Wrestleknownothing

Trump owns 59% of Truth Social's parent company.

Hutton won 3 of 4 in the brief post-war 4 year era. Back then if it was tied the ref would decide. He won one that way and lost one that way. Both were 1-1.

No one knows for sure which one was elevated. They did not release the totals that year. "Last season’s winner Spencer Lee of Iowa and Gable Steveson of Minnesota wound up in a virtual tie, with Lee winning the Fan Vote (25,712 to Steveson’s 5,202 votes), but multiple members of the formal Hodge Trophy Voting Committee voting for co-winners with both Steveson and Lee having such similar Hodge Trophy voting criteria stats."

Nebraska looks off.

The simulations produce nearly identical results to the expansion.

Because we all like to score at home, here are the probabilities summed at the team level, sorted by expected finalists:

thank you

A-FREAKIN-MEN

I have been swamped with stuff the last two days so haven't gotten into the detailed explanations as I much as I want to, but just want to say I love the stuff you are doing. It will be fun to see how this early iteration works this year.

I like it

Do you know who won the D2 title in 1986, when Haselrig was third, and whether they wrestled in the D1 tournament?

Link?

Yes, for independent observations, like 10 individual weights, to get the expected total you just add the individual probabilities. If you wanted to figure out the odds of all of them happening, you would multiple them all. If you want to get the probability of each event from 0 wins to 10 wins you need to do an algebraic expansion of an equation that takes the form (Prob of event one +(1-Prob of event one)x)(prob of event two+(1-Prob of event two)... The resulting factors in the expansion are the individual event odds.

This is going to sound crazy, but I think I will take Kasak if the match up happens.

I actually think the 1 and 2 are a hair light, but certainly within the range of historical norms. He has PSU predicted to win 2.7 titles. Seems about right to me.

Neither guy has been bonus machines at NCAA. Starocci has 11, including a year on one leg that impacted his wrestling style, while Dake had 13. No real difference here. The true outlier is Diakomihalis who had only 4 bonus points.

Here are the #10 - #16 seeds who are seeded below their Intermat rankings. I included their deviation to their coaches' rankings as well. Not every weight has someone seeded below their ranking in that range.

I added a couple of categories: career bonus % and longest win streak. And I renamed the top quartile to top 2 rank. I originally used this for all the 100%ers (not just the four-timers, so top quartile made sense for the larger group). A thing you can use to move Dake higher up on the list is that he is the only one of the seven who won his titles in the first four years after high school graduation. Sanderson took a red-shirt before freshmen year, Stieber was injured his first year, Smith took a red-shirt between junior and senior years, Diakomihalis took two years between Sophomore and Junior years, Brooks to a red-shirt before freshman year, and Starocci took a red-shirt before freshman year. Another thing in the Dake column is he had probably the most impressive win when he beat Taylor.

Agreed

You are the first.

Here is how they rank statistically. Unfortunately finding career bonus percentages is tough, but I do not think that will change the order much, if at all. If you added in things like total wins or total pinfalls, the older guys move up due to their higher usage rate.

Sanderson won 3. Ben Askren, Zain Retherford, Spencer Lee, and Gable Steveson are the only two-timers.

Nebraska +600 for second seems the value play