Iowa v. Oregon State (Sunday 11-19-23)

[Le duke]

Nothing I have seen from Arnold makes me think he’s on Wittlake’s level and I’m shocked that so many are picking him to win.


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[poorwrestler]

Nothing I have seen from Arnold makes me think he’s on Wittlake’s level and I’m shocked that so many are picking him to win.


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Agree 100%. Everyone really underselling Wittlake before this dual.


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[Gus]

10 hours ago, Le duke said:

Nothing I have seen from Arnold makes me think he’s on Wittlake’s level and I’m shocked that so many are picking him to win.


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How do you feel about Cole Mirasola, Rocco Welsh, Tate Naaktaborgen, Luca Augustine? Arnold has a big hit list. If he was wearing a navy colored singlet with a white belt around the middle I think you would have a different feeling about it. 

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

17 minutes ago, Gus said:

How do you feel about Cole Mirasola, Rocco Welsh, Tate Naaktaborgen, Luca Augustine? Arnold has a big hit list. If he was wearing a navy colored singlet with a white belt around the middle I think you would have a different feeling about it. 

100%

[1032004]

1 hour ago, Gus said:

How do you feel about Cole Mirasola, Rocco Welsh, Tate Naaktaborgen, Luca Augustine? Arnold has a big hit list. If he was wearing a navy colored singlet with a white belt around the middle I think you would have a different feeling about it. 

Do you think any of these guys could beat Travis Wittlake right now?

[Gus]

22 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

Do you think any of these guys could beat Travis Wittlake right now?

Rocco Welsh is a stud. I think he could contend for AA honors right now. Same with Arnold. 

[nhs67]

12 hours ago, Le duke said:

Nothing I have seen from Arnold makes me think he’s on Wittlake’s level and I’m shocked that so many are picking him to win.


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Wittlake of 2021 is not the same as Wittlake of today.  He hasn't done anything to make me believe he is on another level than Arnold, who is ready right now to compete for AA honors.

Who was the last All American he beat?

I will give you a hint: It was the consi-semis at 165lbs in the watered down 2021 NCAA Wrestling Championships.

[nhs67]

11 hours ago, poorwrestler said:

Agree 100%. Everyone really underselling Wittlake before this dual.


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Okay then... sell me him properly.

Has he beaten anybody that has earned AA honors at 174lbs?  What about last year at 184lbs?  What about the year before that at 165lbs?

The answer is no, so again: Sell me.

[Idaho]

Just now, nhs67 said:

Wittlake of 2021 is not the same as Wittlake of today.  He hasn't done anything to make me believe he is on another level than Arnold, who is ready right now to compete for AA honors.

Who was the last All American he beat?

I will give you a hint: It was the consi-semis at 165lbs in the watered down 2021 NCAA Wrestling Championships.

You are correct, he is now healthy and at his correct weight. 

Who was the last college AA that Arnold beat? Sell me on Arnold being an AA this year. 

[poorwrestler]

Okay then... sell me him properly.
Has he beaten anybody that has earned AA honors at 174lbs?  What about last year at 184lbs?  What about the year before that at 165lbs?
The answer is no, so again: Sell me.

He’s not going to be wrestling an AA, he’s going to be wrestling a true freshman that hasn’t wrestled a college match outside of a D3 open. I’m curious why Wittlake is the one that has to prove himself in this discussion and Arnold is the one being given the automatic leg up.

If we were talking about Wittlake against like, Patrick Kennedy for example I think it would be a very different conversation.

You guys must know more about Arnold than I do, what I’ve seen is a lot of holding center, good defense, the occasional burst of maybe one or two attack per match if he’s wrestling a kid that he doesn’t totally outmatch. I think he’s going to be good in the future, but I’m not picking him here just yet.


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[nhs67]

2 minutes ago, Idaho said:

You are correct, he is now healthy and at his correct weight. 

Who was the last college AA that Arnold beat? Sell me on Arnold being an AA this year. 

I am not trying to say Wittlake is a bum, sorry if it came or comes off that way.

I am trying to explain why people will believe this is a match.

There is enough data to suggest that Wittlake is not the wrestler he was years ago.  Including a 2-0 lackuster victory over the perennial contender Mark Takara of Utah Valley.  His worst win this year is far worse than Arnold's best win this year, which is a 14-7 victory over his own teammate Will Carano.

All this said, I expect a one score match and it is a coinflip as to who will win.  I want Wittlake to succeed.  That said it will not surprise me the slightest if Arnold wins.

[nhs67]

Just now, poorwrestler said:

He’s not going to be wrestling an AA, he’s going to be wrestling a true freshman that hasn’t wrestled a college match outside of a D3 open. I’m curious why Wittlake is the one that has to prove himself in this discussion and Arnold is the one being given the automatic leg up.

If we were talking about Wittlake against like, Patrick Kennedy for example I think it would be a very different conversation.

You guys must know more about Arnold than I do, what I’ve seen is a lot of holding center, good defense, the occasional burst of maybe one or two attack per match if he’s wrestling a kid that he doesn’t totally outmatch. I think he’s going to be good in the future, but I’m not picking him here just yet.


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You need to watch Arnold's matches from this last summer.  The crop of 170lbers that just came through in him, Welsh and Barr are guys that are as ready for NCAA D1 as we have seen for 170lbers coming out straight away.

If you don't think Arnold is in this match than you know nothing about Arnold.

Wittlake hasn't been the same since he AAd.  If he is healthy, that is great.  I will root for him until I am blue in the face.  We haven't seen AA level production from him in years, though.

[Idaho]

1 minute ago, nhs67 said:

I am not trying to say Wittlake is a bum, sorry if it came or comes off that way.

I am trying to explain why people will believe this is a match.

There is enough data to suggest that Wittlake is not the wrestler he was years ago.  Including a 2-0 lackuster victory over the perennial contender Mark Takara of Utah Valley.  His worst win this year is far worse than Arnold's best win this year, which is a 14-7 victory over his own teammate Will Carano.

All this said, I expect a one score match and it is a coinflip as to who will win.  I want Wittlake to succeed.  That said it will not surprise me the slightest if Arnold wins.

I agree - it will be a good match. It's not so much the belief that Arnold will be "in the match" as it is that WIttlake is washed up and Arnold is a lock. 

[nhs67]

1 minute ago, Idaho said:

I agree - it will be a good match. It's not so much the belief that Arnold will be "in the match" as it is that WIttlake is washed up and Arnold is a lock. 

I don't think that Wittlake is a wash.

I believe he wrestled the tournament of his life in a watered down 2021 bracket and hasn't been right since.  Most recoveries from injury are mental and not physical.

After seeing ThugMassa G get his moxy back his final year, I hope Wittlake can do the same.  The only version of ThugMassa that I think beats his RS-Frosh 32W-3L 3rd place finish is his ThugMassa Final Evo version.

We haven't seen a version of Wittlake yet that beats his 2021 4th Place Finish version.

[Gus]

15 minutes ago, Idaho said:

I agree - it will be a good match. It's not so much the belief that Arnold will be "in the match" as it is that WIttlake is washed up and Arnold is a lock. 

I think that Wittlake is probably a 2.5 point favorite over Arnold at this point for what it's worth. I just think Arnold is going to be very good and could make some noise if he gets the start this weekend.

[nhs67]

5 minutes ago, Gus said:

I think that Wittlake is probably a 2.5 point favorite over Arnold at this point for what it's worth. I just think Arnold is going to be very good and could make some noise if he gets the start this weekend.

I think Wittlake is a 0.5 point favorite.  I don't think he holds an edge on the feet at all and I believe it will come to mat wrestling.

If the line is 2.5 for Wittlake I am taking the under.

[ionel]

17 minutes ago, Gus said:

I think that Wittlake is probably a 2.5 point favorite over Arnold at this point for what it's worth. I just think Arnold is going to be very good and could make some noise if he gets the start this weekend.

 

11 minutes ago, nhs67 said:

I think Wittlake is a 0.5 point favorite.  I don't think he holds an edge on the feet at all and I believe it will come to mat wrestling.

If the line is 2.5 for Wittlake I am taking the under.

But are you guys giving those lines based on 2pt td or have you factored in the new 3pt?   Gotta keep up with the times.  

[nhs67]

8 minutes ago, ionel said:

 

But are you guys giving those lines based on 2pt td or have you factored in the new 3pt?   Gotta keep up with the times.  

Mine doesn't matter.

For his I assumed 2.5 considered a 3pt TD.

[Warm Up Champ]

13 hours ago, Idaho said:

Shock the Hawk!

 

[nhs67]

3 minutes ago, Warm Up Champ said:

 

Last time I implemented the shocker, the Wife was (pleasantly) surprised.

It was an interesting Tuesday evening to say the least.

[1032004]

59 minutes ago, nhs67 said:

I don't think that Wittlake is a wash.

I believe he wrestled the tournament of his life in a watered down 2021 bracket and hasn't been right since.  Most recoveries from injury are mental and not physical.

After seeing ThugMassa G get his moxy back his final year, I hope Wittlake can do the same.  The only version of ThugMassa that I think beats his RS-Frosh 32W-3L 3rd place finish is his ThugMassa Final Evo version.

We haven't seen a version of Wittlake yet that beats his 2021 4th Place Finish version.

You keep saying 2021 was “watered down,” but 1 of Wittlake’s losses in that tournament was to a guy that likely wouldn’t have even been in it if not for the “free year.”

He still has some decent wins since though.  He beat Austin Murphy this year who finished R12 during the “watered down” year.   Last year he beat Hawks twice and Tate Samuelson who both finished R16.

[nhs67]

2 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

You keep saying 2021 was “watered down,” but 1 of Wittlake’s losses in that tournament was to a guy that likely wouldn’t have even been in it if not for the “free year.”

He still has some decent wins since though.  He beat Austin Murphy this year who finished R12 during the “watered down” year.   Last year he beat Hawks twice and Tate Samuelson who both finished R16.

So you agree.  He hasn't beaten an All-American since the 'watered down' year?

You understand why it was watered down, correct?  It isn't an opinion.  It is what actually happened.

[nhs67]

8 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

You keep saying 2021 was “watered down,” but 1 of Wittlake’s losses in that tournament was to a guy that likely wouldn’t have even been in it if not for the “free year.”

He still has some decent wins since though.  He beat Austin Murphy this year who finished R12 during the “watered down” year.   Last year he beat Hawks twice and Tate Samuelson who both finished R16.

What?  Who?

[1032004]

6 minutes ago, nhs67 said:

What?  Who?

O'Toole.  For that reason I don't necessarily agree that, particularly 165, was "watered down."  

Edited November 17, 2023 by 1032004

[Gus]

19 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

O'Toole.  For that reason I don't necessarily agree that, particularly 165, was "watered down."  

 I do not think that 165 was "watered down" either. There was some very bad injury luck to some of the high seeded wrestlers though. Marinelli (the 1 seed) broke ribs, Mekhi (the 4 seed) blew out his shoulder and I believe that Anthony Valencia (the 2 seed) was dealing with injuries also (but I could be misremembering that - ASU fans can fact check me).