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2025 Inaugural Expected Points and AAs


Wrestleknownothing

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The new season is almost here, which means pre-season rankings are finally available. I have updated my expected points by seed and probability of AA by seed to reflect results from the 16 and 33 seed eras (2014 - 2024). At least for now I did this using both Intermat and Wrestlestat rankings. I may, or may not, keep doing that. Flo is only ranking to 24 spots at the moment, so they are out. I may also do a composite ranking. Who knows? Stay tuned.

Oh, and freshmen are not yet included in any of these rankings.

Without further ado:

image.thumb.png.0a3fec442365e07037284a8c495552ab.png

image.thumb.png.3fa510f116388b5f3b08d9a2b1cccd16.png

Wow, PSU in the lead early in the season. No one saw that coming.

  • Bob 2

Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge

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1 hour ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

The new season is almost here, which means pre-season rankings are finally available. I have updated my expected points by seed and probability of AA by seed to reflect results from the 16 and 33 seed eras (2014 - 2024). At least for now I did this using both Intermat and Wrestlestat rankings. I may, or may not, keep doing that. Flo is only ranking to 24 spots at the moment, so they are out. I may also do a composite ranking. Who knows? Stay tuned.

Oh, and freshmen are not yet included in any of these rankings.

Without further ado:

image.thumb.png.0a3fec442365e07037284a8c495552ab.png

image.thumb.png.3fa510f116388b5f3b08d9a2b1cccd16.png

Wow, PSU in the lead early in the season. No one saw that coming.

I think you should do an Intermat Forums All Star Rankers Supremo Delight composite.

Take the 4 or 5 'best' gents (obviously not me) and have them rank T33.  I would be curious how that would differ from WrestleStat and/or Flo and/or Intermat.

  • Bob 1
  • Brain 1

"I know actually nothing.  It isn't even conjecture at this point." - me

 

 

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Interestingly Wrestlestat has Gabe Arnold at 174 for Iowa while Intermat has Patrick Kennedy instead.

Wrestlestat also has Trey Munoz going 197 for Oregon State while Intermat has him at 184. And as a result Wrestlestat has Rademacher #26 at 197 on his individual page, but he does not appear on the rankings page.

Likewaise Josh Heindselman. Even though he is ranked #12 at 285 on his individual page and Juan Mora is ranked #45, because Mora is tagged as the starter, Heindselman does not appear in the 285 rankings.

Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge

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2 hours ago, ionel said:

Your charts are not surprising.  Can you give us the revised #s if 4 PSU guys at random broke a leg 3 days before b10s?  Maybe run all the random 4 combination to give us probability stats?  🙂

I mean... Starocci still won on one leg, so even then it might not do anything dofferent...

"I know actually nothing.  It isn't even conjecture at this point." - me

 

 

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