NCAA #1 seeds

[jajensen09]

11 hours ago, SocraTease said:

I can't see any scenario where Keckheisen gets #1 over Starocci.

What kind of schedule did Trephen have?  Can't imagine his wins are as good as Kerkviliet.

I also don't like Ramos over Llilledahl, especially since LL just majored him.  Fresh in folks minds.

Kharchala at #4 is weak.  But there is a big drop off after the first 3

Mendez won't be over hardy or hapel. 

 

[cowcards]

1 hour ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Starocci v Keckeisen:

• 25 H2H is N/A.
• 20 Quality wins is going to be real close between Starocci and Keckeisen. It will come down to how their opponents are ranked in the final coaches' poll as they both have a lot of QW's. 
• 15 Tournament finish is a push
• 10 Coaches' rank probably favors Starocci
• 10 common opponents is a push
• 10 win percentage is a push
• 10 RPI favors Starocci

So I think Starocci wins the formula and I do not see the committee reversing that.

 

The RPI is going to favor Keckeisen.

It's going to come down to Quality Wins (Last coaches rank).

Keck:
#3 x3
#5 x2
#6 x1 by fall
#10 x 2
#11 x1 by (MD 17-4)

Carter:
#4 x1
#6 x1 by major
#9 x2
#11 x 1 by MD (10-1)

Keck clearly has more and better wins. He also has a better result against the Allred. I do agree that the committee won't change the order of whatever the calculation comes out with. Just think it will be Keck. 

[Elevator]

hopefully for the sake of the fans, we get to see Keck v McEnelly in one semi and Plott v. Starocci in the other

[Chas2105]

1 hour ago, cowcards said:

The RPI is going to favor Keckeisen.

It's going to come down to Quality Wins (Last coaches rank).

Keck:
#3 x3
#5 x2
#6 x1 by fall
#10 x 2
#11 x1 by (MD 17-4)

Carter:
#4 x1
#6 x1 by major
#9 x2
#11 x 1 by MD (10-1)

Keck clearly has more and better wins. He also has a better result against the Allred. I do agree that the committee won't change the order of whatever the calculation comes out with. Just think it will be Keck. 

Quality wins only count once for each wrestler and how the match was won isn't a factor. There is a formula based on win %, coaches rank and RPI. The RPI ranking I used is Wrestlestat's, so it may not be 100% correct. Shumate probably won't count since he is 197. Starocci currently should be ahead in quality wins.

Rec Win % CR RPI Pts

Plott 18-4 0.818 3 2 4.5

Berge 26-5 0.838 6 5 4.5

Bockman 14-7 0.667 5 10 2

Brenot 20-15 0.571 24 30 0.5

Shumate 18-14 0.562 16 26 0.5

 

McEnelly 20-1 0.952 4 4 6

Ruth 14-7 0.667 14 12 2

Smith 20-7 0.741 10 9 3

Washington 13-8 0.619 27 28 0.5

Cartegena-Walsh 21-10 0.677 16 16 2

Edited 1 hour ago by Chas2105

[cowcards]

16 minutes ago, Chas2105 said:

Quality wins only count once for each wrestler and how the match was won isn't a factor. There is a formula based on win %, coaches rank and RPI. The RPI ranking I used is Wrestlestat's, so it may not be 100% correct. Shumate probably won't count since he is 197. Starocci currently should be ahead in quality wins.

Rec Win % CR RPI Pts

Plott 18-4 0.818 3 2 4.5

Berge 26-5 0.838 6 5 4.5

Bockman 14-7 0.667 5 10 2

Brenot 20-15 0.571 24 30 0.5

Shumate 18-14 0.562 16 26 0.5

 

McEnelly 20-1 0.952 4 4 6

Ruth 14-7 0.667 14 12 2

Smith 20-7 0.741 10 9 3

Washington 13-8 0.619 27 28 0.5

Cartegena-Walsh 21-10 0.677 16 16 2

I don't know you're getting at with these...

If you replace the coaches rank with the RPI you get this:

Keck:
#2 x3
#5 x 2
#6 x2
#15 x1 by fall
#22 x1 by (MD 17-4)
#24 x 2

Carter:
#4 x1
#10 x2
#15 x1 by major
#14 x1
#16 x1
#22 x1 by MD (10-1)
#25 x11

Keck still comes out on top and actually looks even better. The 2 matchups that are the same wouldn't count towards quality wins, they would count towards common opponents.

The only metric that is in favor of Starocci is the coaches rank.
RPI, Common Opponents, Quality wins are in favor of Keck.
Win %, H2H, Tourney finish are even.

[Wrestleknownothing]

1 hour ago, cowcards said:

The RPI is going to favor Keckeisen.

It's going to come down to Quality Wins (Last coaches rank).

Keck:
#3 x3
#5 x2
#6 x1 by fall
#10 x 2
#11 x1 by (MD 17-4)

Carter:
#4 x1
#6 x1 by major
#9 x2
#11 x 1 by MD (10-1)

Keck clearly has more and better wins. He also has a better result against the Allred. I do agree that the committee won't change the order of whatever the calculation comes out with. Just think it will be Keck. 

Yeah, I looked at the wrong list for RPI. That is Keckeisen's.

QW is a category that can be split. I don't think there is enough separation for one guy getting 20 and the other getting zero. Instead it will likely be either 15/5 or 10/10.

So I think Starocci has 10 (CR), Keckeisen does have 10 (RPI), they split QW 15/5 in one direction or the other. I think Starocci has more QW, but they are close enough that it will come down to the QW points tiering:

I assume those columns are ORs not ANDs. So if the opponent had a 90% win, or top 5 CR, or top 5 RPI, the win is worth 6 QW points.

[Chas2105]

5 minutes ago, cowcards said:

I don't know you're getting at with these...

If you replace the coaches rank with the RPI you get this:

Keck:
#2 x3
#5 x 2
#6 x2
#15 x1 by fall
#22 x1 by (MD 17-4)
#24 x 2

Carter:
#4 x1
#10 x2
#15 x1 by major
#14 x1
#16 x1
#22 x1 by MD (10-1)
#25 x11

Keck still comes out on top and actually looks even better. The 2 matchups that are the same wouldn't count towards quality wins, they would count towards common opponents.

The only metric that is in favor of Starocci is the coaches rank.
RPI, Common Opponents, Quality wins are in favor of Keck.
Win %, H2H, Tourney finish are even.

Using the formula above Plott is 4.5 since he does not have a win $ above .900. Berge is also 4.5, Bockman 2, Brenot .5 and Shumate shouldn't count since a quality win is vs the field and he is 197. This would give Keck 11.5. For Star you have Max at 6, Smith at 3, Ruth and C-W 2 and Washington .5 for a total of 13.5. You don't count the multiple wins vs the same guy.

[Wrestleknownothing]

4 minutes ago, Chas2105 said:

Using the formula above Plott is 4.5 since he does not have a win $ above .900. Berge is also 4.5, Bockman 2, Brenot .5 and Shumate shouldn't count since a quality win is vs the field and he is 197. This would give Keck 11.5. For Star you have Max at 6, Smith at 3, Ruth and C-W 2 and Washington .5 for a total of 13.5. You don't count the multiple wins vs the same guy.

Are you sure about that last part? I have wondered, but I cannot find anything that says one way or the other.

[PortaJohn]

8 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Are you sure about that last part? I have wondered, but I cannot find anything that says one way or the other.

That's how it was explained by Flo a few years back.  

Paging @Jon_Kozak

Edited 51 minutes ago by PortaJohn

[Wrestleknownothing]

Ultimately Starocci v Keckeisen may come down to the opinions of these four men.

Big 12 Conference Mark Branch 197

Big 12 Conference Obenson Blanc 197

Big Ten Conference Alex Clemsen 197

Big Ten Conference Chris Bono 197

[Chas2105]

27 minutes ago, PortaJohn said:

That's how it was explained by Flo a few years back.  

Paging @Jon_Kozak

That's where I seen it as well.

[Jon_Kozak]

44 minutes ago, PortaJohn said:

That's how it was explained by Flo a few years back.  

Paging @Jon_Kozak

Yeah you've got it right