Over/Under on Senior World Medals

[Hammerlock3]

If you had to name a number in reference to howmany senior medals we get, knowing you counterpart was going to say over or under, constituting their bet, what number are you saying?

I'm saying 4. My thought process being no one would take the over, 4 is a tie, and I'd beat anyone who took the under. 

I could have just said "howmany medals" but i find this scenario is a little more immersive and gets more thought into it. 

[flyingcement]

When you assert that people would not go over four and you would win if they didn't: are you judging it from a bottom up or a top down perspective.  I.e. are you saying that based on the brackets they have and what each wrestlers path to medaling would be? Or more or an overall evaluation of the quality of the team and an expectation based on that?

[nhs67]

Typically you would say 3.5 or 4.5, not 4.

[reversaloffortune]

For freestyle mens right? Set the number at 4.5 and I will take the under.

[Hammerlock3]

1 hour ago, nhs67 said:

Typically you would say 3.5 or 4.5, not 4.

no. some people allow ties.

[Hammerlock3]

8 minutes ago, reversaloffortune said:

For freestyle mens right? Set the number at 4.5 and I will take the under.

well the idea is to set a difficult number. 

[Hammerlock3]

1 hour ago, flyingcement said:

When you assert that people would not go over four and you would win if they didn't: are you judging it from a bottom up or a top down perspective.  I.e. are you saying that based on the brackets they have and what each wrestlers path to medaling would be? Or more or an overall evaluation of the quality of the team and an expectation based on that?

I'm talking about us making predictions now, thats what you're asking right?

[flyingcement]

2 minutes ago, Hammerlock3 said:

I'm talking about us making predictions now, thats what you're asking right?

I’m asking what’s underlying your guess of 4 — is it more bottom-up, meaning you’re looking at the brackets and the specific matchups each wrestler faces? Or is it more top-down, meaning you’re evaluating overall team quality and setting expectations from that?

I ask because I don’t know much about a lot of the international wrestlers, so I can’t make an accurate prediction myself. If your approach is bottom-up, I’d know I should dig into the brackets and specific matchups. If it’s top-down, I’d focus more on the overall roster quality.

[Hammerlock3]

17 minutes ago, flyingcement said:

I’m asking what’s underlying your guess of 4 — is it more bottom-up, meaning you’re looking at the brackets and the specific matchups each wrestler faces? Or is it more top-down, meaning you’re evaluating overall team quality and setting expectations from that?

I ask because I don’t know much about a lot of the international wrestlers, so I can’t make an accurate prediction myself. If your approach is bottom-up, I’d know I should dig into the brackets and specific matchups. If it’s top-down, I’d focus more on the overall roster quality.

top down!

[Wrestleknownothing]

1 hour ago, reversaloffortune said:

For freestyle mens right? Set the number at 4.5 and I will take the under.

So you should also take the under on 4 since 4 is a push. 

[MPhillips]

3 hours ago, Hammerlock3 said:

I'd beat anyone who took the under. 

I'll take the under...

[Hammerlock3]

3 minutes ago, MPhillips said:

I'll take the under...

yousonofabitch!!!!

[MPhillips]

Just now, Hammerlock3 said:

yousonofabitch!!!!

We can now...move on.

[nhs67]

2 hours ago, Hammerlock3 said:

no. some people allow ties.

I said typically, which means usually.  My statement was true.

[Hammerlock3]

1 minute ago, nhs67 said:

I said typically, which means usually.  My statement was true.

Over under bets are not typically expected to end in a decimal. They can, but thats like saying numbers are typically odd. 

[nhs67]

7 hours ago, Hammerlock3 said:

Over under bets are not typically expected to end in a decimal. They can, but thats like saying numbers are typically odd. 

You’re wrong.

Check any sportsbook — over/unders are almost always 3.5, 4.5, 7.5, etc., precisely to avoid ties. That’s the typical standard, which is exactly what I said.

I said it that way because I wanted to participate in the practice that’s actually typical, with no scapegoat for a push. I’d wager others would have too, if it were set up in the standard way.

At this point, I’ll concede and let you have your fun.”

[reversaloffortune]

Depends what kind of mood UWW is in.  We could very well get skunked and have a handful of 5th places. (Still don't like the double bronze)

[bnwtwg]

My brain says under at 3. My degenerate gambling side says I'm hammering over 5.5 because I like to make donations from the heart.

[bnwtwg]

Spencer and Snyder are the only locks. In order of medal confidence:

Anything less than a world championship for Spencer will be disappointment.

Snyder and Taz should be seeded apart, so bronze at minimum depending on where the Russian Tank lands. And you know he will be locked in. No QVs to the red light district this time around.

Carr, Zahid, Hendrickson could all 0-1 BBQ or make the world finals and I would just shake my head and say "yep."

Hidlay is getting the homecrowd bump 'round these parts but the reality is 92 is nails even on a post-olympic year. He will have to hit a higher peak than he ever has if he wants to medal.

Haines doesn't seem due yet, but then again he has already made his first world team going into his senior year so who am I to say anything. I am pessimistic, but honestly don't know what to expect so hoping for a good showing.

JUNIOR WORLD CHAMPION Duke will get senior world experience and begin building his career. I hope he draws Musukaev off the scale and doesn't let him take any cig breaks so we can rip the bandaid off and get this show on the road.

Woods will get some good overseas experience at the toughest weight in the world. Good luck Real, Illinois is rooting for you!

Edited 4 hours ago by bnwtwg
i had to put some respeck on Duke's name

[Dark Energy]

You say Snyder is a lock and then say it depends on side Sad gets drawn to.  Definitely NOT a lock, agree?

[Dark Energy]

Per the OP.  4.

[bnwtwg]

6 minutes ago, Dark Energy said:

You say Snyder is a lock and then say it depends on side Sad gets drawn to.  Definitely NOT a lock, agree?

He is a lock for bronze or silver, depending on whether he is on the same half as Sadulaev or not. Learn to read.

Edited 3 hours ago by bnwtwg

[Mr. PeanutButter]

27 minutes ago, bnwtwg said:

Snyder and Taz should be seeded apart, so bronze at minimum depending on where the Russian Tank lands. And you know he will be locked in. No QVs to the red light district this time around.

 

Hard disagree. I set the over/under on marital infidelity episodes for Snyder at 2.5. you just know he is going to book a pre-and-post championships whoring session at minimum

[Ragu]

Hardly think Snyder is a lock this year

[PortaJohn]

On 8/16/2025 at 10:41 PM, Hammerlock3 said:

no. some people allow ties.

Had no idea you're European