At worst, it would be 5-4 conservative (and do you reeeeeaally think Merrick Garland on the SC would be that great?), and that’s if you sit there with a crystal ball and pretend everything else would happen exactly as it did. There is a chance Trump would’ve had a better turn-out and won in 2020, if the SC was more in play. Hell, RGB might’ve held in until last year, and even she said Roe was flawed law and may have sided with the conservatives. And, if things were really different, and there was a liberal majority in the SC and Roe was held, there’s a chance there’d be 60 republican senators, and we’d have President McCarthy right now.