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Finals Predictions


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Hopefully I can improve on my .500 record in the Big10 finals.

125 I took Ayala to start this event, but Richie Figs is on a mission. 

133 Don Vito Corleone

141 Bartlett somehow gets this done

149 Gomez over a very tough Caleb Henson

157 I just re watched last nite's semis and Andonian hit a double on Haines that surprised me. Teemer can hit that double even quicker. This has Bubba Jenkins vs David Taylor written all over it. Aye yi yi yi yi. 

165 Both guys will get takedowns. Whichever guy has the most 3rd period gas tank wins. 

174 Hopefully no one noticed my chicken chit failure to actually pick winners the last two weights. I pick Starocci here. He is on 1.5 legs and has no real push off power where he needs it, but he just took out two former champs. He's the man until proven otherwise.

184 Gotta go Keckeisen

197 Hidlay will dance the boundary for 7 minutes and Brooks will still get him. 

Hwt Greg Kerkvliet has too much fire power. Only way he loses is if he is mentally not set, but if he is he will dominate

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2 minutes ago, Pinnacle said:

Hopefully I can improve on my .500 record in the Big10 finals.

125 I took Ayala to start this event, but Richie Figs is on a mission. 

133 Don Vito Corleone

141 Bartlett somehow gets this done

149 Gomez over a very tough Caleb Henson

157 I just re watched last nite's semis and Andonian hit a double on Haines that surprised me. Teemer can hit that double even quicker. This has Bubba Jenkins vs David Taylor written all over it. Aye yi yi yi yi. 

165 Both guys will get takedowns. Whichever guy has the most 3rd period gas tank wins. 

174 Hopefully no one noticed my chicken chit failure to actually pick winners the last two weights. I pick Starocci here. He is on 1.5 legs and has no real push off power where he needs it, but he just took out two former champs. He's the man until proven otherwise.

184 Gotta go Keckeisen

197 Hidlay will dance the boundary for 7 minutes and Brooks will still get him. 

Hwt Greg Kerkvliet has too much fire power. Only way he loses is if he is mentally not set, but if he is he will dominate

125 Fig

133 Arujae

141 Mendez

149 Gomez 

157 Haines 

165 Brick

174 Starocci

184 Keckeisen

197 Brooks 

Hwt Kerkvliet 

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125 I don't trust Figs or ASU. Going with A tale

133 Vito w/ at least 3 takedowns

141 Bartlett. OSU gets out over his skis, gives up an early takedown, and has to play catch up ... can't

149 Henson.

157 Haines. Again, I don't trust ASU. 

165 Carr. Ugghh ... I'm a moron for not picking the team and kid who always show up and exceed expectations

174 CStarr

184 Keck. Not as brutal as Big 12 but never in doubt

197 Brooks with at least 3 takedowns

HWT psu

 

 

 

 

 

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21 minutes ago, Pinnacle said:

Hopefully I can improve on my .500 record in the Big10 finals.

125 I took Ayala to start this event, but Richie Figs is on a mission. 

133 Don Vito Corleone

141 Bartlett somehow gets this done

149 Gomez over a very tough Caleb Henson

157 I just re watched last nite's semis and Andonian hit a double on Haines that surprised me. Teemer can hit that double even quicker. This has Bubba Jenkins vs David Taylor written all over it. Aye yi yi yi yi. 

165 Both guys will get takedowns. Whichever guy has the most 3rd period gas tank wins. 

174 Hopefully no one noticed my chicken chit failure to actually pick winners the last two weights. I pick Starocci here. He is on 1.5 legs and has no real push off power where he needs it, but he just took out two former champs. He's the man until proven otherwise.

184 Gotta go Keckeisen

197 Hidlay will dance the boundary for 7 minutes and Brooks will still get him. 

Hwt Greg Kerkvliet has too much fire power. Only way he loses is if he is mentally not set, but if he is he will dominate

 

Andonian is just different compared to most, and Haines had to be very cautious of that. Teemer's quickness isn't quite the same as the creativity of BA of VT. No matter, I hope it's a nail biter either way. 

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125 - Ayala dec Figs
133 - Vito dec Fix
141 - Bartlett dec Mendez
149 - Gomez maj Henson
157 - Haines dec Teemer
165 - Mes dec Carr
174 - Rocci dec Rocco
184 - PKeck maj Plott
197 - Hidlay dec Brooks
285 - Kerk dec Davison

With Ayala's title, the Hawks finish ahead of ISU 😁

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125 - Wanna pick Figs as he’s had a great tournament, but I’m going Ayala. He’s apparently the only person the Brands have been coaching all season.

133 - Vito. Set the over/under of Fix’s shots at .5 and I’ll take the under

141 - Hard to pick against PSU on Saturday night, but Mendez comes out on fire and forces the action. Beau can’t score enough in the last 20 seconds to win 

149 - If I had money I would pick Gomez, but since it’s a free Internet forum I’m going with the Georgia boy. Henson gets our first national title!

157 - Haines. 

165 -  Carr, like Fix, is a frustrating watch. An elite talent that wrestles the most boring matches 99% of the time. Mitchell makes him wrestle for 7 minutes and wins his first Natty 

174 - Starroci

184 - Parker. Good for UNI. Fully believe if Schwab, or Dresser, were at Iowa it would be a more respectable program

197 - Brooks. Terrible decision to put this on last. Will be the worst match of the evening. The only question is how many miles will Brooks run chasing down Hidlay. If the officials called this match correctly Hidlay would be stalled out before the third period.

285 - Was really looking forward to a fired up Bastida or Hendrickson taking on Kerk, but I think Davidson will bring it tonight. Kerk is just too good though and wins his first. 

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My score guesses at the end of each period:

125:
1st: 0-0. 2nd: 1-0 Fig. 3rd  4-2 fig, with ayala getting an escape and last minute takedown and fig securing a riding time point

Key takeaway, Fig is a problem on top in close matches, and is very skilled at leveraging riding time in low scoring matches.

133: 
1st: 6-1 Vito. 2nd: 9-3 Vito. 3rd: 13-6 or 16-3 Vito

Key takeaway:  We haven't seen this type of Vito before, maybe ever.  Vito just big brothered a wrestler he couldn't touch two weeks ago.  Massive evolution for Vito.  Fix hasn't evolved at all since coming to college, he's probably regressed.  

141:
1st: 0-0:  2nd: 1-0 somebody.  3rd: 1-1.  OT: 4-1 Bartlett

Takeaway: I'm looking forward to 149.  

149:
1st: 6-2 Gomez.  2nd: 7-7 Gomez.  He forgets that going upper body actually gets him in trouble.  3rd: 13-9 Gomez.  

Takeaway: Austin Gomez is a far more dangerous wrestler when attacking below the knee than when he is attacking above the hips.

157: 
1st: 0-0 2nd: 3-1 Teemer.  3rd: 4-4.  OT: 7-4 Haines

Takeaway: Haines has many extra gears when his back is against the wall.  Nobody brings that out better than Andonian, but I think Teemer can pretty well.

165: 
1st: 6-2 Carr.  2nd: 9-4 Carr.  3rd: 11-10 Carr

Takeaway:  Mesenbrink gas falls just a bit short of Carr excellence

174:
1st: 6-1 Starrocci. 2nd: 9-2 Starrocci.  3rd: 13-2 Starocci.

Takeaway:  Starocci has had some sort of Vito transformation.  He's been whooping up on the field like he hasn't done maybe ever before.  

184:
1st: 6-1 Keckeisin with lots of blood time. 2nd. 12-3 Keckeisen.  3rd:  13-4 Keckeisin.  

Takeaway:  Outmatched.  Plott gets the beating he deserves for attacking a wrestlers knee unpunished in the quarters. 

197: 
1st: 3-1 Brooks.  2nd: 9-3 Brooks.  3rd: 15-5 Brooks.

Takeaway:  Brooks wilts Hidlay like he never has before.  Brooks has the frame, strength, speed, stamina, and toughness to really pour it on.  I think he does that in style. 

285:
1st: 3-1 Kerk.  2nd: 7-1 Kerk.  3rd: 8-5 Kerk.

Takeaway: Kerk is the elite wrestler of the field, but has no killer instinct.  People used to talk about lee kemp being unbelievable, but always wrestling super tight.  Joe Williams from Iowa was the same way.  His headspace got in the way of his immense potential.  Kerk gets it done, but does so by running in the 3rd period from an outmatched but game Davison.  

 

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4 minutes ago, wrestle87 said:

My score guesses at the end of each period:

125:
1st: 0-0. 2nd: 1-0 Fig. 3rd  4-2 fig, with ayala getting an escape and last minute takedown and fig securing a riding time point

Key takeaway, Fig is a problem on top in close matches, and is very skilled at leveraging riding time in low scoring matches.

Nice analysis. If you're Ayala and Figs chooses bottom, do you try to ride him out? I think Figs might have an edge on his feet but Ayala will prob wrestle from one knee to slow him down. I think Drake can get out from underneath

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125 - Figueroa - Ayala is far too high a seed to win at 125 this year. The No. 8 seed winning makes more sense. 

133 - Vito - This is March Matness Vito. Sorry, Fix. 

141 - Mendez - I think Bartlett plays this too conservatively and Mendez gets two takedowns. 

149 - Henson - Henson wrestles a positionally sound match and stays away from the upper body ties. 

157 - Haines - Teemer strikes first, but Haines grinds him down and pulls away late

165 - Mesenbrink - The pace ultimately cracks Carr, who will be in the lead for all but a short time in this one.

174 - Starocci - The score will be close, the contest will not be. 

184 - Keckeisen - Closer than the Big 12 final, but not that close

197 - Brooks - Hidlay can't find the underhook and Brooks controls the action, winning 5-2.

HWT - Kerkvliet - Davison's great run comes to an end, but no bonus. 

 

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So, PSU needs to win 4/6 tonight to beat the scoring record? They could get it done with at least 3 wins w/ bonus or 2 wins by tf or better (someone check my math here). 

Imo, the odds of Penn State's finalists bonusing from most to least likely:

     Haines (v. Teemer)
     Brooks (v. Hidlay)
     Starocci (v. Welsh)
     Kerk (v. Davison)
     MM (v. Carr)
     Bartlett (v. Mendez)

Not sure I see 3 bonuses happening. I think PSU is going to have to crown at least 4 champs to get over 170. Which is actually looking plausible.

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4 minutes ago, CHROMEBIRD said:

So, PSU needs to win 4/6 tonight to beat the scoring record? They could get it done with at least 3 wins w/ bonus or 2 wins by tf or better (someone check my math here). 

Imo, the odds of Penn State's finalists bonusing from most to least likely:

     Haines (v. Teemer)
     Brooks (v. Hidlay)
     Starocci (v. Welsh)
     Kerk (v. Davison)
     MM (v. Carr)
     Bartlett (v. Mendez)

Not sure I see 3 bonuses happening. I think PSU is going to have to crown at least 4 champs to get over 170. Which is actually looking plausible.

Like Cael said, we don't really think about that kind of stuff. We just want our guys to win and that will take care of itself.   Ish. 

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125 - Figueroa - Anti Iowa bias. 

133 - Vito 

141 - Bartlett - Runs up the score like only he can do.  4-1 OT

149 - Gomez - He's having Vito type dominance folk and free. 

157 - Haines - All he does is win.  

165 - Mesenbrink - PSU homer pick

174 - Starocci - In a nail biter

184 - Keckeisen - by a hair.

197 - Brooks - both world class.  Brooks the heir apparent

HWT - Kerkvliet - Beats up the littler guy. 

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3 hours ago, bnwtwg said:

Richie Figs

Vito smash

Mendez

Gomez with a feet to back

Haines

Carr

Starocci

Keckeisen

Brooks smash

Kerk

Have the same picks for my annual pool.  Struggled the most picking Gomez/Henson and really wanted to pick Mesenbrink but I think Carr gets the job done with his reattacks

Edited by PortaJohn
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2 minutes ago, PortaJohn said:

Have the same picks for my annual pool.  Struggled the most picking Gomez/Henson and really wanted to pick Mesenbrink but I think Carr gets the job done with his reattacks

I think Carr can match MM's pace, and Mes could lose the match if he doesn't wrestle a strategic match. He's prone to cutting opponents or giving up a TD late in the period

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2 minutes ago, CHROMEBIRD said:

I think Carr can match MM's pace, and Mes could lose the match if he doesn't wrestle a strategic match. He's prone to cutting opponents or giving up a TD late in the period

Exactly this.  The attack rate is impressive but that is what Carr wants.  A careless mistake by Mess and Carr will make him pay.  Makes the match so interesting.  If Mesenbrink wins I think he'll be down early in the match.  Could be down by 2 maybe 3 takedowns but manages to make a mad dash in the late 2nd into 3rd.  Think his path to victory is chaos because I cant envision him picking his shots and being strategic 

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