BuckyBadger

Ok, so why did ten year treasury yields go up to 4.5? There is something called the basis trade. Hedge funds borrow heavily to buy treasuries and sell a hedge like futures against the treasury. Because they borrow, or trade on margin to buy treasuries, they can get a margin call and be forced to sell their positions. As treasuries started selling off, everyone on the same side of this trade started getting margin calls, so there were forced to sell and it created a bit of a downward spiral.

It’s really hard to predict what might happen with rates, the stock market, the economy etc. A few weeks ago rates were trending down and the market expected the Fed to cut rates. Fast forward to today and with the tariff announcements expectations obviously changed. I think a lot of this depends on how far Trump is willing to go as far as decoupling from China. If he’s serious, then it probably does mean there will be some real economic pain. Higher supply chain costs —> higher prices —>inflation. That usually means higher interest rates. China could also dump a lot of their treasuries and drive yields higher. The other scenario is Trump has already backed off on most of the tariffs for everyone except China. He has even come out with statements like he and Xi have a great relationship and there is a good chance of a deal with China. To me that indicates he isn’t serious about truly decoupling and enduring the pain we’d need to in order to pivot away from China. I really don’t know where all this goes, but my guess is he probably has to walk a lot of this stuff back while some how trying to declare victory without much meaningful change. We probably get some more volatility in the markets. I wish I had bought when the S&P 500 was down 20% from its high. History has shown that works out really well. Maybe we get back down there and maybe this thing really spirals and it goes even lower. If there’s one thing I’ve learned over the years it’s to just buy when the price craters, don’t try and analyze too much, because it’s too complex to really figure out. Markets are simply a bunch of human emotions pushing against each other. I didn’t buy at the lows because I made that mistake to “analyze”, if it gets down there again I plan to just hold my nose and pull the trigger. Hope that helps, but probably tells you nothing you didn’t know already!

I work in the treasury department of a large corp managing interest rate risk.

Yeah, the teams with no money for NIL, and that can only offer partial scholarships are pretty loyally

With Ryder to OSU, a big competitor, this looks more like a bad decision by Cael and staff. I guess time will tell.

My money is on Sacred Heart. The Holy Spirit sent him a message.

As a badger fan I hope they do not go after AJ. He is not the way to turn things around.

I agree to an extent but at this level it’s almost like splitting hairs. You might eke out an inch better performance, but if it doesn’t work out you potentially lose on both recruits (one doesn’t perform as expected and the other leaves). There is a certain risk they are taking on for an unclear benefit. Of course, they’re PSU so they’re not going to have a problem stocking up on talent. So it’s not like they’re at risk of dropping to 5th place or something.

I suppose the other possibility is Ryder was already on the way out and that’s why they brought in Welsh.

The get Welsh but lose Ryder. These two seem like a wash to me. Even if Welsh ends up with slightly better results, points wise at NCAAs, there is very little difference. The flip scenario is Ryder is better than Welsh. Then the staff looks pretty short sighted here. Maybe even more important in this what it does to team cohesiveness. Just a few days ago before all this transfer stuff Starocci tweeted something in support of Ryder. That obviously didn’t work out. i get bringing someone in for a weight that underperforms PSUs standards, but recruiting over Ryder seems to have much more potential negatives than positives here.

College wrestling is still fun, but becoming less fun

Not much chatter about him. Freshman NCAA champ who I think was the 50th rated recruit. Most freshman champs would betting their own “Potential 4 timer” threads. I don’t know much about him. I’m sure he was good and maybe a bit under the radar coming in, but surprised there isn’t more discussion about him. Maybe one of those guys that just made leaps once he got to a good college room.

I wondered what happened to Yasguirre. He beat Hardy his redshirt year, I believe. And just didn’t look the same this year.

The scenario you lay out would be great, but like you said, very unlikely. I don’t know how old Messenbrink is, but very rare at that stage in life to take over a DI program. And then of course, where do you find big booster money. But more realistically, find a younger coach that Askren is on good terms with. Brandvold seems like the obvious choice. He’s a UW alum and has recruited AWA guys to Minnesota. If you had a guy like him who could recruit only a quarter of the talent the state produces now, you’d have had a number of AAs and a championship or two the last five years or so.

The state of Wisconsin had 4 finalists, 2 of them champs, I believe none of them ever considered UW for school. Just another data point showing what the program could be if they could be recrui in state.

JB is doing a great job of announcing and doing play by play. But please stop trying to pronounce accents of foreign names. It sounds very forced.

Are the Stouts brothers?

The year Trump came to NCAAs and when they asked Starocci about meeting him he said it was really cool and Trump has a big pair of balls.

What happened with him this year? Last year he looked like he was on the verge of being a title contender. Barring injury, I can’t think of someone that looked so good and then had a complete drop off.

What’s the minimum number of matches to qualify for nationals? Maybe 8? If he was 3-1 coming into the season, then OSU was betting he’d have at least 4 matches this weekend? Essentially all or none. I guess its working out.

I’m not familiar with the PAC-12 going in on Olympics sports, what did they do differently from other conferences? From what I could tell the demise of the PAC-12 has more to do with revenue sharing/TV deals etc not being as competitive for many of the schools compared to joining other conferences. And probably little to nothing to do with investing in Olympic sports. But I’m no expert in this, just my impression.

We’ve always been a money loser for athletic departments. But historically the Universities were the development infrastructure for many Olympic sports, and I guess that was valued enough to keep these programs. If college sports becomes completely profit driven, and it’s shaping up that way, then yes we are in big trouble. If the powers that be still value the Olympic development aspect, and cut a slice of the pie for these sports then hopefully we’ll have a good wrestling infrastructure going forward.

That’s true and I agree. But what about when it works and it just makes us worse off? For example, constant updates on the phone whether it’s text/twitter etc are actually rewiring our brains and arguably leading to depression. And for what purpose? So we can see who liked a pic we posted.

Having grown up in the 80s I am old enough to have experienced life without the internet, smart phones (or even dumb cell phones), instant updates etc. While there is no arguing how certain technological advancements have made our lives easier and less burdensome in many ways I often wonder if it truly makes life better. The 80s or some time adjacent seems like a peak in terms of balancing living more comfortable lives because of technological advancement but not becoming such dependent, non-thinking, overly depressed people so fractured as a society in the way we are today. There is some inflection point we passed a while back with technology. Now, a lot of people wish AI would go away, myself included.

Cory Cooperman, Scott Schatzman, David Hirsh, Bill Hyman are a few others. Not sure about Eric Tannenbaum