Flo's Quarter-Century Team (Recency bias?)

[Wrestle620]

15 hours ago, Husker_Du said:

i can't, for the life of me, understand how some of you are putting Gable over Snyder.

are y'all doing this based simply on your eyeballs? 

The lack of criteria is what makes this more fun. I like the eyeball test/who wins at their peak but we all gotta remember how that has failed us in the past. I can think of several examples where my eyeballs would've had me putting big money on one guy, and it just was flat out wrong.

Metcalf-Caldwell in '09, Askren-Herbert in '06, and Gable-Hendrickson this last year come to mind. It's easy to rationalize those after the fact but they were not at all obvious beforehand. 

To me that stuff makes the Gable-Snyder hypothetical more interesting. My eyeball test says Gable at his peak but the way the paths people found to beating Gable are things I could 100% see Snyder executing. 

[BAC]

15 hours ago, BruceyB said:

Everyone on team Abas is bringing up Lee's loss to Ramos is using one of the biggest upsets in NCAA wrestling history to explain why Lee wasn't better than Abas. The reason that this was one of the biggest upsets is because everybody believed that Lee was untouchable at this weight.

That's not how I remember it. Ramos rag-dolled Lee earlier in the season, running up the score to 8-1 before Lee got on top and pinned him.  That wasn't the only time Lee got put on his back that season either.  The NCAA semis loss was an upset, no doubt, but it wasn't a fluke (Ramos would've won without the pin), and I don't think many following closely thought Lee was untouchable. He was erratic that season--as dominant as ever on top, leading to insane stats, but vulnerable.

Abas, meanwhile, finished his career with a win streak (95) almost equal to Lee's total number of wins (98). Unbeaten his last 3 years at 125 (omitting his bump-up loss as a soph to then-2x defending 133lb champ Guerrero, 5-3, one TD each).  I don't think he had more than 2 or 3 takedowns scored on him in that entire stretch.  I recall the gasps of the arena when Fleeger hit him with an incredibly slick inside trip in the 2002 semis. Abas still majored him, but the idea that someone could score on Abas, let alone beat him, seemed inconceivable.

I'm a big fan of both.  But we shouldn't give any weight to the subjective "wow" factor that Lee gave you unless you also saw Abas compete.  (Not picking on you, Bruce; I saw you picked Abas in the other thread.)

Objectively, when comparing two 3x'ers' careers, inability to get it done as a senior is more problematic than inability to get it done as a freshman. Abas wins on the numbers.

I'm especially unsympathetic to the "but he lost twice at NCAAs" argument about Abas's freshman year.  Nothing is more annoying than assigning consy bracket wins to wrestlers who choose to default out instead of wrestling back, especially when they're physically able to compete. In my book, Lee lost 3x at NCAAs as a senior. I'm not saying he was wrong to default out; if he simply wasn't mentally collected enough to compete, then maybe that was the right call. But mental toughness is part of the sport. Those are losses, both technically and actually. Abas's 4th is qualitatively better than Lee's 6th.

Edited June 12 by BAC

[OMW]

A few items on the Abas/Lee thing:

Abas lost to guys that won multiple NCAA titles. None of Lee's defeaters - including two that pinned him - became NCAA champs.

Abas won as a senior, Lee didn't

Lee won as a freshman, Abas didn't

I just lean more towards Abas being a better collegiate wrestler at his peak than Lee. At their best in college, I wouldn't be surprised if Lee beat Abas. I would be surprised if Abas didn't beat Lee.

Both are/were incredible talents.

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

50 minutes ago, BAC said:

 

I'm especially unsympathetic to the "but he lost twice at NCAAs" argument about Abas's freshman year.  Nothing is more annoying than assigning consy bracket wins to wrestlers who choose to default out instead of wrestling back, especially when they're physically able to compete. In my book, Lee lost 3x at NCAAs as a senior. I'm not saying he was wrong to default out; if he simply wasn't mentally collected enough to compete, then maybe that was the right call. But mental toughness is part of the sport. Those are losses, both technically and actually. Abas's 4th is qualitatively better than Lee's 6th.

No one assigned wins.  They just weren't losses.

Lee not mentally tough?  C'mon.

[fishbane]

3 hours ago, Interviewed_at_Weehawken said:

If I recall correctly, Lee was on a "pitch count" that season and really gearing up for the Olympics.  I think he wrestled day 1 and shut it down by design.  He is absolutely not afraid of Patrick Glory.

You are completely ignoring what Lee did to the US Open field, and especially Vito on December 21, 2019 while not wearing a knee brace.  Midlands was 8 days after outscoring his opponents 50-4 in a field that included NaTo, Nahshon, Cory Clark, Zain Richards Vito, Zach Sanders, Nick Suriano, and Darian Cruz.... but he was afraid of Patrick Glory?

Other Midlands facts that you misrepresented.

1.  He was not facing Glory in the semis.  He was facing Michael DeAugustino.

2.  Patrick Glory struggled mightily in his own semi, needing sudden victory to defeat the immortal Brock Hudkins.

Lee actually wrestled in in what was supposed to be an Olympic year; how many matches did Abas win at Midlands during his Olympic redshirt?

Misrepresentation and PRIMACY EFFECT.

Pitch count and skipping two matches at the Midlands does not sound like he wrestled the entire season.  I am sure the story they were telling at the time was the pitch count to prepare for the Olympics and definitely not any injury.  It wasn't until the after the 2021 NCAA final and having torn the other one that Lee disclosed the ACL tear in the 2019 NCAA finals.  The fact that he had a torn ACL and was skipping matches both point to him being not fully fit.

He was impressive at that Olympic Trials qualifier in December.  I had forgotten the match with Vito. He was wearing something on that knee during the match, but it appeared to be soft - a very "light" brace.   Maybe that was a bad idea or they had the pitch count too high because his next event was Midlands where he defaulted out and by the end of the season he was wearing the full blown knee brace in the Big Ten final.

Ultimately one can only speculate on how Lee could have done at the Olympic Trials.  Although he was impressive in winning that qualifier the favorites to make the team were not there as they had already qualified.  Abas wrestled at the trials in 2000 and lost in the challenge tournament final finishing 3rd on the ladder.  

I am sure Spencer Lee was as unafraid of Pat Glory as Stephen Abas was unafraid of Jeremy Hunter (2000 NCAA Champ), Jody Stritmatter (2000 #1 seed NCAAs, 3rd place finisher, and Midlands runner-up) , and Teague Moore (2000 Midlands champ).  Abas probably skipped Midlands because he was focusing on freestyle and his team was not attending.  He also didn't have the same incentive to wrestle an NCAA season as Lee.  Iowa had not won an NCAA team title in ten years and PSU was rebuilding that year.  Lee could have been the difference between winning a team title.  Indeed that would be the case in 2021.  Had Lee skipped the 2020-21 season to try and prepare for the delayed Olympics Iowa would not have won NCAAs.  Iowa's margin of victory was only 15.5 points.  If Abas was potentially the difference between Fresno winning a team title in 2000 he may have tried to do both as well. 

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

4 minutes ago, fishbane said:

Pitch count and skipping two matches at the Midlands does not sound like he wrestled the entire season.  I am sure the story they were telling at the time was the pitch count to prepare for the Olympics and definitely not any injury.  It wasn't until the after the 2021 NCAA final and having torn the other one that Lee disclosed the ACL tear in the 2019 NCAA finals.  The fact that he had a torn ACL and was skipping matches both point to him being not fully fit.

He was impressive at that Olympic Trials qualifier in December.  I had forgotten the match with Vito. He was wearing something on that knee during the match, but it appeared to be soft - a very "light" brace.   Maybe that was a bad idea or they had the pitch count too high because his next event was Midlands where he defaulted out and by the end of the season he was wearing the full blown knee brace in the Big Ten final.

Ultimately one can only speculate on how Lee could have done at the Olympic Trials.  Although he was impressive in winning that qualifier the favorites to make the team were not there as they had already qualified.  Abas wrestled at the trials in 2000 and lost in the challenge tournament final finishing 3rd on the ladder.  

I am sure Spencer Lee was as unafraid of Pat Glory as Stephen Abas was unafraid of Jeremy Hunter (2000 NCAA Champ), Jody Stritmatter (2000 #1 seed NCAAs, 3rd place finisher, and Midlands runner-up) , and Teague Moore (2000 Midlands champ).  Abas probably skipped Midlands because he was focusing on freestyle and his team was not attending.  He also didn't have the same incentive to wrestle an NCAA season as Lee.  Iowa had not won an NCAA team title in ten years and PSU was rebuilding that year.  Lee could have been the difference between winning a team title.  Indeed that would be the case in 2021.  Had Lee skipped the 2020-21 season to try and prepare for the delayed Olympics Iowa would not have won NCAAs.  Iowa's margin of victory was only 15.5 points.  If Abas was potentially the difference between Fresno winning a team title in 2000 he may have tried to do both as well. 

Wow.  That's a lot.

[fishbane]

2 minutes ago, Interviewed_at_Weehawken said:

Wow.  That's a lot.

Pitch count and defaulting out of Midlands != Wrestled full season

Torn ACL, Knee brace, pitch count, and defaulting out of Midlands != healthy

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

2 minutes ago, fishbane said:

Pitch count and defaulting out of Midlands != Wrestled full season

Torn ACL, Knee brace, pitch count, and defaulting out of Midlands != healthy

No.  I completely disagree with you.  BTW who isn't on a pitch count now?

He walked through the US Open.  No knee brace.  A sleeve.

I saw Abas wrestle with my own eyes.  He was great.  My issue was that you are disputing that Lee was the prohibitive favorite in 2020.  Kind of silly.

Well, the Lee/Abas argument could well be over in a few months, anyway...

[BAC]

40 minutes ago, Interviewed_at_Weehawken said:

No one assigned wins.  They just weren't losses.

Lee not mentally tough?  C'mon.

So if only Abas was smart enough to MFF out of NCAAs his freshman year, instead of wrestling back and taking a loss en route, THEN (and only then) he might be as good as Lee, since he could say he has "only one loss"? 

C'mon. Stop rewarding guys who don't compete.

No one said Lee isn't mentally tough in general.  Dude's endured a lot. But on that day in March, he wasn't mentally ready/capable of wrestling back, so he is only 6th best that year.  That equates to three Ls/presumptive Ls.

Edited June 12 by BAC

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

6 minutes ago, BAC said:

So if only Abas was smart enough to MFF out of NCAAs his freshman year, instead of wrestling back and taking a loss en route, THEN (and only then) he might be as good as Lee, since he could say he has "only one loss"? 

C'mon. Stop rewarding guys who don't compete.

No one said Lee isn't mentally tough in general.  Dude's endured a lot. But on that day in March, he wasn't mentally ready/capable of wrestling back, so he is only 6th best that year.  That equates to three Ls/presumptive Ls.

You're missing the main argument. Fishbane is basically claiming that Lee wasn't or shouldn't have been a big favorite to win in 2020.  That is insane.

Abas was in his second year of college wrestling BTW, when he took those losses.  Pyles' argument was (I think) that Lee's first four years were pretty darned good and that we hold the last NCAA tournament against him, which was year 6 and he was planning on being done.

[fishbane]

Just now, Interviewed_at_Weehawken said:

You're missing the main argument. Fishbane is basically claiming that Lee wasn't or shouldn't have been a big favorite to win in 2020.  That is insane.

Abas was in his second year of college wrestling BTW, when he took those losses.  Pyles' argument was (I think) that Lee's first four years were pretty darned good and that we hold the last NCAA tournament against him, which was year 6 and he was planning on being done.

You keep inventing things that I am not arguing to argue against.  I never said Lee wasn't or shouldn't have been a big favorite to win in 2020.  Lee has been the favorite in every match he has ever lost before 2024.  I never said that Lee was afraid of Glory.  I said you mischaracterized that Spencer Lee wrestled the whole season, was healthy, and was in peak shape.  He was on a pitch count, had a torn acl, and though he looked great he didn't wrestle the top contenders in either folkstyle or freestyle.

[BAC]

22 minutes ago, Interviewed_at_Weehawken said:

Well, the Lee/Abas argument could well be over in a few months, anyway...

What, at Worlds?  I'm pretty sure the "quarter-century" team is focused on folkstyle, not freestyle.  Lee winning Worlds wouldn't move the needle on Abas being the clearly better pick at 125lbs in folk.

Heck, if it were focused on freestyle, both Abas and Lee would be behind Gilman and Cejudo, whose accomplishments eclipse both of them.

I'll grant you that if Lee wins Worlds this year -- and I'll be screaming my head off for him to do so -- it'll mean he's had a better freestyle career than Abas, who never won a title. Abas was pretty darn good though -- Olympic silver, and in 2003, he upset the 2x Russian Olympic champ Mavlet Batirov (but ended up 5th).  Retired too soon, though came back in '08 and lost in OTT finals, 2 matches to 1, vs. Cejudo who, as we know, took gold that year.

It's funny, in 2005, when selections done by a panel of experts rather than the whims of brand-new fans, Abas was named to the NCAA's 75th Anniversary team, as one of the 15 best collegiate wrestlers of all time (here). The only other wrestlers deemed worthy to be mentioned alongside Abas in the lightweight division were Brands (Tom), Gable, Smith and Uetake. Fast-forward 20 years, and Abas can't even get picked over a guy who took 6th as a senior, and Pyles' last video has Abas behind even 1x'er Robles.  Sigh.

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

2 minutes ago, fishbane said:

You keep inventing things that I am not arguing to argue against.  I never said Lee wasn't or shouldn't have been a big favorite to win in 2020.  Lee has been the favorite in every match he has ever lost before 2024.  I never said that Lee was afraid of Glory.  I said you mischaracterized that Spencer Lee wrestled the whole season, was healthy, and was in peak shape.  He was on a pitch count, had a torn acl, and though he looked great he didn't wrestle the top contenders in either folkstyle or freestyle.

That was not your argument.  There was never a reason to mention Pat Glory otherwise.

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

Just now, BAC said:

What, at Worlds?  I'm pretty sure the "quarter-century" team is focused on folkstyle, not freestyle.  Lee winning Worlds wouldn't move the needle on Abas being the clearly better pick at 125lbs in folk.

Heck, if it were focused on freestyle, both Abas and Lee would be behind Gilman and Cejudo, whose accomplishments eclipse both of them.

 

Wrong and wrong, at least as far as this quarter century team goes.  

See... you don't even know what you are arguing.

[Husker_Du]

3 hours ago, Wrestle620 said:

The lack of criteria is what makes this more fun. I like the eyeball test/who wins at their peak but we all gotta remember how that has failed us in the past. I can think of several examples where my eyeballs would've had me putting big money on one guy, and it just was flat out wrong.

Metcalf-Caldwell in '09, Askren-Herbert in '06, and Gable-Hendrickson this last year come to mind. It's easy to rationalize those after the fact but they were not at all obvious beforehand. 

To me that stuff makes the Gable-Snyder hypothetical more interesting. My eyeball test says Gable at his peak but the way the paths people found to beating Gable are things I could 100% see Snyder executing. 

fair point. it is more interested.

[fishbane]

7 minutes ago, Interviewed_at_Weehawken said:

That was not your argument.  There was never a reason to mention Pat Glory otherwise.

The reason for mentioning not wrestling Glory and the relatively weak competition Lee faced in 2020 and 2021 was two fold.  It refutes the FRL presumption that Lee had a tougher schedule than Abas.  It also brings into question how healthy and unaffected Lee was with a torn ACL.  Looking dominant against lesser competition doesn't mean he wasn't limited by the injury.  Lee wrestled his senior year in high school with a torn ACL.  He was dominant and a prohibitive favorite when he lost to DeSanto in the state final. 

[BAC]

52 minutes ago, Interviewed_at_Weehawken said:

Wrong and wrong, at least as far as this quarter century team goes.  

See... you don't even know what you are arguing.

I'm not sure what I'm saying that's confusing you or that you disagree with.  I think I'm being pretty clear.

[Jason Bryant]

What, at Worlds?  I'm pretty sure the "quarter-century" team is focused on folkstyle, not freestyle.  Lee winning Worlds wouldn't move the needle on Abas being the clearly better pick at 125lbs in folk.
Heck, if it were focused on freestyle, both Abas and Lee would be behind Gilman and Cejudo, whose accomplishments eclipse both of them.
I'll grant you that if Lee wins Worlds this year -- and I'll be screaming my head off for him to do so -- it'll mean he's had a better freestyle career than Abas, who never won a title. Abas was pretty darn good though -- Olympic silver, and in 2003, he upset the 2x Russian Olympic champ Mavlet Batirov (but ended up 5th).  Retired too soon, though came back in '08 and lost in OTT finals, 2 matches to 1, vs. Cejudo who, as we know, took gold that year.
It's funny, in 2005, when selections done by a panel of experts rather than the whims of brand-new fans, Abas was named to the NCAA's 75th Anniversary team, as one of the 15 best collegiate wrestlers of all time (here). The only other wrestlers deemed worthy to be mentioned alongside Abas in the lightweight division were Brands (Tom), Gable, Smith and Uetake. Fast-forward 20 years, and Abas can't even get picked over a guy who took 6th as a senior, and Pyles' last video has Abas behind even 1x'er Robles.  Sigh.

Fan vote was HEAVY on the 75th anniversary team - which is why Gray Simons was excluded.

[scourge165]

20 hours ago, Husker_Du said:

i can't, for the life of me, understand how some of you are putting Gable over Snyder.

are y'all doing this based simply on your eyeballs? 

I can't for the life of me understand how you're NOT putting Gable over Snyder(I can, I just want to pretend like this is such a big gap that I need to exaggerate it). 

Gable may not have Snyder's quickness(but it's not that big of a gap) but he's got 40 pound on him. 

 

NOBODY is questioning this if Gable doesn't have one of the biggest upsets of all-time(maybe the biggest upset) this year. 

Then he'd just have lost to Cessar as a Freshmen and rolled the next 3 years beating some...big time studs. And while Snyder did the same...he did it at a much lighter weight though...obviously same weight class. 

[Husker_Du]

again - i'm not looking at hypothetic Snyder vs. Gable in a wrestling match. 

i'm looking at the paper resume. 3 > 2

[BloodRound]

Gas Tank Gary is my pick for 285, personally.

[BAC]

57 minutes ago, Jason Bryant said:

Fan vote was HEAVY on the 75th anniversary team - which is why Gray Simons was excluded.

That's right, I forgot the process.  Looking at the article I linked, experts picked 45, then fans picked the top 5 in each weight category.  And, looking at the nominees, there was no doubt a recency effect at play there, too, with very few old-timers on that team.

[Truzzcat]

28 minutes ago, BloodRound said:

Gas Tank Gary is my pick for 285, personally.

never lost a match just ran out of time.

[boathead]

Brent "I lost a match every year, and I lost a year" Metcalf does not belong in the conversation. Sorry not sorry.

I'm not even convinced he was better than schlatter or Gillespie. 149 was special at that time.

Sent from my F92 E 5G using Tapatalk

[scourge165]

22 hours ago, Interviewed_at_Weehawken said:

That's a lot of writing to MISCHARACTERIZE everything.  Was 2020 nationals cancelled or not?  Did Lee ever lose to Pat Glory? Did Lee tech the fearsome Vito in freestyle during that 2019-2020 season?  Did Lee lose twice at NCAA during his second season (like Abas) or ever? (No)

And if Lee places at Worlds in September, the argument is over.

Oh...I did all of this yesterday and walked away and forgot to post it.

But, lets break it down. 

Abas 144-4
Losses
Freshmen year-3
(Duel Loss 4-3)Teague Moore DNP, 4th, 1st, 3rd
Eric Jurgens-2X 11-8, 5-3OT in the QFs and for 3rd place
Jurgens 3,3,1,1
Soph-1X
Eric Guerrero -Lost a 4-3 Match going UP a weight class in a Duel. Guerrero 5,1,1,1

That's 4 losses to a combined 8 NCs, 15 AA(no lower than 5th and 1 year DNP)
He avenged the loss to Moore in the QFs 3-3 TB
-Jurgens went up to 133 the next 3 years
-Guerrero was already up a weight and he had a National Champ at his weight

Spencer Lee 98-6(6 MFF that now count as losses, but...didn't at the time, so not fair to use it against him).
Losses
Freshmen-2
Ronnie Bresser (3-1) DNP, DNP, 7th, 8th
Nathan Tomassello(2-1) 1,3,3,3

Sophomore-3 
Sebastian Rivera(7-2) 6,3,4,3
Nick Piccininni(Fall 4:33) 4, DNP, 5, DNP
Sebastian Rivera (6-4 OT)

Sr-1
Matt Ramos-(Fall 6:59) DNP, 2nd, DNP, 4th

That's 6 losses to 5 Wrestlers with a combined 1 NC, 18 AAs 6 DNPs

There's a big more to it than that obviously...but that's one helluva career. 

 

You're really picking a style here. I think Abas could take Lee down multiple times. I think it's likely Lee could turn Abas. 
Healthy Lee vs Healthy Abas is a contrast in styles and...I think Abas wins 55 out of 100 matches. 

I don't think it's a blowout and if you think it'd be Lee, 60 or 70 out of 100, cool. He's good enough, you could make the argument. But Abas is one of the greats IMO(not that Lee isn't)...it's just more dominant the rest of his career. He's 145-3 if he doesn't bump up and lose a 4-3 match to ANOTHER guy who was a 3X National Champ. 

 

But you have 46 more wins, 3 fewer losses, no MFFs, he finished EVERY tournament he entered, and they both won 3 titles. 6th, 4th...not a huge difference.

 

What Lee does from here on out won't change my mind...Abas taking a Silver didn't factor in. 
 

I also had Abas as one of my top 10-15 all-time, so...I've just been a bigger fan of him than most.