I'm sure many of you have heard about the football coach who never punts and always onsides kicks. For those who haven't: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1849595-high-school-coach-who-never-punts-explains-his-strategy
In MLB, there has been an emphasis on home runs and a de-emphasis on batting average because of analytics.
In basketball, there is an emphasis on 3 point shots because of analytics.
Is wrestling lagging behind the analytics revolution? 3 point takedowns have started to balance out the value of certain scoring events, but I have a hunch that there is a huge edge that is being ignored because of traditional thinking and because its risky - top wrestling. Hear me out.
What % of matches does wrestler A win when he turns wrestler B for a 4 point near fall? How likely is it that after turning someone once that you are able to turn them again? How much time do we spend on top wrestling during practice? If your partners in your room are beasts on top, will you become really good on bottom, negating the risk of being turned? What if a program spent 90% of their time mat wrestling and 10% on neutral? I think neutral is the emphasis in most rooms, it certainly was in mine. Should wrestling coaches consider choosing top every time? The other possibility is a pin, which in duals has a HUGE value. The risk is an escape in most cases, so maybe the upside is greater than the risk? In basketball you only have to shoot 30% from 3 to make high volume 3 point shooting make sense. I wonder about the rates in wrestling.
Long post, I know, so the summarize - is wrestling overlooking the high potential value of top wrestling while also under developing top wrestling skills?