Why Isn't Mendez ranked #1?

[Truzzcat]

15 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

I just read the Flo justification for ranking Steveson above Starocci in the pound for pound rankings and it turned on loses occurring in 2019 for Steveson and 2021 for Starocci's along with bonus rates (@Truzzcat).

So there must not be a time limit.

In that case Mendez had a better 2023 season than Alirez had 2022 so dating back to the last two season which are the only ones you could cite given Mendez only has two he should be 1.

[MPhillips]

8 hours ago, Jon_Kozak said:

It's really that simple.

[Wrestleknownothing]

9 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

I believe they’ve acknowledged P4P has more of a subjectiveness to it, no?

If we’re talking Ferrari, don’t we have to acknowledge his loss to Glazier?  I know they don’t count injury defaults, not sure if there is a policy on post match DQ’s.

Then let's look at Steveson's 285 ranking logic. They have him first "based on top ten wins over Greg Kerkvliet, Wyatt Hendrickson, Cohlton Schultz, Taye Ghadiali, and Luke Luffman." Those wins all occurred in 2021 and 2022.

Now let's compare that to Ferrari's 197 ranking logic. They have him fourth, reasoning "Ferrari hasn't wrestled anyone other than Buchanan ranked in the top 8 and his wins over Buchanan were over two years ago." They also ask the question, "but should he be ahead of Buchanan, Cardenas, and Elam who have all competed at least two NCAA Tournaments since AJ Ferrari won his title?" And their answer is no as revealed by their rankings.

So they discount Ferrari's wins because they were over two years ago, but include Steveson's wins even though they were over two years ago. They also think that having competed at two or more NCAA tournaments since Ferrari's last title is enough to promote non-winners of those tournaments above Ferrari, but Kerkvliet, who has also wrestled  at two tournaments since Steveson won his last title, does not get the same benefit. And unlike any of the three ahead of Ferrari, Kerkvliet has actually won a tournament. The most recent.

[1032004]

25 minutes ago, Truzzcat said:

In that case Mendez had a better 2023 season than Alirez had 2022 so dating back to the last two season which are the only ones you could cite given Mendez only has two he should be 1.

I don’t think they’re looking at 2022, or even 2023 for Mendez.  They’re comparing 2024 Mendez vs 2023 Alirez

[1032004]

37 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Then let's look at Steveson's 285 ranking logic. They have him first "based on top ten wins over Greg Kerkvliet, Wyatt Hendrickson, Cohlton Schultz, Taye Ghadiali, and Luke Luffman." Those wins all occurred in 2021 and 2022.

Now let's compare that to Ferrari's 197 ranking logic. They have him fourth, reasoning "Ferrari hasn't wrestled anyone other than Buchanan ranked in the top 8 and his wins over Buchanan were over two years ago." They also ask the question, "but should he be ahead of Buchanan, Cardenas, and Elam who have all competed at least two NCAA Tournaments since AJ Ferrari won his title?" And their answer is no as revealed by their rankings.

So they discount Ferrari's wins because they were over two years ago, but include Steveson's wins even though they were over two years ago. They also think that having competed at two or more NCAA tournaments since Ferrari's last title is enough to promote non-winners of those tournaments above Ferrari, but Kerkvliet, who has also wrestled  at two tournaments since Steveson won his last title, does not get the same benefit. And unlike any of the three ahead of Ferrari, Kerkvliet has actually won a tournament. The most recent.

I think it comes down to losses for the Steveson/Ferrari comparison.  Steveson hasn’t lost since 2019 and was undefeated in his 2 title years, compared to Ferrari taking a loss the year he won.  

But overall I would say we shouldn’t be looking at results prior to like 2023 at the latest, but Steveson and Ferrari are certainly unique cases…

[Wrestleknownothing]

2 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

I think it comes down to losses for the Steveson/Ferrari comparison.  Steveson hasn’t lost since 2019 and was undefeated in his 2 title years, compared to Ferrari taking a loss the year he won.  

But overall I would say we shouldn’t be looking at results prior to like 2023 at the latest, but Steveson and Ferrari are certainly unique cases…

Yeah, I do not think that one is right and one is wrong necessarily. I just object to this conceit that rankings are not ratings, because rankings are not subjective, or predictions.

In the above case the criteria are not applied evenly, so it is hard to argue that the rankings are objective. But the very nature of choosing which criteria to apply is subjective. So even if you apply your criteria objectively it is still, at its root, a subjective process.

Then when you use your individual rankings to make team projections, as we all do, you are making a prediction based on the assumption that your rankings equal the final results.

I would rather everyone just admit that there is a tremendous amount of subjectivity in rankings.

As for me, I have said many times no one gets better at wrestling by not wrestling. That applies equally to Ferrari and Steveson. However, I can also subjectively state that the gap between Steveson and his field was much larger than the gap between Ferrari and his field however many years back you want to go. So, subjectively I can still place Steveson in the #1 spot against a stronger competition, while dropping Ferrari to #4 against lesser competition.

[Jon_Kozak]

On 11/19/2024 at 9:23 AM, Wrestleknownothing said:

Then let's look at Steveson's 285 ranking logic. They have him first "based on top ten wins over Greg Kerkvliet, Wyatt Hendrickson, Cohlton Schultz, Taye Ghadiali, and Luke Luffman." Those wins all occurred in 2021 and 2022.

Now let's compare that to Ferrari's 197 ranking logic. They have him fourth, reasoning "Ferrari hasn't wrestled anyone other than Buchanan ranked in the top 8 and his wins over Buchanan were over two years ago." They also ask the question, "but should he be ahead of Buchanan, Cardenas, and Elam who have all competed at least two NCAA Tournaments since AJ Ferrari won his title?" And their answer is no as revealed by their rankings.

So they discount Ferrari's wins because they were over two years ago, but include Steveson's wins even though they were over two years ago. They also think that having competed at two or more NCAA tournaments since Ferrari's last title is enough to promote non-winners of those tournaments above Ferrari, but Kerkvliet, who has also wrestled  at two tournaments since Steveson won his last title, does not get the same benefit. And unlike any of the three ahead of Ferrari, Kerkvliet has actually won a tournament. The most recent.

IMO AJ Ferrari's resume is not comparable to Gable Steveson's.

Gable Steveson
Wins over:
#1 Kerkvliet
#2 Hendrickson
#7 Ghadiali
#9 Schultz
#10 Luffman

NCAA finishes - 1st, 1st, 3rd
Missed 2 NCAA Tournaments
Lost to Anthony Cassar - NCAA Champion
Won 2 Hodge Trophies

AJ Ferrari
Wins over
#1 Buchanan
#10 Novak

NCAA finish - 1st
Missed 3 NCAA Tournaments
Lost to Noah Adams - 3X NCAA Qualifier, never AAd
 

Gable has 3 full seasons of data and more head-to-head wins over the current field than AJ. It's a similar situation but it's certainly not the same.

[Wrestleknownothing]

1 hour ago, Jon_Kozak said:

IMO AJ Ferrari's resume is not comparable to Gable Steveson's.

Gable Steveson
Wins over:
#1 Kerkvliet
#2 Hendrickson
#7 Ghadiali
#9 Schultz
#10 Luffman

NCAA finishes - 1st, 1st, 3rd
Missed 2 NCAA Tournaments
Lost to Anthony Cassar - NCAA Champion
Won 2 Hodge Trophies

AJ Ferrari
Wins over
#1 Buchanan
#10 Novak

NCAA finish - 1st
Missed 3 NCAA Tournaments
Lost to Noah Adams - 3X NCAA Qualifier, never AAd
 

Gable has 3 full seasons of data and more head-to-head wins over the current field than AJ. It's a similar situation but it's certainly not the same.

Thank you for replying, Jon.

I 100% agree with both of your points. There is zero doubt that Steveson has a significantly better resume than Ferrari. And the situations are similar, but different.

But I am arguing Steveson vs his field and Ferrari vs his field, rather than Steveson vs Ferrari.

At the same time that Steveson is significantly more accomplished than Ferrari, Steveson's field is also significantly more accomplished than Ferrari's. And Ferrari is 2-0 against the presumptive #1 in his field. I am also arguing that you should not discount Ferrari's achievements because of their age if you do not do the same with Steveson. 

As for their respective fields you should not effectively give more credit to Ferrari's field for having participated in two or more tournaments without also giving more credit to Steveson's field which has one champion in it. 

Don't get me wrong, this is similar to a high school debate. Someone gets assigned the pro and someone gets assigned the con. I am simply making the con argument because someone asked the question about Alirez vs Mendez. I do not have strong feelings either way, but I do enjoy the debate. I also obviously enjoy that you do these rankings, given how much I create data off of them. So thank you for that.

And finally, I do not get too emotionally invested in the rankings because in the end it all gets settled rather definitively and satisfactorily.

[Gus]

3 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Thank you for replying, Jon.

I 100% agree with both of your points. There is zero doubt that Steveson has a significantly better resume than Ferrari. And the situations are similar, but different.

But I am arguing Steveson vs his field and Ferrari vs his field, rather than Steveson vs Ferrari.

At the same time that Steveson is significantly more accomplished than Ferrari, Steveson's field is also significantly more accomplished than Ferrari's. And Ferrari is 2-0 against the presumptive #1 in his field. I am also arguing that you should not discount Ferrari's achievements because of their age if you do not do the same with Steveson. 

As for their respective fields you should not effectively give more credit to Ferrari's field for having participated in two or more tournaments without also giving more credit to Steveson's field which has one champion in it. 

Don't get me wrong, this is similar to a high school debate. Someone gets assigned the pro and someone gets assigned the con. I am simply making the con argument because someone asked the question about Alirez vs Mendez. I do not have strong feelings either way, but I do enjoy the debate. I also obviously enjoy that you do these rankings, given how much I create data off of them. So thank you for that.

And finally, I do not get too emotionally invested in the rankings because in the end it all gets settled rather definitively and satisfactorily.

How about the data point of AJ losing to Glazier last year?

[nhs67]

2 minutes ago, Gus said:

How about the data point of AJ losing to Glazier last year?

It did happen.

[ionel]

5 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Don't get me wrong, this is similar to a high school debate.

But are you willing to share your 3x5 cards?

[Wrestleknownothing]

1 minute ago, Gus said:

How about the data point of AJ losing to Glazier last year?

I can't do all of Jon's work for him.

But even with that data point he still can trump Buchanan, Cardenas, and Elam with his lone title.

That said, if we are talking predictions then I think 4 is about right based on my oft repeated belief that no one gets better at wrestling by not wrestling.

[Wrestleknownothing]

3 minutes ago, ionel said:

But are you willing to share your 3x5 cards?

As I have told many who have tried, "I don't do scripts". Whatever comes out, comes out. Damn the torpedoes. 

[Gus]

2 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

I can't do all of Jon's work for him.

But even with that data point he still can trump Buchanan, Cardenas, and Elam with his lone title.

That said, if we are talking predictions then I think 4 is about right based on my oft repeated belief that no one gets better at wrestling by not wrestling.

If AJ keeps winning, he will move up. While AJ is a very good wrestler and his 2020 tournament run was very good (beat Sloan - Warner - Amine - Nino en route to a title), he never touched the dominance of Gable. We also watched (albeit in freestyle) Gable make very light work on Mason Paris (2023 hodge trophy winner) when he last put on his shoes. Much different than AJ going to OT and getting DQ's and losing.