Wrestleknownothing Posted October 4 Posted October 4 The new season is almost here, which means pre-season rankings are finally available. I have updated my expected points by seed and probability of AA by seed to reflect results from the 16 and 33 seed eras (2014 - 2024). At least for now I did this using both Intermat and Wrestlestat rankings. I may, or may not, keep doing that. Flo is only ranking to 24 spots at the moment, so they are out. I may also do a composite ranking. Who knows? Stay tuned. Oh, and freshmen are not yet included in any of these rankings. Without further ado: Wow, PSU in the lead early in the season. No one saw that coming. 4 Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge
nhs67 Posted October 4 Posted October 4 1 hour ago, Wrestleknownothing said: The new season is almost here, which means pre-season rankings are finally available. I have updated my expected points by seed and probability of AA by seed to reflect results from the 16 and 33 seed eras (2014 - 2024). At least for now I did this using both Intermat and Wrestlestat rankings. I may, or may not, keep doing that. Flo is only ranking to 24 spots at the moment, so they are out. I may also do a composite ranking. Who knows? Stay tuned. Oh, and freshmen are not yet included in any of these rankings. Without further ado: Wow, PSU in the lead early in the season. No one saw that coming. I think you should do an Intermat Forums All Star Rankers Supremo Delight composite. Take the 4 or 5 'best' gents (obviously not me) and have them rank T33. I would be curious how that would differ from WrestleStat and/or Flo and/or Intermat. 1 1 "I know actually nothing. It isn't even conjecture at this point." - me
Wrestleknownothing Posted October 4 Author Posted October 4 Interestingly Wrestlestat has Gabe Arnold at 174 for Iowa while Intermat has Patrick Kennedy instead. Wrestlestat also has Trey Munoz going 197 for Oregon State while Intermat has him at 184. And as a result Wrestlestat has Rademacher #26 at 197 on his individual page, but he does not appear on the rankings page. Likewaise Josh Heindselman. Even though he is ranked #12 at 285 on his individual page and Juan Mora is ranked #45, because Mora is tagged as the starter, Heindselman does not appear in the 285 rankings. 1 1 Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge
ionel Posted October 4 Posted October 4 Your charts are not surprising. Can you give us the revised #s if 4 PSU guys at random broke a leg 3 days before b10s? Maybe run all the random 4 combination to give us probability stats? 2 1 2BPE 11/17/24 SMC
Wrestleknownothing Posted October 4 Author Posted October 4 Yes, I can. The more important question is, will I? 1 1 Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge
ionel Posted October 4 Posted October 4 10 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said: Yes, I can. The more important question is, will I? 2BPE 11/17/24 SMC
ionel Posted October 4 Posted October 4 2 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said: Yes, I can. The more important question is, will I? Weller can I bribe you? 2BPE 11/17/24 SMC
nhs67 Posted October 4 Posted October 4 2 hours ago, ionel said: Your charts are not surprising. Can you give us the revised #s if 4 PSU guys at random broke a leg 3 days before b10s? Maybe run all the random 4 combination to give us probability stats? I mean... Starocci still won on one leg, so even then it might not do anything dofferent... 1 "I know actually nothing. It isn't even conjecture at this point." - me
Wrestleknownothing Posted October 4 Author Posted October 4 1 hour ago, ionel said: Weller can I bribe you? Costco was out of Green Spot. Just sayin'. Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge
Weight of the World Posted October 6 Posted October 6 IL should have 3 AA's Ruth, Byrd, and Webster 1
ionel Posted October 6 Posted October 6 (edited) 36 minutes ago, Weight of the World said: IL should have 3 AA's Ruth, Byrd, and Webster Yeah looks like a computer glitch ... and IWB too busy reading the comics to notice. Edited October 6 by ionel 1 2BPE 11/17/24 SMC
ILLINIWrestlingBlog Posted October 6 Posted October 6 32 minutes ago, ionel said: Yeah looks like a computer glitch ... and IWB too busy reading the comics to notice. I'm expecting more All Americans than Edmond Ruth, Lucas Byrd and Kannon Webster. Both Brawlnagels and Luke Luffman are in striking distance in the rankings, and you can bet that the two Brawnys earned a doctorate in hand-fighting during their Greco Olympic redshirt year. They were both Honorable Mention AAs during the Covid Year. Zac has been a R12er his last two seasons wrestling. Plus, y'all know you are rooting for those guys! I'm also keen to see how Ramazan Attasauov does down at 125. He's been a NQ at 133, and there's no doubt that he could be one of the biggest, tallest and strongest at the new weight if he can handle the drop. Plus, he won U23 Nationals at 57kg in the past, beating RayVon Foley and Patrick Glory along the way. Is his transition to Folk now compete? There are a couple of others on the edge of consideration, Braeden Scoles has the pedigree, but 165 is tough as nails, Danny Pucino has the moves and hopefully he no longer gives up a weight advantage to his opponents, and Jason Kraisser was Round of 16 two years ago and is now in an environment with some serious middleweight coaching (Poeta, IMAR, AOC). 1 1 1
Pinnacle Posted October 6 Posted October 6 If the over under for PSU all Americans is 6.6, I think I would take the over. They to are a threat to make 6 or 7 finals not including 133, 157 and 197.
Wrestleknownothing Posted October 6 Author Posted October 6 3 minutes ago, Pinnacle said: If the over under for PSU all Americans is 6.6, I think I would take the over. They to are a threat to make 6 or 7 finals not including 133, 157 and 197. 6.6 does not include Lilledahl. If Lilledahl is seeded top 8 then the over/under would be 7.5. Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge
ionel Posted October 6 Posted October 6 7 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said: 6.6 does not include Lilledahl. If Lilledahl is seeded top 8 then the over/under would be 7.5. ... but you've failed to consider the David Taylor factor ... there's a new sheriff in town. 2BPE 11/17/24 SMC
Wrestleknownothing Posted October 6 Author Posted October 6 2 hours ago, Weight of the World said: IL should have 3 AA's Ruth, Byrd, and Webster My model has them at between two and three 1 Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge
Wrestleknownothing Posted October 6 Author Posted October 6 Also, Illinois should be on the first graphic in 17th position for team points with 38.4, but Intermat has Byrd transferring from Illinois to Illinios. 1 Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge
Pinnacle Posted October 6 Posted October 6 41 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said: 6.6 does not include Lilledahl. If Lilledahl is seeded top 8 then the over/under would be 7.5. Assuming PSU does PSU performance the question becomes can PSU get an AA performance from Davis at 133 or Kasak/Facundo at 157? If either happen they probably still hit the over.
ILLINIWrestlingBlog Posted October 6 Posted October 6 1 hour ago, Wrestleknownothing said: Also, Illinois should be on the first graphic in 17th position for team points with 38.4, but Intermat has Byrd transferring from Illinois to Illinios. That's hilarious! Made me laugh. LUCAS BYRD: "I've narrowed my choices down to ILLINOIS and ILLINOIS."
MPhillips Posted October 7 Posted October 7 8 hours ago, ILLINIWrestlingBlog said: Plus, y'all know you are rooting for those guys! 1
billyhoyle Posted October 7 Posted October 7 Next, please run 1000 simulations of the NCAA tournament to tell us that PSU has a 98.3% chance of winning it. 1
Tripnsweep Posted October 7 Posted October 7 8 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said: My model has them at between two and three How can you have .52 of an All American? 1
ionel Posted October 7 Posted October 7 7 hours ago, ILLINIWrestlingBlog said: That's hilarious! Made me laugh. LUCAS BYRD: "I've narrowed my choices down to ILLINOIS and ILLINOIS." Heard from a very reliable source his 3rd choice is Illinois. I'm sure there's a Sunday comic on Byrd's decision process. 1 2BPE 11/17/24 SMC
Wrestleknownothing Posted October 7 Author Posted October 7 (edited) 41 minutes ago, Tripnsweep said: How can you have .52 of an All American? You cannot. But you can have a 52% chance of one AA. Read that 2.52 as a 52% chance of 3 and a 48% chance of 2, kind of, sort of. It is actually a broader distribution, but the weighted average of the distribution is 2.52 Edited October 7 by Wrestleknownothing 1 Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge
ionel Posted October 7 Posted October 7 10 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said: Also, Illinois should be on the first graphic in 17th position for team points with 38.4, but Intermat has Byrd transferring from Illinois to Illinios. Has @flyingcement confirmed? 1 2BPE 11/17/24 SMC
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