how many medals do we nab in Paris

[Scouts Honor]

On 5/15/2024 at 8:02 AM, D3 for LU said:

D3

 

[CHROMEBIRD]

On 6/5/2024 at 5:42 AM, Truzzcat said:

so I think both teams can go 6 for 6

However on the womans side at 57 you have Sakurai who seemed legitimately untouchable, then she lost to Feng at asians who got teched by Zhang at the Zegreb. I think if Helen gets a bad draw thats going to be a very tall mountain to climb to get a medal but I hold out hope. I do think Amit and Kennedy have as good or a better shot at gold compared to anyone on the mens side though.

Fair take. When I originally posted the question, my gut feeling was that our Women's team had a better chance of bringing back more medals overall while the MFS team would bring back less hardware but more gold. But that's probably wrong.

[Spladle08]

I haven't read anyone else's .

Dake/Snyder would need to get a little unlucky not to medal

Spencer/Zain/Brooks/Paris basically all in the same boat

Spencer: like struggling at the qualifier, is in a tough weight with a lot of guys his caliber. Finalist or tough draw and out. Who knows. 25%

Zain... Exact same... Lots of Ochirs maybe a little less confident than spicy lee . He medals 1 in 5x . 20%

Brooks: he beat DT I know but eh . I think Naifanov (or whoever they send ), Kurugliev, Yaz, some sleeper. Can upset him . Just depends on draw. I'd assume he wrestles for Bronze . 35%

Paris: should wrestle for bronze but a bad draw couple put him up against it .... 40%

Over under 4 medals or 4.5 sounds scary enough

[nhs67]

Just now, Spladle08 said:

I haven't read anyone else's .

Dake/Snyder would need to get a little unlucky not to medal

Spencer/Zain/Brooks/Paris basically all in the same boat

Spencer: like struggling at the qualifier, is in a tough weight with a lot of guys his caliber. Finalist or tough draw and out. Who knows. 25%

Zain... Exact same... Lots of Ochirs maybe a little less confident than spicy lee . He medals 1 in 5x . 20%

Brooks: he beat DT I know but eh . I think Naifanov (or whoever they send ), Kurugliev, Yaz, some sleeper. Can upset him . Just depends on draw. I'd assume he wrestles for Bronze . 35%

Paris: should wrestle for bronze but a bad draw couple put him up against it .... 40%

Over under 4 medals or 4.5 sounds scary enough

Why 40% chance for Parris?  I would wager his chances of making the finals are north of 60%.

[Spladle08]

Why 40% chance for Parris?  I would wager his chances of making the finals are north of 60%.

The finals more than 60% you think ...... I think Geno, Taha, Zare . Still all best him at the big show...... And I think he's susceptible to a few others.... But favored. I think he almost definitely wrestles for a medal and should medal. But I gotta allow for him catching somebody tough early and them losing in the semis (I don't even know where they all stand with points currently)

[nhs67]

39 minutes ago, Spladle08 said:

The finals more than 60% you think ...... I think Geno, Taha, Zare . Still all best him at the big show...... And I think he's susceptible to a few others.... But favored. I think he almost definitely wrestles for a medal and should medal. But I gotta allow for him catching somebody tough early and them losing in the semis (I don't even know where they all stand with points currently)

Zare and Akgul are top side, him and Geno are bottom.

He just decked the guy who decked Geno, too just a few hours apart.

[Spladle08]

Zare and Akgul are top side, him and Geno are bottom.
He just decked the guy who decked Geno, too just a few hours apart.

I did see that. I mean he could be a finalist for sure. But if he and Geno wrestle in an hour or at the Olympics. Id probably pick Geno .60% to medal

[GrandOlm]

Geno's gun slinger style is prone a wide variance of results. One tournament he loses a nail biter to Taha and then the next tournament he gets destroyed by Taha.

He'll almost lose to someone like Dziannis but then almost beats Gable, who annihilated everyone else. 

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

13 hours ago, Spladle08 said:

I haven't read anyone else's .

Dake/Snyder would need to get a little unlucky not to medal

Spencer/Zain/Brooks/Paris basically all in the same boat

Spencer: like struggling at the qualifier, is in a tough weight with a lot of guys his caliber. Finalist or tough draw and out. Who knows. 25%

Zain... Exact same... Lots of Ochirs maybe a little less confident than spicy lee . He medals 1 in 5x . 20%

Brooks: he beat DT I know but eh . I think Naifanov (or whoever they send ), Kurugliev, Yaz, some sleeper. Can upset him . Just depends on draw. I'd assume he wrestles for Bronze . 35%

Paris: should wrestle for bronze but a bad draw couple put him up against it .... 40%

Over under 4 medals or 4.5 sounds scary enough

Will actually need some luck to medal.  Check the seeds.

[Spladle08]

Will actually need some luck to medal.  Check the seeds.

Yeah I saw that. Not sexy at all

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

4 minutes ago, Spladle08 said:

18 minutes ago, Interviewed_at_Weehawken said:

Will actually need some luck to medal.  Check the seeds.

Yeah I saw that. Not sexy at all

Likely going to need to beat Saduleev/Taz loser to medal, or catch another forfeit.

Edited June 7 by Interviewed_at_Weehawken

[Spladle08]

Likely going to need to beat Saduleev/Taz loser to medal.

Or beat them both and win it all :) I'm calling it !

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

Just now, Spladle08 said:

1 minute ago, Interviewed_at_Weehawken said:

Likely going to need to beat Saduleev/Taz loser to medal.

Or beat them both and win it all I'm calling it !

True! But only needs to beat one.

One way or another, he is going to need a win over one of them in all likelihood.

Edited June 7 by Interviewed_at_Weehawken

[Spladle08]

True! But only needs to beat one.

Oh I thought he had one then the other. I prefer only 1 . I have a feeling he shocks the world this year and gets it done . Fingers crossed. I need to start paying more attention of seeds.

[alliseeisgold]

Dake is on a mission for gold. He will not be denied

After that....I don't see a gold at all

Zain is a Metcalf clone on international. Will lose a tough battle by getting out gamed and out savvied

Brooks is not touching a pissed off yaz. Brooks gold medal mentally and training wise was beating Taylor. Yaz wants it more and good matchup.

Snyder.....he is bronze quality .... His upset over sadulaev is a one off.  The gap is widening. The field also has proven they can pick off Snyder. He has not gotten any better since trading OSU for Penn state

That leaves Spencer Lee and Paris. Both imo can medal and are the x factors on the team ....could make the finals.....but they aren't winning gold.

[Cowboy08]

On 5/14/2024 at 3:16 PM, mspart said:

I sure there will be upsets for us but on the whole, this looks like one of the best teams we have fielded in a long time.

mspart

I actually disagree, I think this team is feast or famine.  Everyone loves Lee but his knee, gas tank and lack of international matches worry me and I could see him winning a gold or not medaling at all.  I'm a big fan of Zain but I feel he is more likely to not medal than to medal, hope I am wrong.  Dake is our only guaranteed medal IMO and I think he wins his gold.  Brooks worries me, I feel like his "Rocky moment" was beating DT, Snyder is slowing down and has a really bad draw, he would medal 9/10 times in the olympics but if there was the one time when he doesn't this might be the year.  Mason I don't really know what to think, obviously he isn't our best heavyweight and although he has done well and is seeded 3rd I don't automatically write him in for a medal.

I think best case we get 5 medals, absolute worst case we get 1

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

On 6/9/2024 at 12:57 AM, alliseeisgold said:

Dake is on a mission for gold. He will not be denied

After that....I don't see a gold at all

Zain is a Metcalf clone on international. Will lose a tough battle by getting out gamed and out savvied

Brooks is not touching a pissed off yaz. Brooks gold medal mentally and training wise was beating Taylor. Yaz wants it more and good matchup.

Snyder.....he is bronze quality .... His upset over sadulaev is a one off.  The gap is widening. The field also has proven they can pick off Snyder. He has not gotten any better since trading OSU for Penn state

That leaves Spencer Lee and Paris. Both imo can medal and are the x factors on the team ....could make the finals.....but they aren't winning gold.

Zain- more proven than Metcalf (although Metcalf has the win over Sidakov, the savviest of all Russians)

Brooks will have a tough go vs. the Yaz we just saw.

Snyder will be fortunate to get a bronze if some approximations of 2022 Saduleev and 2023 Taz show up.

Spencer- I'm hoping!

Parris- The finals is a very real possibility.  Once he's there, does he have Zare's kryptonite? I certainly see a bronze for him.

Dake- I can't see more than silver based on the recent past.  Maybe bronze depending on how stuff lines up.

But I am hoping for six golds and plan on watching every match!

[nhs67]

57 KG - If Lee's knee holds up, that means it was healthy leading up.  That means no cardio issues.  If Lee's knee is healthy, I fully expect a Gold out of him.

65 KG - Zain is his own worst enemy.  He is an animal and basically a Metcalf 2.0.  Wrestling is harder now as there are more Russians in the field.  He could win it, but I actually expect that if he does lose prior to the semi-finals that he will not medal.  I expect the guy who beats him to lose the following round (if Zain loses prior to the semi-finals).

74 KG - Dake's issue is that more people know how to avoid the dangerous positions with him.  Dake is contented to a 1-0, 2-0 win.  He tends to go hard for a takedown early, though, and if he doesn't get it he will try harder.  That is why he got Teched by Kadzi a few years ago.  I don't know if there is a guy that will put him down early in the bracket, though.  I think it is Silver or Gold for him.

86 KG - He was gifted his match against Valencia.  The same Valencia who isn't a Top 5 at 86 KG.  That makes me believe that Brooks is not, either.  His physical style might do what I am worried that Zain might do in that he'll gas his opponent in a loss, then his opponent will take a loss.

97 KG - His draw is ridiculous.  We know he tends to do best at Worlds/Olympics, though.  I expect him to make the semi-finals.  If Sad is slowing down (I don't think Snyder is) then he has a chance there.  I don't expect a loss to Taz again from either Sad or Snyder.  I also don't see Snyder losing to Azirpara again.  Gold/Bronze.

125 KG - I think it is Gold or Silver for Parris.  I know Geno also turns it up, but father time is undefeated and Parris looked to be clearly the best 125 KG at the same tournament that Geno was at last week.

My biggest worries are the gents from Penn State.  I hope I am wrong.  I see 74, 97, and 125 KG as guaranteed medals.  If Lee is healthy, that is 4.  65 and 86 are big perplexing worries for me and I absolutely hope I am wrong.

[stealyphil223]

57 Lee Silver 

65 Zain No Medal

74 Dake Silver 

86 Brooks Bronze

97 Snyder No Medal

125 Paris Silver 

[Truzzcat]

5 hours ago, nhs67 said:

57 KG - If Lee's knee holds up, that means it was healthy leading up.  That means no cardio issues.  If Lee's knee is healthy, I fully expect a Gold out of him.

65 KG - Zain is his own worst enemy.  He is an animal and basically a Metcalf 2.0.  Wrestling is harder now as there are more Russians in the field.  He could win it, but I actually expect that if he does lose prior to the semi-finals that he will not medal.  I expect the guy who beats him to lose the following round (if Zain loses prior to the semi-finals).

74 KG - Dake's issue is that more people know how to avoid the dangerous positions with him.  Dake is contented to a 1-0, 2-0 win.  He tends to go hard for a takedown early, though, and if he doesn't get it he will try harder.  That is why he got Teched by Kadzi a few years ago.  I don't know if there is a guy that will put him down early in the bracket, though.  I think it is Silver or Gold for him.

86 KG - He was gifted his match against Valencia.  The same Valencia who isn't a Top 5 at 86 KG.  That makes me believe that Brooks is not, either.  His physical style might do what I am worried that Zain might do in that he'll gas his opponent in a loss, then his opponent will take a loss.

97 KG - His draw is ridiculous.  We know he tends to do best at Worlds/Olympics, though.  I expect him to make the semi-finals.  If Sad is slowing down (I don't think Snyder is) then he has a chance there.  I don't expect a loss to Taz again from either Sad or Snyder.  I also don't see Snyder losing to Azirpara again.  Gold/Bronze.

125 KG - I think it is Gold or Silver for Parris.  I know Geno also turns it up, but father time is undefeated and Parris looked to be clearly the best 125 KG at the same tournament that Geno was at last week.

My biggest worries are the gents from Penn State.  I hope I am wrong.  I see 74, 97, and 125 KG as guaranteed medals.  If Lee is healthy, that is 4.  65 and 86 are big perplexing worries for me and I absolutely hope I am wrong.

really like this breakdown. I am not as confident with Spencer, I view him and Zain very similarly and that is largely because of the weight. I think both 57 and 65 probably have 6-8 guys that could win the bracket on any given day including our guys. My fear for spencer is that we have not seen him compete against someone who is going to attack his legs with a lot of volume. Nico did to an extent and was able to get in, but spencer was able to stalemate the positions. Stevan,Abakarov,Higuchi,Uulu,harutunyan are all going to try and score a lot and I think will finish more efficiently than Nico. Spencers two biggest x factors will be he is a true 125 and obviously his par tear. Those are probably what differentiate him from Zain to me. While I view Zain as the same caliber wrestler, he is also in a monster field (likely even deeper than 57) but on top of that he is cutting weight. I'm supremely confident we medal 74 and up given our draws although brooks could draw in Yaz r1 and he may be a slow starter in his first Olympics ever so that concerns me a bit, but gods will shall guide him.

[nhs67]

2 minutes ago, Truzzcat said:

really like this breakdown. I am not as confident with Spencer, I view him and Zain very similarly and that is largely because of the weight. I think both 57 and 65 probably have 6-8 guys that could win the bracket on any given day including our guys. My fear for spencer is that we have not seen him compete against someone who is going to attack his legs with a lot of volume. Nico did to an extent and was able to get in, but spencer was able to stalemate the positions. Stevan,Abakarov,Higuchi,Uulu,harutunyan are all going to try and score a lot and I think will finish more efficiently than Nico. Spencers two biggest x factors will be he is a true 125 and obviously his par tear. Those are probably what differentiate him from Zain to me. While I view Zain as the same caliber wrestler, he is also in a monster field (likely even deeper than 57) but on top of that he is cutting weight. I'm supremely confident we medal 74 and up given our draws although brooks could draw in Yaz r1 and he may be a slow starter in his first Olympics ever so that concerns me a bit, but gods will shall guide him.

I think we would actually prefer that, right?  Closer to the scale?

[Truzzcat]

16 minutes ago, nhs67 said:

I think we would actually prefer that, right?  Closer to the scale?

Honestly, I'm not sure who is more hindered by the cut it sounds like Aaron is big big but he has the summer to get his weight more around 189 vs 197 so it may not be as big of a factor.

[nhs67]

46 minutes ago, Truzzcat said:

Honestly, I'm not sure who is more hindered by the cut it sounds like Aaron is big big but he has the summer to get his weight more around 189 vs 197 so it may not be as big of a factor.

He didn't turn in to a full-sized 197lber in the one season he was there.

[alliseeisgold]

On 6/13/2024 at 8:46 AM, Interviewed_at_Weehawken said:

Zain- more proven than Metcalf (although Metcalf has the win over Sidakov, the savviest of all Russians)

Brooks will have a tough go vs. the Yaz we just saw.

Snyder will be fortunate to get a bronze if some approximations of 2022 Saduleev and 2023 Taz show up.

Spencer- I'm hoping!

Parris- The finals is a very real possibility.  Once he's there, does he have Zare's kryptonite? I certainly see a bronze for him.

Dake- I can't see more than silver based on the recent past.  Maybe bronze depending on how stuff lines up.

But I am hoping for six golds and plan on watching every match!

I felt better about Metcalf internationally then zain. Metcalf to me is the best guy that never won a medal in USA wrestling history. 

Everytime he stepped on the mat I thought he had a chance. He won the world cup pretty dominantly and when he did lose it was a nailbiter.

At 65 now...we can't compete with the elites. 

[alliseeisgold]

The other thing about Metcalf is no one could even touch him domestically. Oliver couldn't even get close. And for quite a while.

These days if a guy isn't getting touched he is winning medals 

Metcalf was medal worthy and medal caliber 

He was a stud