It's time: Predict the 2024 125 pound NCAA champ

[Ohio Elite]

125 is a true debacle..

[jmoney]

I think the champ will come from the list of- Ramos, Stanich, Noto, Figueroa, Barnett, Flynn- in that order, with a % likelihood of 30, 25, 20, 10, 9, 6, respectively. Food for thought, Stanich broke a 63 match win streak by D3 national champ/4th year wrestler Joziah Fry up with a smooth 11-4 victory. Fry, for his part, defeated backup 4th year wrestler Seymour of Lehigh 5-4. Seymour beat Shawver and Medley at Midlands last year but does not have many wins to speak of this year.

[1032004]

1 hour ago, jmoney said:

I think the champ will come from the list of- Ramos, Stanich, Noto, Figueroa, Barnett, Flynn- in that order, with a % likelihood of 30, 25, 20, 10, 9, 6, respectively. Food for thought, Stanich broke a 63 match win streak by D3 national champ/4th year wrestler Joziah Fry up with a smooth 11-4 victory. Fry, for his part, defeated backup 4th year wrestler Seymour of Lehigh 5-4. Seymour beat Shawver and Medley at Midlands last year but does not have many wins to speak of this year.

No way anyone has more than like a 10% chance of winning and there’s definitely like 25 guys that can win.

I’d go something like:

Ramos 10%

Noto 10%

Figueroa 10%

Ayala 10%

Stanich 5%

Smith 5%

Barnett 5%

Flynn 5%

Surtin 4%

DeAugustino 4%

Spratley 4%

Camacho 4%

Peterson 4%

Provo 3%

Volk 3%

Davis 3%

McKee 3%

Kaylor 3%

All others 5%

[ionel]

1 hour ago, 1032004 said:

No way anyone has more than like a 10% chance of winning and there’s definitely like 25 guys that can win.

I’d go something like:

Ramos 10%

Noto 10%

Figueroa 10%

Ayala 10%

Stanich 5%

Smith 5%

Barnett 5%

Flynn 5%

Surtin 4%

DeAugustino 4%

Spratley 4%

Camacho 4%

Peterson 4%

Provo 3%

Volk 3%

Davis 3%

McKee 3%

Kaylor 3%

All others 5%

But does Fix or Vito have a 10% chance of making the cut to 125 cause if they can I'd give either a 99% chance of winning. 

[1032004]

24 minutes ago, ionel said:

But does Fix or Vito have a 10% chance of making the cut to 125 cause if they can I'd give either a 99% chance of winning. 

If so they’d still have only the 5th best odds

[flyingcement]

We really should do a pool specifically for 125 with money involved over on the betting forum here.  Will be like playing roulette 

[1032004]

1 minute ago, flyingcement said:

We really should do a pool specifically for 125 with money involved over on the betting forum here.  Will be like playing roulette 

Maybe a fantasy draft of the whole bracket 

[ionel]

7 minutes ago, flyingcement said:

We really should do a pool specifically for 125 with money involved over on the betting forum here.  Will be like playing roulette 

But since there might be some state law legal issues there, I'm willing to bet my best bottle of bourbon straight up against Wkn's best bottle of bourbon. 

[lu_alum]

We really should do a pool specifically for 125 with money involved over on the betting forum here.  Will be like playing roulette 

Can’t wait to see how 125 shakes out when we conduct the draft for this year’s NCAA fantasy competition.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[jmoney]

Nice list, if you're serious about this I'll give you 5 to 1 odds on the bundle of Surtin, Peterson, McKee, Kaylor, Smith.

[jmoney]

18 hours ago, 1032004 said:

No way anyone has more than like a 10% chance of winning and there’s definitely like 25 guys that can win.

I’d go something like:

Ramos 10%

Noto 10%

Figueroa 10%

Ayala 10%

Stanich 5%

Smith 5%

Barnett 5%

Flynn 5%

Surtin 4%

DeAugustino 4%

Spratley 4%

Camacho 4%

Peterson 4%

Provo 3%

Volk 3%

Davis 3%

McKee 3%

Kaylor 3%

All others 5%

Nice list, if you're serious about this I'll give you 5 to 1 odds on the bundle of Surtin, Peterson, McKee, Kaylor, Smith.

[CHROMEBIRD]

I like Ayala's chances as long as his coaches can keep him healthy and not worn down to a nub by the postseason. And not to get too far ahead of myself, but it'll be cool if we see double-Ayala title threats in the future at 125 & 133 when Dru matriculates.

[jmoney]

Great wrestler...he can escape on bottom but I still feel like he relies on the takedown game to win his matches entirely. I think he struggles if he's held to the mat or reaches a great defensive wrestler. He also looks like he's a bit skinny for the weight.

[1032004]

2 hours ago, jmoney said:

Nice list, if you're serious about this I'll give you 5 to 1 odds on the bundle of Surtin, Peterson, McKee, Kaylor, Smith.

I don’t gamble, what does that mean?

[TNwrestling]

In Flynn we trust

[flyingcement]

I've been working on a table with the top 36 guys on both axes, and the team points each scored against the other reflected in the intersecting square.  read vertically, you have to reverse the sign, read horizontally, its accurate.  I'll post it later

[MizzouFan01]

19 hours ago, lu_alum said:

Can’t wait to see how 125 shakes out when we conduct the draft for this year’s NCAA fantasy competition.


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I would think with the disparity in the weight, unless someone catches fire, that weight will be ignored until later rounds. 

[flyingcement]

Rating	Wrestler	School
18	Luke Stanich	Lehigh
16	Drake Ayala	Iowa
12	Jore Volk	Wyoming
10	Matt Ramos	Purdue
10	Troy Spratley	Oklahoma State
6	Braeden Davis	Penn State
6	Brett Ungar	Cornell
6	Caleb Smith	Nebraska
6	Cooper Flynn	Virginia Tech
5	Nico Provo	Stanford
4	Kysen Terukina	Iowa State
4	Noah Surtin	Missouri
3	Eric Barnett	Wisconsin
3	Jett Strickenberger	West Virginia
3	Michael DeAugustino	Michigan
0	Brayden Palmer	Chattanooga
0	Tanner Jordan	South Dakota State
-2	Jack Maida	American
-2	Tyler Klinsky	Rider
-3	Anthony Noto	Lock Haven
-3	Eli Griffin	Cal Baptist
-3	Richie Figueroa	Arizona State
-3	Stevo Poulin	Northern Colorado
-4	Anthony Molton	Campbell
-4	Spencer Moore	North Carolina
-5	Brandon Kaylor	Oregon State
-6	Brendan McCrone	Ohio State
-6	Colton Camacho	Pittsburgh
-6	Dean Peterson	Rutgers
-9	Patrick McKee	Minnesota
-12	Jakob Camacho	NC State
-13	Tristan Lujan	Michigan State
-15	Diego Sotelo	Harvard
-16	Trever Anderson	Northern Iowa

 

Edited January 19 by flyingcement

[flyingcement]

7 hours ago, TNwrestling said:

In Flynn we trust

I agree- Tim Flynn will guide Strickenberger to the promised land

Edited January 19 by flyingcement

[jmoney]

9 hours ago, 1032004 said:

I don’t gamble, what does that mean?

You would wager $1 for every $5 of mine. 1 person from that 5 member list I named would have to win for you to win. Someone else would have to win for me to win.

[billyhoyle]

I voted for Poulin, but the vote was based entirely on the youtube video from 15 years ago.  

[JBluegill133]

National finals preview tonight Ayala vs Ramos.  Would love to see Ayala at the top of the heap when the 125lbs dust settles in March.

[1032004]

4 hours ago, jmoney said:

You would wager $1 for every $5 of mine. 1 person from that 5 member list I named would have to win for you to win. Someone else would have to win for me to win.

Hmm, let me think about it lol.  How much $ we talking?

[lu_alum]

7 hours ago, flyingcement said:

Rating	Wrestler	School
18	Luke Stanich	Lehigh
16	Drake Ayala	Iowa
12	Jore Volk	Wyoming
10	Matt Ramos	Purdue
10	Troy Spratley	Oklahoma State
6	Braeden Davis	Penn State
6	Brett Ungar	Cornell
6	Caleb Smith	Nebraska
6	Cooper Flynn	Virginia Tech
5	Nico Provo	Stanford
4	Kysen Terukina	Iowa State
4	Noah Surtin	Missouri
3	Eric Barnett	Wisconsin
3	Jett Strickenberger	West Virginia
3	Michael DeAugustino	Michigan
0	Brayden Palmer	Chattanooga
0	Tanner Jordan	South Dakota State
-2	Jack Maida	American
-2	Tyler Klinsky	Rider
-3	Anthony Noto	Lock Haven
-3	Eli Griffin	Cal Baptist
-3	Richie Figueroa	Arizona State
-3	Stevo Poulin	Northern Colorado
-4	Anthony Molton	Campbell
-4	Spencer Moore	North Carolina
-5	Brandon Kaylor	Oregon State
-6	Brendan McCrone	Ohio State
-6	Colton Camacho	Pittsburgh
-6	Dean Peterson	Rutgers
-9	Patrick McKee	Minnesota
-12	Jakob Camacho	NC State
-13	Tristan Lujan	Michigan State
-15	Diego Sotelo	Harvard
-16	Trever Anderson	Northern Iowa

 

I like the result. Can you explain your methodology?

EDIT:  Looked above and saw your explanation.  Net team points generated v the field.  Interesting way to look at it.

Edited January 19 by lu_alum

[flyingcement]

3 hours ago, lu_alum said:

I like the result. Can you explain your methodology?

EDIT:  Looked above and saw your explanation.  Net team points generated v the field.  Interesting way to look at it.

Yeah it's not a projection or a ranking necessarily.  I just felt given all the noise in the weight class this year, it was a helpful way of seeing how these guys have competed against each other this year.  Of course that may not be a good predictor of the future.