of those things are true if this one planet is the only possible planet that we could have come from. But again, considering the number of suns in our galaxy and number of galaxies in the universe and the abundance of amino acids. It is likely, that given so many opportunities that something akin to Earth and life is not only possible but probable. How each one evolves and is influenced by outside events are unique to each occurrence. But all eventualities being equally as likely(see shuffled deck of cards) this one has happened despite how likely or unlikely it 'could have' happened. 

 

 

You take too much for granted.  How did the amino acids form and how did they come together in the right order? Just the math on that single event goes beyond statistical absurdity. There are 10 to the 80 total atoms in the universe, so you are limited to less than that to accomplish what you need. So to say there are so many stars and so many planets that the likely hood is high, is a massive overreach. Math is no friend to the big bang theory and evolution.

[red viking]

5 minutes ago, El Luchador said:

You take too much for granted.  How did the amino acids form and how did they come together in the right order?⁷ Just the math on that single event goes beyond statistical absurdity. There are 10 to the 80 total atoms in the universe, so you are limited to less than that to accomplish what you need. So to say there are so many stars and so many planets that the likely hood is high, is a massive overreach. Math is no friend to the big bang theory and evolution.

So thats it? It's proof of creation? Could there have been an initial creation by Grndat followed by evolution or are they exclusive of each other? 

Edited March 17 by red viking

[El Luchador]

I'm not claiming it's proof of anything so much as a probability of what isn't. 

[El Luchador]

2 hours ago, ThreePointTakedown said:

 

Earth: The odds are 1. It happened. 

Humans: Also 1. It happened. 

Sense of what? 

 

But I'll try.

Earth: The size of the universe being what it is, there are as close to an infinite number of chances for this to have happened. So the odds that it WOULD happen are as close to 100% as is possible. Because with an infinite number of chances there is a 100% chance of everything that is possible to happen. Since Earth is one of those possible things then it was inevitable that it would happen, given enough time.

Humans: since its a guarantee that Earth would happen. There is guarantee that Earth would happen nearly an infinite amount of times, given infinite opportunities. So the chances of all the events that influenced Human evolution to happen on one of those Earths is also 100%. We just happen to be on one that succeeded in evolving humans. 

 

https://sealevel.nasa.gov/faq/13/how-long-have-sea-levels-been-rising-how-does-recent-sea-level-rise-compare-to-that-over-the-previous/

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.278.5341.1209c  60%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flood_myth 

 

Noah: there is evidence that after the last ice age(ending about 3000 years ago) the ocean level rose 280 feet. With every inch of sea level rise there is approximately 2-10 feet of coast line that gets covered. With an estimated 60% of the human population living within 50km of a coastline going back to the time when the Noah story was popularized(lots of civilizations had a Noah-type story, btw). It shouldn't be surprising that civilizations had flood stories. Considering their civilizations lived through mass 'floods' of the land they traditionally lived on, near the coast, was completely swallowed. Depending on the layout of the topography of the coast the sea would have encroached up to 6500 feet(on the low end). If more than a mile of coast was swallowed by the seas and likely as not homes, houses, dwellings, docks, and other means of survival were engulfed by sea water. Those events might have made it into the oral tradition, similar to biblical tradition, of a variety of civilizations all over the world. So the story of Noah may just be a way that early humans tried to explain the natural events that occur when ice melts in water. 

You also don't have Infinity anything, time or matter. So stop making ridiculous statements based on scientific untruths. 

 

[red viking]

10 minutes ago, El Luchador said:

I'm not claiming it's proof of anything so much as a probability of what isn't. 

Well, these odds, whatever they are, put no dent in the evolution theory whatsoever. 

I agree that the establishment of the initial life is a big mystery still and seems very tough to occur by chance. 

Edited March 17 by red viking

[El Luchador]

27 minutes ago, red viking said:

Well, these odds, whatever they are, put no dent in the evolution theory whatsoever. 

I agree that the establishment of the initial life is a big mystery still and seems very tough to occur by chance. 

The actual term used is mathematically absurd. If I'm not mistaken it is represented by 10 to the 54th power. If you increased The odds by 500% you would still  exede the mathematical level of absurdity.

[red viking]

17 minutes ago, El Luchador said:

The actual term used is mathematically absurd. If I'm not mistaken it is represented by 10 to the 54th power. If you increased The odds by 500% you would still  exede the mathematical level of absurdity.

The odds depend upon how rigid you are. For example, life evolving EXACTLY as it did or allowing for any type of life ( eg non carbon, etc). The first one is absurd though, itself. As somebody pointed out, the odds of shuffling a deck of cards any specified way is 1× 10 to the 67th power. Almost the number of atoms in the universe. However, I can still shuffle it any time I want and still get SOMETHING. 

Edited March 17 by red viking

[Paul158]

12 minutes ago, red viking said:

The odds depend upon how rigid you are. For example, life evolving EXACTLY as it did or allowing for any type of life ( eg non carbon, etc). The first one is absurd though, itself. As somebody pointed out, the odds of shuffling a deck of cards any specified way is 1× 10 to the 67th power. More than the number of atoms in the universe. However, I can still shuffle it any time I want and still get SOMETHING. 

So, scientists have been able create some sort of a mouse from stem cells. Big advancement. They say after the first bacteria like microbes appeared on Earth it took another 3 to 3.5 billion years to have stem cells. ( multicellular). Stem cells are very, very, very complex. You might say they are the key to all living things.

[mspart]

Try shuffling nothing and getting something from that. 

mspart

[red viking]

Just now, mspart said:

Try shuffling nothing and getting something from that. 

mspart

Earth had the building blocks such as minerals and water before anything happened. Again, however, has absolutely nothing to do w evolution from simple to more advanced forms. And yes, it took hundreds of millions of years. 

[El Luchador]

3 hours ago, red viking said:

Earth had the building blocks such as minerals and water before anything happened. Again, however, has absolutely nothing to do w evolution from simple to more advanced forms. And yes, it took hundreds of millions of years. 

Having those things available also plays into the probability issue. It's not a pro, it's a con. Every single variable being precisely as it needs to be, at exactly the right time, still only starts the ball rolling. Every single advancement requires perfect conditions. Then combine that with what we now know about DNA and we learn that all possible genetic features need to be available in the DNA. You can only lose information from DNA, you can never gain it.  

[mspart]

5 hours ago, red viking said:

Earth had the building blocks such as minerals and water before anything happened. Again, however, has absolutely nothing to do w evolution from simple to more advanced forms. And yes, it took hundreds of millions of years. 

I was speaking of the big bang where there was nothing and then there was something.  You are correct for after the big bang.  

mspart

[red viking]

1 hour ago, mspart said:

I was speaking of the big bang where there was nothing and then there was something.  You are correct for after the big bang.  

mspart

It was supposedly in a very small volume but plenty of mass so I wouldn't say there was "nothing."

[jross]

It is mind numbing to contemplate something from nothing or that there has always been something.  Our existence implies anything is possible given enough time.

How are the odds calculated?  Do they even matter since our beginning was impossible?

[red viking]

2 hours ago, jross said:

It is mind numbing to contemplate something from nothing or that there has always been something.  Our existence implies anything is possible given enough time.

How are the odds calculated?  Do they even matter since our beginning was impossible?

Odds are calculated using a LOT of assumptions. 

I agree that the odds don't matter much. But not because it is "impossible," but rather that it DID happen and therefore is 110% possible.

Did Grndat or aliens form the first life or did they occur via chemical reactions?

We don't know. That's uncomfortable for a lot of people, but its best for people to get over that and accept it.  

[El Luchador]

The "Improbable" View: Proponents of this view, often highlighting intelligent design, argue that forming just one functional protein (approx. 150 amino acids) by chance is about 1 in 10 to the 164th, while a full cell, requiring hundreds of proteins, is virtually impossible (10 to 41,000).

[red viking]

9 minutes ago, El Luchador said:

The "Improbable" View: Proponents of this view, often highlighting intelligent design, argue that forming just one functional protein (approx. 150 amino acids) by chance is about 1 in 10 to the 164th, while a full cell, requiring hundreds of proteins, is virtually impossible (10 to 41,000).

Hard to give a reliable probability calculation when you don't know how it happened. 

Still don't understand why this probability is so important. Even if we were created, you have no idea what created us (could have been aliens; we don't know for sure it was Grndat) and it does absolutely nothing to refute the age of the earth or evolution from those first life forms. 

But if you want to accept this big question mark as proof that we were created by God and that that version of God must be Jesus, have fun. 

 

Edited March 18 by red viking