It is happening … now. Tiny tiers. The rest.

[1032004]

3 hours ago, BruceyB said:

Sure, a backup from one of the big teams might be good enough to go somewhere else and get on the podium, but that doesn't mean that the top talent isn't being more heavily condensed in the bigger programs than ever.

The top programs will continue to steal the top wrestlers from smaller programs and due to this, smaller programs will get the lesser wrestlers that transfers out as a result.. SDSU getting Siebrecht, Rhodes, and Glazier is not a positive for the sport. SDSU was able to get those three because Iowa took the top wrestlers from NDSU, Oklahoma, and Arizona State and condensed the talent that used to exist on 3 teams not named Iowa, to now 1 team named Iowa.

This year Oklahoma State's line-up consisted of 6 wrestlers from Minnesota, Michigan State, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Air Force. That talent was spread across 5 different programs not named Oklahoma State. This year, condensed to one program.. Oklahoma State.

Just between Iowa and Oklahoma State this year, they had absorbed talent from 8 different programs into just two.

You think Zeth Romney is going to finish his career at Cal Poly?

 

No clue where Zeth Romney finishes his career, but since we’re talking about “good for the sport,” do you think Wyatt Hendrickson beats Gable Steveson if he wrestles for Air Force this year (assuming he was even allowed to which he wasn’t)?  I don’t.

I just don’t see how the current situation is really all that different than it was in the past.  The mid-tier schools could never get the same recruits the top schools could.  The difference now is they might lose guys they develop, but it’s also easier to get guys that couldn’t make it at the top schools, so seems like kind of a wash to me.  

[1032004]

2 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

This is not a fully formed thought yet so bear with me.

It is possible that we see the relationship between the big programs and the others turn into a sort of reverse minor leagues. 

Let's use the example of Terrell Barraclaugh. He spends four years at PSU behind some real hammers while he perfects his craft (steel sharpens steel stuff). He did not look like an AA for the first three years he was a spot starter. Sure he could hang with the better wrestlers and keep it close, but his best wins were not notable, and his defense was better than his offense. But by year four he is starting to beat the NQ type guys and his development is obvious. Almost like an apprenticeship, he is now ready to go it alone. He takes the offer from UVU (assuming he got some cash), and year five is where he really shines at a program that probably was not going to be able to develop him on the same path PSU could.

Iowa's turnover was a different scenario obviously, as was Oklahoma States', but that does not mean we wont see something similar with guys who cannot make the starting lineup there. Now that they are both pulling in big name recruits their second team may become a feeder system for other schools. 

One thing it does for the UVU's of the world is lessen volatility. They do not have much in NIL to give, so they cannot afford to make mistakes. They may be better off paying for proven commodities, like Barraclaugh, than rolling the dice on high school kids who weren't recruited by bigger names.

The logjam at PSU, and the potential logjam at other big names, could serve as a feeder system for the others. We are seeing that with the number of PSU guys already in the portal.

Agree 100%.  Honestly I wouldn’t be surprised if UVU had no NIL to give.   But they probably have scholarships, which Barraclaugh likely didn’t have at PSU.

There also seems to be a steep dropoff in alleged payments.  If you’re a top 3 or 4 guy, maybe you can get $500k (although I wouldn’t be surprised if that shrinks due to the lack of ROI on Teemer and Parco).   But what does a R12 type guy get?  There were guys like Isaiah Powe, who won a match at NCAA’s as a true freshman but apparently didn’t get a good enough offer to leave UTC (yes I know he is back in the portal).  Even a Caleb Fish probably didn’t get all that much if anything to go to OSU.

[TNwrestling]

4 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

Agree 100%.  Honestly I wouldn’t be surprised if UVU had no NIL to give.   But they probably have scholarships, which Barraclaugh likely didn’t have at PSU.

There also seems to be a steep dropoff in alleged payments.  If you’re a top 3 or 4 guy, maybe you can get $500k (although I wouldn’t be surprised if that shrinks due to the lack of ROI on Teemer and Parco).   But what does a R12 type guy get?  There were guys like Isaiah Powe, who won a match at NCAA’s as a true freshman but apparently didn’t get a good enough offer to leave UTC (yes I know he is back in the portal).  Even a Caleb Fish probably didn’t get all that much if anything to go to OSU.

Powe was dismissed from the Chattanooga team. I'd be surprised if any division 1 team takes him. 

[1032004]

3 minutes ago, TNwrestling said:

Powe was dismissed from the Chattanooga team. I'd be surprised if any division 1 team takes him. 

What happened?

[TNwrestling]

4 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

What happened?

I mean, I've heard rumors...but i wont deal in those..

 

I will say I was told directly, "To be successful you must be willing to live the lifestyle of successful people" and he was not. 

[Wrestleknownothing]

40 minutes ago, Idaho said:

Yep... top level guys who are stuck behind an AA at a big school will transfer down usually, giving a mid-tier team a good transfer (Bear Claw). However, they can always re-enter the portal in one year. Good recruits who get developed at mid-tier schools will get plucked away because of NIL and transfer up. Kids with "circumstances" will often transfer down then back up again (Ferrari). Mid-Tier teams that land an elite recruit, most likely won't keep them (Bailey LR). 

The House settlement has the potential to tip this dynamic in favor of mid-size programs. Virtually every Power 5 school is at or over the roster limit. If the settlement is approved April 7, those programs will become net suppliers of hundreds of wrestlers.

[Alces Alces Gigas]

6 hours ago, Coastal said:

You do realize that Clarion isn't even Clarion any longer but PennWest Clarion.  The only decisions made in the last couple of decades have been trying to stay open.  A college that puts out teachers and nurses isn't likely to get a benefactor to keep the sports programs running on all cylinders.

Im.not. saying the coaches or athletic dept failed it is failure by the institution as a whole. The school has bigger concerns and that's ok 

[wrestle87]

10 hours ago, Alces Alces Gigas said:

Every team in the NCAA has had the same opportunities to raise funds and hire good coaches and build good facilities.  I hate hearing about the haves and have nots.   Some schools chose to  act, some schools didn't!.  This phenomenon does not just apply to recent history  

You have zero understanding of the landscape of higher education finance.

The last time someone was this incorrect they said sun rotated around the earth.

This is boy kisses girl and she pukes out a baby levels of incorrect.

Edited March 26 by wrestle87

[Coastal]

10 minutes ago, Alces Alces Gigas said:

Im.not. saying the coaches or athletic dept failed it is failure by the institution as a whole. The school has bigger concerns and that's ok 

The institution didn't fail as much as aging demographics and a shrinking rural population has an adverse affect on all of the PSAC schools.

[1032004]

36 minutes ago, TNwrestling said:

I mean, I've heard rumors...but i wont deal in those..

 

I will say I was told directly, "To be successful you must be willing to live the lifestyle of successful people" and he was not. 

Lock Haven it is!

[Idaho]

33 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

The House settlement has the potential to tip this dynamic in favor of mid-size programs. Virtually every Power 5 school is at or over the roster limit. If the settlement is approved April 7, those programs will become net suppliers of hundreds of wrestlers.

True.... but are the cast offs - 3rd 4th 5th guys in a weight, going to be of use to a mid-size program? I see them being more of an asset to very small programs in D1 , D2 or NAIA. 

[Idaho]

 

50 minutes ago, TNwrestling said:

Powe was dismissed from the Chattanooga team. I'd be surprised if any division 1 team takes him. 

I heard Bakersfield does a pretty good job in these kinds of situations. 

[Wrestleknownothing]

23 minutes ago, Idaho said:

True.... but are the cast offs - 3rd 4th 5th guys in a weight, going to be of use to a mid-size program? I see them being more of an asset to very small programs in D1 , D2 or NAIA. 

I am sure it depends. Guys like Barraclough, Sealey and Evans are probably #3 guys that a lot of people would want. But it won't just be that. If a guy is in his third or fourth year without being a starter, and room needs to be made for the next hot recruit with four years of eligibilty left, I can see a coach saying "we can help find you a spot elsewhere, but here our roster size is constrained."

[scourge165]

10 hours ago, Caveira said:

Should the scoring record being broken twice in a row be more of an indicator or no ?    The almost 30 year old record.  

No

[BruceyB]

4 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

The House settlement has the potential to tip this dynamic in favor of mid-size programs. Virtually every Power 5 school is at or over the roster limit. If the settlement is approved April 7, those programs will become net suppliers of hundreds of wrestlers.

This is what I hope helps brings some significant change to the current landscape. Especially in the recent NIL era, scholarships are obsolete because collectives can essentially fun unlimited scholarships for programs with money. If you have the money, you can have 100 people on your roster getting full ride scholarships. However, once you have to consider who makes your roster, and who you want to make space for, a lot of talent will be dispersed. 

This is the same reason professional sports have roster limits.. If they didn't.. who knows.. the Dodger's might have the best 25 man roster in the MLB and then an entire farm system of MLB caliber players who are making more money sitting in AAA than they would be making at an entry level deal for another MLB team.

[BruceyB]

5 hours ago, 1032004 said:

I just don’t see how the current situation is really all that different than it was in the past.

The difference is that you used to get multi-time All-Americans and occasional national champions from smaller schools. The odds of that happening in the current landscape is very unlikely.

The thought throughout most of college wrestling's history when a small school produced a young AA was that their program was on the rise, and they were doing good things there. They might produce their first National Champion, they might continue to build and set a school best in NCAA placement in upcoming years.. etc. Now the first thought when someone has success from a smaller school is "where are they going to wrestle next year?" Now it's a surprise if a guy sticks around at a smaller school rather than jump to the higher bidding bigger program. How you don't think it's much different from before, I can't wrap my head around. Smaller schools will continue to lose damn near every single one of their AA caliber wrestlers. There is no more "building up" a smaller program. You can only build up individuals and serve as a development program for the bigger schools.

 

 

[1032004]

17 minutes ago, BruceyB said:

The difference is that you used to get multi-time All-Americans and occasional national champions from smaller schools. The odds of that happening in the current landscape is very unlikely.

The thought throughout most of college wrestling's history when a small school produced a young AA was that their program was on the rise, and they were doing good things there. They might produce their first National Champion, they might continue to build and set a school best in NCAA placement in upcoming years.. etc. Now the first thought when someone has success from a smaller school is "where are they going to wrestle next year?" Now it's a surprise if a guy sticks around at a smaller school rather than jump to the higher bidding bigger program. How you don't think it's much different from before, I can't wrap my head around. Smaller schools will continue to lose damn near every single one of their AA caliber wrestlers. There is no more "building up" a smaller program. You can only build up individuals and serve as a development program for the bigger schools.

 

 

C’mon, saying “smaller schools will continue to lose damn near every single one of their AA caliber wrestlers” is hyperbole.  

Yea, “the thought” might be will a guy from a smaller school enter the portal, but they’re not always going to.

Depending on how we define “smaller school,” the last “smaller school” champ was probably Andrew Alirez and he stayed put (yes they probably had to pay him to do that).  Looking at past results, when was the last smaller school champ before that?  2010 if we count Harvard?  If not, 2009 (Edinboro)?

The point is there has never been parity in terms of more than a few teams having a chance to win.  I’ve said this line before but really the only gap that’s growing is the one between PSU and everyone else.  There has seemed to be a lot of variation between 2-5 in recent years however.