Alirez has too many landmines. He won't make the finals.
Lee will wrestle to at least 5th place. My bet is he gets to the Gold match and MFFs (seed protection). He is there to steal a spot. Unless he is hurt, he is taking 2nd at worst.
Pantaleo will have the gas after his first match. Just get through that and he will be okay. It's if he loses on Day 1 that it will be a problem. If he makes the finals, I think he has enough time where he will be just fine.
Monday isn't losing to Shields.
Ringer is my (safe) pick as well. He only typically loses to stronger, more athletic guys (at 86 KG). McIntosh is the only one that fits that bill on his side of the bracket and I just don't think he is good enough to get it done.
Nate couldn't beat a one-armed Moore. He isn't beating a healthy Moore. In fact, I think there is a good chance Schultz or Cassioppi beats Nate. Nate loses matches all the time. He wins a lot, too... but he loses all the time as well.
Kerk doesn't need to beat Bradley, he just needs to place Top 5. I think it is up in the air if we see Kerk wrestle Bradley if Bradley makes the finals opposite him. It is a lose-lose for Kerk. Bradley is a big, stronk 125 KG guy. If it is anyone else across from him, I think Kerk wrestles the finals.