Why Penn State Won't Win The NCAA Tournament

[SocraTease]

I tend to construe this post as provocative and not-so-serious, but if I were to indulge I would raise at least 10 points to consider:

1.  PSU will likely take all 10 starters to the Big Dance this year.  Other years, they have only had as few as 8 go and still won it handily.

2. A few weeks ago, many people were talking about PSU breaking the all-time scoring record.  What has transpired since then?  Answer: not much besides the end of the season approaching and long break before conference championships so there is not much to discuss besides counterfactuals and hypotheticals.

3. Who has a reasonable chance of beating PSU even if they falter?  I don't see anyone reasonably suggesting another team can do it.   Take a look at the projected gap in predicted team scoring numbers based on seeds that FLO, Intermat, and wrestling sites have put together.  It's a long way to catch up.

4.  PSU tends to rise historically to the occasion at Nationals.  Most other teams do not.  It's just a statistical fact.  Need we remind ourselves that PSU has won 10 team titles in the last 12 years, including the last 2.

5.  PSU has recently had all ten guys ranked in the top 10 (or 12) something that hasn't happened in their team history ever, if memory serves.  5 of their guys are currently ranked #1 by all the ranking services.

6.  PSU presently has 6 UNDEFEATED wrestlers heading into conference action.  I repeat: 6.

7. PSU has two 3-time NCAA champions on their roster as well as 2 finalists  (second place) from last year, along with a 3rd place finisher, fourth place finisher, and a fifth place finisher.  That's 7 returning All Americans. 

8.  Despite the drop in bonus numbers last year, PSU usually scores more than almost all other teams in bonus points.

9.  PSU has 3 guys on their roster who have not surrendered a takedown all year (CS, AB, and GK).

10.  PSU has one not-so-secret weapon (Sanderson) and one more secret weapon (Cunningham).

Can PSU falter and the team race get closer than expected?  It's certainly possible.  Is it likely?  Well, if you think so, I'm sure there is somewhere you can place a bet on that.  Hell, maybe even Jimmy C. will step forward.  

[Husker_Du]

@BobDole , have security circle the wagons.

we have a breach.

jimmy's account has been compromised. 

over. psht. 

[Rassling]

  On 2/20/2024 at 8:08 AM, SocraTease said:

4.  PSU tends to rise historically to the occasion at Nationals. 

Expand  

phenomenal assessment but this quote from SocraTease ties in his other 9 points quite nicely like a tightly wound rope. 

[jmoney]

125 Ayala 2, Smith 5 DeAugustino 9, Davis 10, Camacho 18 - NC STATE WEAK

133 Ragusin 4, Orine 5, Nagao 8, Van Dee 12, Schriever 31- IOWA WEAK, NEBRASKA WEAK

141 Bartlett 1, Woods 3, Hardy 6, Lemley 7, Jack 8

149 Lovett 1, Gomez 4, Arrington 5, Kasak 9, Rathjen 13

157 Haines 1, Scott 5, Franek 9, Robb 11, Lewan 16

165 Mesenbrink 5, Caliendo 7, Amine 9, Taylor 12, Fields 15- NC ST, NEBRASKA WEAK

174 Starocci 1, Griffith 3, Kennedy 5, Wilson 47, Faison 53- NC ST, NEBRASKA WEAK

184 Pinto 5, Truax 8, Fishback 9, Bullock 24, Riggins 57- IOWA WEAK, MICHIGAN WEAK

197 Brooks 1, Hidlay 2, Allred 10, Glazier 13, Striggow 99- MICHIGAN WEAK

285 Kerkvliet 1, Davison 6, Trephan 10, Hill 28, Hutmacher 102- NEBRASKA WEAK, IOWA WEAK

Michigan is weak at 2

NC ST/Iowa are weak at 3

Nebraska is weak at 4

         PSU    Michigan    NC-ST    Iowa    Nebraska

125    12          7                12              3          6

133     6          4                  7            20        12

141      2           7                8                5         4

149      12          7               6                8         1

157        3          6               5                 7       8

165        3           12          20               8        16

174         1            6           DNP            12       DNP

184         4          DNP        8                 DNP   6

197        1           DNP         3                 7         12

285        1          4              12               20       DNP  

[1032004]

  On 2/20/2024 at 8:08 AM, SocraTease said:

I tend to construe this post as provocative and not-so-serious, but if I were to indulge I would raise at least 10 points to consider:

1.  PSU will likely take all 10 starters to the Big Dance this year.  Other years, they have only had as few as 8 go and still won it handily.

2. A few weeks ago, many people were talking about PSU breaking the all-time scoring record.  What has transpired since then?  Answer: not much besides the end of the season approaching and long break before conference championships so there is not much to discuss besides counterfactuals and hypotheticals.

3. Who has a reasonable chance of beating PSU even if they falter?  I don't see anyone reasonably suggesting another team can do it.   Take a look at the projected gap in predicted team scoring numbers based on seeds that FLO, Intermat, and wrestling sites have put together.  It's a long way to catch up.

4.  PSU tends to rise historically to the occasion at Nationals.  Most other teams do not.  It's just a statistical fact.  Need we remind ourselves that PSU has won 10 team titles in the last 12 years, including the last 2.

5.  PSU has recently had all ten guys ranked in the top 10 (or 12) something that hasn't happened in their team history ever, if memory serves.  5 of their guys are currently ranked #1 by all the ranking services.

6.  PSU presently has 6 UNDEFEATED wrestlers heading into conference action.  I repeat: 6.

7. PSU has two 3-time NCAA champions on their roster as well as 2 finalists  (second place) from last year, along with a 3rd place finisher, fourth place finisher, and a fifth place finisher.  That's 7 returning All Americans. 

8.  Despite the drop in bonus numbers last year, PSU usually scores more than almost all other teams in bonus points.

9.  PSU has 3 guys on their roster who have not surrendered a takedown all year (CS, AB, and GK).

10.  PSU has one not-so-secret weapon (Sanderson) and one more secret weapon (Cunningham).

Can PSU falter and the team race get closer than expected?  It's certainly possible.  Is it likely?  Well, if you think so, I'm sure there is somewhere you can place a bet on that.  Hell, maybe even Jimmy C. will step forward.  

Expand  

The talk of them breaking the scoring record died down after Van Ness got injured, IMO

[PortaJohn]

  On 2/20/2024 at 4:31 AM, ionel said:

Why Penn State Won't Win The NCAA Tournament?

Back to the question:  because Wkn ate all the ice-cream and they closed down the Creamery.  Did I win?

Expand  

Don't forget you're on Post a Cinnabon thread next week.  It's in the contract.

[ionel]

  On 2/20/2024 at 2:01 PM, PortaJohn said:

Don't forget you're on Post a Cinnabon thread next week.  It's in the contract.

Expand  

Sure but I can still go with the this week correct?

[KLCarnegieTech_1969]

Who is going to beat them?

[KLCarnegieTech_1969]

Who is going to catch them?  PSU hasn't had a close match in the toughest conference.  Oklahoma State, Nebraska, Missouri and NC State are all real good but aren't going to catch them.

Lehigh	University Park, Pa.	W 30-10
12/10/2023	Hofstra	University Park, Pa.	W 43-10
1/5/2024	at Oregon State	Corvallis, Ore.	W 36-3
1/14/2024	Indiana	University Park, Pa.	W 46-0
1/19/2024	at Michigan	Ann Arbor, Mich.	W 27-9
1/21/2024	at Michigan State	East Lansing, Mich.	W 35-0
1/28/2024	at Maryland	College Park, MD	W 42-6
2/2/2024	Ohio State	University Park, PA	W 28-9
2/9/2024	at Iowa	Iowa City, Iowa	W 29-6
2/12/2024	Rutgers	University Park, Pa.	W 35-3
2/18/2024	Nebraska	University Park, Pa.	W 22-13
2/25/2024	Edinboro

 

[PortaJohn]

  On 2/20/2024 at 2:46 PM, ionel said:

Sure but I can still go with the this week correct?

Expand  

Only if you incorporate ice cream to your Post next week

[Wrestleknownothing]

  On 2/20/2024 at 5:51 PM, KLCarnegieTech_1969 said:

Who is going to catch them?  PSU hasn't had a close match in the toughest conference.  Oklahoma State, Nebraska, Missouri and NC State are all real good but aren't going to catch them.

Lehigh	University Park, Pa.	W 30-10
12/10/2023	Hofstra	University Park, Pa.	W 43-10
1/5/2024	at Oregon State	Corvallis, Ore.	W 36-3
1/14/2024	Indiana	University Park, Pa.	W 46-0
1/19/2024	at Michigan	Ann Arbor, Mich.	W 27-9
1/21/2024	at Michigan State	East Lansing, Mich.	W 35-0
1/28/2024	at Maryland	College Park, MD	W 42-6
2/2/2024	Ohio State	University Park, PA	W 28-9
2/9/2024	at Iowa	Iowa City, Iowa	W 29-6
2/12/2024	Rutgers	University Park, Pa.	W 35-3
2/18/2024	Nebraska	University Park, Pa.	W 22-13
2/25/2024	Edinboro

 

Expand  

There has been a #1 seed lose in the first round as recently as 2007, so......