O'Toole vs Haines odds

[BruceyB]

I'm curious if I'm the only one that feels like KOT is not getting enough respect in the matchup with Haines. I'm not taking away anything from Haines who just went undefeated in his true soph year, but it seems like a lot of people think it's a 50/50 matchup or might even favor Haines. Outside of a Carr matchup, when was the last time during a match you thought KOT was going to lose? He's had some close'ish matches, but the win never really has seemed in doubt, even in those. Hell, the Braunagel match this year was probably about the worst he's looked in the last three years, and he ended up with a major. 

All that to say, hopefully they both go undefeated into the NCAA finals.

[BarSeries]

1 minute ago, BruceyB said:

All that to say, hopefully they both go undefeated into the NCAA finals.

What about December 22nd?

[MizzouFan01]

34 minutes ago, BruceyB said:

I'm curious if I'm the only one that feels like KOT is not getting enough respect in the matchup with Haines. I'm not taking away anything from Haines who just went undefeated in his true soph year, but it seems like a lot of people think it's a 50/50 matchup or might even favor Haines. Outside of a Carr matchup, when was the last time during a match you thought KOT was going to lose? He's had some close'ish matches, but the win never really has seemed in doubt, even in those. Hell, the Braunagel match this year was probably about the worst he's looked in the last three years, and he ended up with a major. 

All that to say, hopefully they both go undefeated into the NCAA finals.

Last years match with WVU, Peyton Hall gave him all he could handle, with KOT pulling it out close with about a minute left in the third and riding out. Hall almost had the chance to tie it late but to no avail. 

Edited December 13 by MizzouFan01

[1032004]

Who’s not giving him respect?  Flo and Intermat both have him #1

[BruceyB]

47 minutes ago, BarSeries said:

What about December 22nd?

Ah, yes. That does pose a threat to them both going undefeated. I didn't actually check their schedules.

 

5 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

Who’s not giving him respect?  Flo and Intermat both have him #1

When it comes to rankings, I think it would be hard to argue against Keegan. But, the conjecture around the matchup (maybe it's just a lot of noise from PSU homers and CP) seems to put a lot of stock into a backside freestyle win by Haines at WTT. 

I could be completely wrong and most people favor Keegan. Maybe I should have clarified in the original post. 

If it's an even money line, who are you picking, Haines or O'Toole?

[MLB9]

There’s at least some merit to the freestyle match, however small. It showed any size concerns wouldn’t be an issue and that they’re generally the same tier of wrestler. There’s more in that Haines has been a finalist each year he’s wrestled in college and is a defending national champion. Obviously he’s legit and elite.
 

Why would you consider KOT the favorite? Fwiw, I want Haines to win but would pick KOT.

[flyingcement]

I would predict O'Toole by a hair

[PortaJohn]

16 minutes ago, BruceyB said:

Ah, yes. That does pose a threat to them both going undefeated. I didn't actually check their schedules.

 

When it comes to rankings, I think it would be hard to argue against Keegan. But, the conjecture around the matchup (maybe it's just a lot of noise from PSU homers and CP) seems to put a lot of stock into a backside freestyle win by Haines at WTT. 

I could be completely wrong and most people favor Keegan. Maybe I should have clarified in the original post. 

If it's an even money line, who are you picking, Haines or O'Toole?

I've noticed people thinking Haines is the slight  favorite but as a PSU homer myself I've felt like it's more from non PSU crowd

[BruceyB]

2 minutes ago, MLB9 said:

There’s at least some merit to the freestyle match, however small. It showed any size concerns wouldn’t be an issue and that they’re generally the same tier of wrestler. There’s more in that Haines has been a finalist each year he’s wrestled in college and is a defending national champion. Obviously he’s legit and elite.
 

Why would you consider KOT the favorite? Fwiw, I want Haines to win but would pick KOT.

I don't disagree with a word that you said. As far as who is the favorite, I would argue that Keegan goes into the matchup a very slight favorite in Vegas odds because he has a longer track record, and I would argue, better wins in his career. We have a better idea of what Keegan's level is because he has wins over guys like Carr, Griffith, Caliendo, Hamiti, etc. Haines hasn't had the opportunities yet to notch wins of that caliber, so there is more unknown.

 

[MLB9]

14 minutes ago, BruceyB said:

I don't disagree with a word that you said. As far as who is the favorite, I would argue that Keegan goes into the matchup a very slight favorite in Vegas odds because he has a longer track record, and I would argue, better wins in his career. We have a better idea of what Keegan's level is because he has wins over guys like Carr, Griffith, Caliendo, Hamiti, etc. Haines hasn't had the opportunities yet to notch wins of that caliber, so there is more unknown.

 

I feel that as well. His style attracts confidence and support more than Haines’ I think. I don’t know, maybe the biggest factor working for Haines in a match that feels pretty even is that, well…he wrestles for Penn State. They make adjustments and they win in March. I would quite likely pick O’Toole straight up next weekend(hopefully it happens), but if it’s a nail biter and depending on what the loss looks like(if so), maybe take take Haines in a few months. 

[Jimmy Cinnabon]

KOT 8-3

[BAC]

3 hours ago, BruceyB said:

I'm curious if I'm the only one that feels like KOT is not getting enough respect in the matchup with Haines. I'm not taking away anything from Haines who just went undefeated in his true soph year, but it seems like a lot of people think it's a 50/50 matchup or might even favor Haines. Outside of a Carr matchup, when was the last time during a match you thought KOT was going to lose? He's had some close'ish matches, but the win never really has seemed in doubt, even in those. Hell, the Braunagel match this year was probably about the worst he's looked in the last three years, and he ended up with a major. 

All that to say, hopefully they both go undefeated into the NCAA finals.

I'm not sure why you characterize seeing this as a 50-50 match means "KOT is not getting enough respect."  Heck you yourself say you "would argue that Keegan goes into the matchup a very slight favorite."  So giving 55-45 to O'Toole is being respectful, giving 50-50 odds isn't?  

I think there's room for differences of opinion here without being disrespectful to either wrestler.  Both have won national titles, neither placed worse than third, both average 1 loss a year. Haines beat him in freestyle 6-0 a few months ago, but I don't think anyone would be surprised if O'Toole reversed that result.

Put me in the camp of slightly favoring Haines.

[MLB9]

2 hours ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said:

KOT 8-3

Haines it is then. Can we please get someone else’s prediction? 

Merry Christmas to you Jimmy

[BruceyB]

1 hour ago, BAC said:

I'm not sure why you characterize seeing this as a 50-50 match means "KOT is not getting enough respect."  Heck you yourself say you "would argue that Keegan goes into the matchup a very slight favorite."  So giving 55-45 to O'Toole is being respectful, giving 50-50 odds isn't?  

I think there's room for differences of opinion here without being disrespectful to either wrestler.  Both have won national titles, neither placed worse than third, both average 1 loss a year. Haines beat him in freestyle 6-0 a few months ago, but I don't think anyone would be surprised if O'Toole reversed that result.

Put me in the camp of slightly favoring Haines.

I don't disagree with you. I phrased the question for this kind of discussion. Should they be viewed equally? Should Keegan get the benefit of the doubt until Haines notches a folkstyle win that proves he's on KOT's level? Does Haines freestyle win make him the favorite? I think all views are fair, and that is the fun of talking about the matchup. 

[Pinnacle]

I semi feel as if the match will mirror their freestyle match, so a win for Haines.

[PortaJohn]

24 minutes ago, BruceyB said:

I don't disagree with you. I phrased the question for this kind of discussion. Should they be viewed equally? Should Keegan get the benefit of the doubt until Haines notches a folkstyle win that proves he's on KOT's level? Does Haines freestyle win make him the favorite? I think all views are fair, and that is the fun of talking about the matchup. 

Yes & No.  When using freestyle to predict folk outcomes the best we can do is assess the positions/sequences that most reflect folk.  Watching their match it is clear KOT (like others) struggled with Levi's neutral defense.   The missing ingredient in their match was the mat wrestling which KOT is very solid  at and is a strength of his.  But at the same time Levi although not as savvy at mat wrestling as KOT is stout in those positions himself.  On the mat he has had a good track record of maintaining position, is very strong, and has good situational awareness.  It will be a hell of a chess match.

 

[BAC]

14 hours ago, BruceyB said:

I don't disagree with you. I phrased the question for this kind of discussion. Should they be viewed equally? Should Keegan get the benefit of the doubt until Haines notches a folkstyle win that proves he's on KOT's level? Does Haines freestyle win make him the favorite? I think all views are fair, and that is the fun of talking about the matchup. 

Gotcha.  Yeah, before the freestyle match I'd have given KOT the edge, but after their last match I'd the slight edge to Haines since, freestyle or not, it was two TDs to none.  Simplistic, yes, but I don't think unreasonable.

[KCMO2]

22 hours ago, BarSeries said:

What about December 22nd?

Given Smith's history of holding guys out, this is definitely not a done deal.

[Hammerlock3]

On 12/13/2024 at 5:45 PM, 1032004 said:

Who’s not giving him respect?  Flo and Intermat both have him #1

i wish i could outlaw people mentioning their perceptions of pubic perception, myself included. 

[CHROMEBIRD]

7 hours ago, BAC said:

Gotcha.  Yeah, before the freestyle match I'd have given KOT the edge, but after their last match I'd the slight edge to Haines since, freestyle or not, it was two TDs to none.  Simplistic, yes, but I don't think unreasonable.

I'd be inclined to take KOT over Haines in folkstyle too but yeah, Haines was solid on his feet in that FS match and getting to O'Tooles legs. If that was a folkstyle match the final score could've been something like 13-6.

Some additional, minor factors that could work in Haines' favor are: 1) he's a more complete 174lb/79kg physically now than he was during WTT, and 2) he has Mesenbrink in the room to help him gameplan for KOT.

[Dark Energy]

Frankly, after the freestyle match I’m surprised if consensus has Keegan as favorite.  I’d lean Haines.  
 

What is cool is that you know both camps have done a ton to review that match and are game planning.  The next result will also largely reflect on the coaching / adjustments.  Will be fun.

[MidwestMan]

15 hours ago, KCMO2 said:

Given Smith's history of holding guys out, this is definitely not a done deal.

This!  I thought this from the time I saw the possibility of a O'toole-Hanes match up in the duals.  I've already stated how I think that match is going to go in another post.

O'tool trains in Mizzou's room, Hanes trains in P.States.  

[red viking]

I don't think his heart is into wrestling as much as it was in the past. He's looking forward to next chapters in his life. 

[BruceyB]

5 hours ago, red viking said:

I don't think his heart is into wrestling as much as it was in the past. He's looking forward to next chapters in his life. 

Based on what? His 100% bonus rate this year? He's a Jr World Champ that I'm fairly certain has Worlds and Olympics on his mind.

[red viking]

3 hours ago, BruceyB said:

Based on what? His 100% bonus rate this year? He's a Jr World Champ that I'm fairly certain has Worlds and Olympics on his mind.

His interview after he lost to Carr last year.