Bonus Points and The 3-Point TD

[Wrestleknownothing]

It has only been two years and I am only looking at the NCAA tournament, so any conclusions are going to be a bit shaky.

And bonus point scoring is notoriously volatile from year to year. Anyway...

I have bonus by type going back to 1988. The only significant rule changes I can think of (other than the 3-point TD) over that time that affect bonus are changes in near fall possibilities. But I do not think they have a significant impact.

The 2-point years are in blue (highlighted) and the 3-point years are in orange (faint). And I use percentage of matches rather than raw numbers because the number of contested matches was highly variable prior to 1998 (ranging from 547 to 636).

Major Decisions

With the advent of the 3-point TD, major decisions jumped last year and this, but they "jumped" from historically low levels. When looked at through the broader trend (dotted line) all they really did is return to the trend. It seems like the 3-point TD has had little effect on the amount of majors at the NCAA tournament so far.

Pin Falls

PF are generally down and have stayed that way with the 3-point TD. I have theorized in the past that this is a direct result of matches ending sooner in TF before they can become PF in the 3-point TD era. For now, I am sticking with this idea even though proof is thin.

Tech Falls

Now this is where we see a pretty big impact. I put two trend lines in all the graphs. The highlighted one is the trend without factoring in 2024 or 2025. For MD and PF you cannot tell that there are two lines because they are on top of each other. But for TF adding in the two years of 3-point TD significantly changes the trend upward. It is clear to me that the immediate effect of the 3-point TD is an appreciable increase in TF.

Did the 3-Point TD "Work"?

I also think (without the data to back it up) that this is (weak) proof that the desired effect of the 3-point TD was achieved. There are more TDs relative to trend. 

If it were simply the case that the same number of TD were occurring but 11-14 point MDs were now 15+ point TFs, and PF were being turned into TF, both with the same number of TD as before, then there would be a decrease in MD (there is not) and a decrease in PF (there is, but it also fits the trend).

 

NOTE:

What the hell happened in 2006? An absurd 16.9% of matches at the NCAA tournament ended in PF?

What an outlier.

Edited Wednesday at 02:33 PM by Wrestleknownothing

[Dogbone]

2 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

If it were simply the case that the same number of TD were occurring but 11-14 point MDs were now 15+ point TFs, and PF were being turned into TF, both with the same number of TD as before, then there would be a decrease in MD (there is not) and a decrease in PF (there is, but it also fits the trend).

Great Info as always.   Couldn't the reason the MD did not decline was the 5-7 point wins are now MDs?   So the 11-14 MD became TF but also the 5-7 pt Dec became MD?   I am not the number guru you are but I would also think there was a higher number of 5-7 pt matches than 11-14 pt matches (with 2 pt TD) creating more opportunities to increase the MD that you are seeing the data. 

[gimpeltf]

Don't forget that the increase in TFs means that if Majs stayed the same, the number of dec must have dropped by the same amount to feed the majors back up to that number.

[ionel]

You lost me at PF.   

[Wrestleknownothing]

13 minutes ago, Dogbone said:

Great Info as always.   Couldn't the reason the MD did not decline was the 5-7 point wins are now MDs?   So the 11-14 MD became TF but also the 5-7 pt Dec became MD?   I am not the number guru you are but I would also think there was a higher number of 5-7 pt matches than 11-14 pt matches (with 2 pt TD) creating more opportunities to increase the MD that you are seeing the data. 

 

9 minutes ago, gimpeltf said:

Don't forget that the increase in TFs means that if Majs stayed the same, the number of dec must have dropped by the same amount to feed the majors back up to that number.

Well that was pretty dumb of me not to include that. You both make a good point.

The number of decisions has a huge amount of volatility, even more than the smaller individual categories of bonus types, which complicates the analysis. But, using the same kind of trend does show exactly what you are talking about.

Bonus, as a single category, has jumped from historical lows. Near MD have become MD, near TF have become TF, but PF have not increased. But the increase in Bonus is greater than the effect of shifting categories. This probably suggest there were a lot of matches finishing close to the barriers of both MD and TF.

[Pablo]

The dynamic of the relationship between MDs and TFs is interesting.  I've seen this in Pablo analysis.  As the difference between the wrestlers increases, we see more MDs and TFs.  But then as the difference gets even bigger, then the numbers of TFs goes up significantly, and the number of MDs goes down.  So TFs come at the expense of MDs.

I have seen a little increase in pins as the difference between them goes up, but it's not huge.  So there isn't a lot of trade off of pins and TFs.

 

[ionel]

But what about the reversal ... can we get some stats on the elusive reversal?  

[Wrestleknownothing]

6 minutes ago, ionel said:

But what about the reversal ... can we get some stats on the elusive reversal?  

I was on top of those numbers, but then they got the best of me.

[D3 for LU]

... and we're still stuck on pinfellery/pinfallery?

D3

[gimpeltf]

35 minutes ago, Pablo said:

I have seen a little increase in pins as the difference between them goes up, but it's not huge.  So there isn't a lot of trade off of pins and TFs.

A feature I had in my old software (80s-early 00s) was a stat showing amount of time wrestled as a ratio (0-1) to amount possibly wrestled (assumed full times 5/6/7 minutes not ot).  What I saw was that that ratio was less a factor of how good some were and more how "bad" both were as in the less skilled wrestlers would often just go to their backs. NCAAs were generally in the mid to upper .90s. A JV HS event could easily be under .50.

[Pablo]

11 minutes ago, gimpeltf said:

A feature I had in my old software (80s-early 00s) was a stat showing amount of time wrestled as a ratio (0-1) to amount possibly wrestled (assumed full times 5/6/7 minutes not ot).  What I saw was that that ratio was less a factor of how good some were and more how "bad" both were as in the less skilled wrestlers would often just go to their backs. NCAAs were generally in the mid to upper .90s. A JV HS event could easily be under .50.

What I've seen in my analysis of rematch data (when two wrestlers come back and wrestle again) is that pins in like the first 90 seconds mean more but after that 90s point, it all means the same.  So, at least at the college level, quick pins result from the big difference between wrestlers, but late pins look to be less indicative.  At least that's where it is now.  I need to add the national tournament matches to my match pairs.  However, right now I'm chugging along calculating end of season rankings.  Hopefully I will have them tomorrow. 

[Jim L]

I think the 

2 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

 

Did the 3-Point TD "Work"?

I also think (without the data to back it up) that this is (weak) proof that the desired effect of the 3-point TD was achieved. There are more TDs relative to trend. 

If it were simply the case that the same number of TD were occurring but 11-14 point MDs were now 15+ point TFs, and PF were being turned into TF, both with the same number of TD as before, then there would be a decrease in MD (there is not) and a decrease in PF (there is, but it also fits the trend).

 

I like the 3 point TD because, to me, it feels that TDs should have more value. A wrestler who gets an actual TD, should be ahead of an opponent who "just" got two escapes. I also believe that it promotes  bigger comebacks. A wrestler down by 3-4 points a that start of third period has a reasonable chance of winning, if he is much better on his feet and especially if  his opponent is gassing.

I don't necessarily buy that it increases stalling in 3rd if the wrestler has a lead. Wrestler are always going to "protect" a lead and shut down their offense if they are ahead late in the match.

[CHROMEBIRD]

Good stuff. Is there a version of the 3-Bonus graphs that have the same Y-axis scale? I am wondering how pronounced (or not) the fitlines are. It looks like the TF rate will be even flatter with a bump starting at the 3TD rule mark.

About the 2006 pinfellery blip: there was a rule change going into the 2006 season that allowed pins and backs as long as any part of the guy getting stuck was inbounds, so maybe that was an adjustment that some wrestlers hadn't fully made on defense by Nationals. I think 2006 was also when wrestlers were first granted a one pound allowance at the tournament after the first day, so that might have favored big cutters at least psychologically if not physiologically that first postseason. Idk

[Wrestleknownothing]

3 hours ago, CHROMEBIRD said:

Good stuff. Is there a version of the 3-Bonus graphs that have the same Y-axis scale? I am wondering how pronounced (or not) the fitlines are. It looks like the TF rate will be even flatter with a bump starting at the 3TD rule mark.

About the 2006 pinfellery blip: there was a rule change going into the 2006 season that allowed pins and backs as long as any part of the guy getting stuck was inbounds, so maybe that was an adjustment that some wrestlers hadn't fully made on defense by Nationals. I think 2006 was also when wrestlers were first granted a one pound allowance at the tournament after the first day, so that might have favored big cutters at least psychologically if not physiologically that first postseason. Idk

[Lipdrag]

9 hours ago, D3 for LU said:

... and we're still stuck on pinfellery/pinfallery?

D3

Pinfoolery.

I love that WKN insists on provoking us all with pinfall.  It's like your grandfather calling you by your given name.  Although you have always gone by Wes he calls you Westmoreland anyway.

[D3 for LU]

On 4/2/2025 at 9:42 PM, Lipdrag said:

Pinfoolery.

I love that WKN insists on provoking us all with pinfall.  It's like your grandfather calling you by your given name.  Although you have always gone by Wes he calls you Westmoreland anyway.

D3