GV4444

Your expected value would be 4, almost 5 champions. I think your numbers are optimistic. Lilledahl would only be 50% against Bouzakis alone. I would go with 2 champs, 2 seconds and 4 other AAs.

Best article so far, but I spent younger years building models. If you spent 3 months adjusting the 12 years of data, your model's predictive power would be much better (e.g. normalize for every rule change like 3-pt takedown). Your model truly would be a better predictor than the chalk in all cases. Going by the chalk will always overvalue the top 8/undervalue the lower seeds. The probability distribution of each wrestler over or under performing will always create such results. A #2 seed can only overachieve by finishing #1, whereas the 16 seed has far more scenarios that can allow overachievement. Now, factor in the way points are distributed and the point results (chalk vs. model) will skew even further (e.g. point difference between 1 and 2 greater than 17 and 18. Can't wait to see the model prediction after seeding is done for NCAAs.

https://www.facebook.com/reel/899754092632452 I'm guessing the guy wrestled at some point in his life. Noticed how his hands were unlocked once the guy hit the ground.

It is completely false. Hillary is both evil. ruthless, and cunning and has always been so, starting with her service on the House Watergate investigation. Walz is just a moronic putz like 75% of all politicians. I could make a really long list of comparable politicians. Walz is just worse at hiding it.

Nice and tough are not mutually exclusive.

Crazy annoying and says stupid stuff. "Improve!" after 5 seconds of riding. "Keep it Legal" and chastised wrestler for using illegal move, but "keep it legal" can be taken two ways. I would assume that it is legal at the moment and to keep it so, not a warning to change it to something legal. If it was illegal as he was yelling "keep it legal", then he should blow the whistle. The side chatter was fingernails on a chalkboard.

This is what I wrote in the match thread. I haven't changed my mind. Match finishes the fall and Davis goes full cry baby, angry petulant child, who makes lousy decisions. If he isn't all that, then he needs to stop acting like it. While lying on his back with his hands over his eyes, Hardy gives him a couple of taps on the chest in a "great match" sort of way and Davis gets up and shoves him, tripping Hardy to the ground. Totally classless. He needs to hand write an apology to Hardy, Nebraska, and his teammates, or maybe go on 2 year mission to Tonga. Calling the taps by Hardy slaps is silly, nor does it fit the context. Brock Hardy and Bo Nickal are not the same. As a PSU fan, I hope Ono wrestles 141 the next two years. I'm tired of cheering for me. He whines after every loss.

LL looked very sharp with well executed TDs. Blaze with not a whole lot of offense against a tough opponent with excellent hand fighting skills. Davis aggressively off to great start. Gives up a late 2nd period TD and all of a sudden we see the old Brock Hardy going to work. Match finishes the fall and Davis goes full cry baby, angry petulant child, who makes lousy decisions. If he isn't all that, then he needs to stop acting like it. While lying on his back with his hands over his eyes, Hardy gives him a couple of taps on the chest in a "great match" sort of way and Davis gets up and shoves him, tripping Hardy to the ground. Totally classless. He needs to hand write an apology to Hardy, Nebraska, and his teammates, or maybe go on 2 year mission to Tonga. Taylor did a good job of stalling without stalling. He showed quickness and strength in his defense. Duke doesn't seem to like conventional leg attacks. The infamous ride out OT, which definitely favored Taylor. Duke is not a great top wrestler yet. MM does it again against a quality opponent, thereby keeping pace with Mendez for the Hodge Haines extra push was more a heat of the moment, like a late hit in football. He apologized and pulled off the victory with the late takedown. Great TD by Minto, caught Levi napping and got the 2nd leg before Levi could react. Rocco trying to prove he really does have offense. Probably a few new believers now. Barr dominates, but gives up a late TD to ruin his shot at TF. McDaniel just saying, "you may be better than me, but I'm not giving up". I think we have seen enough now to know Mirasola is somewhere between 10th and 20th. He has great skills, but has a size/strength deficit at 285 against a lot of guys. He can beat up almost all guys under 250, but the big guys are going to be a problem. AJ isn't one of the big guys, but his strength on top was a bit much for Cole. Overall a good showing by Nebraska. Now we lay off Hardy for a bit and get back to burning Brands at the stake.

It's Mendez or MM. Regardless of all those other candidates records, if either of those two go undefeated, they will win it. They are both wrestling like they want it. Mendez hasn't let up for one second of any match and MM has decided he's going to pin some people. The other guys with high bonus rates will likely see their bonus rates fade as the competition heats up (all the PSU guys and Davino). Plus Davino or Blaze will be eliminated from consideration in a few weeks.

The worst of many, Pontiac Fiero, first model year. Bought used and abused. Had to remove engine to change water pump. By the time I got rid of it, I was pulling and pushing with both hands to change gears. One of many poor decisions. My first car choice was '71 Pinto or '69 Mustang. I took the Pinto.

It will be up to Manning. AJ will wrestle somewhere. NIL money will probably exceed the starting pay for a nuclear engineer or whatever his major is. If Manning goes for Ziola, then no NIL money offer for year 2, and he can spend it elsewhere. AJ to Nebraska was a very late deal, which makes me think Nebraska got a discount as many teams would have been out of NIL budget. As is always the case, someone will make a big offer.

People used to throw around crazy NIL numbers when it first started. I didn't believe all the hype. Now I do. Obviously much bigger for the two revenue sports, but I wouldn't be shocked by any of the rumored numbers anymore. Quinn Ewers arrived to Texas from tOSU driving a Lambo. He probably drove his other vehicle on the actual move. All it takes is one big benefactor. As for underperforming their contract, I'll pass because injuries aren't always reported. Of course, are you only including the transfers? We don't know who got a check to stay and isn't performing.

Which brings up a question, how easily does Jax make weight? He seems crazy tall (and still strong) for 133, but he made 61kgs through the summer. There was a discussion on Flo about how it be great if they listed guys' heights. Would have been cool to compare Strickenberger and Hendriksen for their dual. Is Jax 6'?

I'm sure he does. He knew exactly what is going to do with Jax before he even showed up on campus. As for the plan for Ramirez, I'm sure that is part of the plan. Jax wrestles, Ronnie redshirts, or vice versa. Figs not working probably mean DT is on plan B. Hard to predict the future without knowing who is has trouble making weight or who can grow into the next weight, or what the ideal weights are for Raneys a year from now. Sooner or later there is one extra guy.

My God, VT could win it all if there were only 6 weight classes. Interesting to see how the OSU lineup shakes out.

Back to the original question, all indications are that he is not redshirting. Personally, I would redshirt him, unless I really thought there was a good chance of winning the team title. Give him his RS matches and have him for four more years along with the crazy good recruits there now plus the ones coming in.

I was about to post something similar to what Trumble tweeted about Jack. There are many things, both physical and mental, that can weigh you down. I admire those that can maintain the mental edge for so many years. I wasn't much of a wrestler, but my last year sucked. I spent the first half of the season feeling victorious every time I made weight. The second half of the season I didn't want to practice because every 5th time my knee hit the mat, it caused a sharp pain. I won the last dual of the season and walked away a winner . We see what happens when wrestlers get dinged up. Ragusin was fantastic 2 years ago. One loss going into B10s. Struggling this year. Everyone gave Teamer crap, but he was never 100% for Iowa. We often don't know what's going on physically or mentally until after the fact. That's why we all think it's the toughest sport in college. Maybe being married and 25 in your last year of college makes you start thinking about other things. Maybe Hardy is fine and Mendez is on his own mission, which is Hodge level stats (my theory). Who knows. I think many of the posters were too good as wrestlers I have great empathy for the 10th or 12th best guy in his weight class in the Big Ten who has to get his butt kicked every weekend. There are over 70 teams that would take him right now if they could.

I missed the stall call that gave him 17. I’m sure he did too.

I don't get it. It worked out in the end. If you already have RT, why almost cut him? Cut him. Step back, give hime the point and go for the next takedown. The hand on the head simply delayed time for the next takedown. Shades of Barr/Poznanski last year. The ride out would have given him a 14 point win. Davis spent too much time trying to turn him. If he had cut him earlier he would have had more than enough time for another TD for the TF. Haines got taken down. Rocco got taken down twice in the 3rd on Friday by Goin of Indiana. I thought Messenbrink was going to be taken down early last night. I don't think they worry about it too much.

What is the rule? Hardy is OB, but Nasir has both feet in when he gets the far ankle. By rule is it a takedown? If so, did they rule Nasir was out when he got the far ankle? Did they rule he didn't have control just by grabbing the far ankle?

Help me understand, Bailey has both feet inbounds, he has the far ankle. Why isn't this a takedown? I just want to know the rationale. Also, this is the third time I have seen Nasir Bailey choose neutral in the 3rd period while trailing 1-0 and lose 1-0. What is his rationale? Fear of losing riding time point? More time for winning takedown? I haven't seen it work, but maybe it has, but the only 3 matches I've seen him do it, he has lost.

tOSU looked really sharp mostly. Kilkeary and Davino hit high gear as soon as the whistle blew. Mendez remains in full Hodge mode. Feldman look quick and strong, perfect execution on every attack. But..... does Geog get the nod over Shumate now?

Jaxson Smith might get a medical, even though he has redshirt available.

I never liked the move, but I no longer think it is a big deal. It's a valid defensive move, but once the attackers started learning to counter the counter, it became part of the normal evolution of wrestling. What I love seeing is the guy rolling to grab a leg and getting trapped on his back before he can lock the leg. I'm always cheering for guy shooting for single or double. It's the only two moves I ever had. I wish I had known about wrestling on one knee back then.

So, when the B10 schedule came out and Manning saw he was wrestling Iowa, tOSU, and PSU in a one week period, did he immediately throw the brick? It's a tough ask for his team. I'm thinking the middle match will be the toughest because it's only 2 days after getting ready for Iowa. The only plus is that the first two are at Devaney.