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Wrestleknownothing

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Everything posted by Wrestleknownothing

  1. Wrestleknownothing
    You are the first.
  2. Wrestleknownothing
    Here is how they rank statistically. Unfortunately finding career bonus percentages is tough, but I do not think that will change the order much, if at all. If you added in things like total wins or total pinfalls, the older guys move up due to their higher usage rate.
  3. Wrestleknownothing
    Sanderson won 3. Ben Askren, Zain Retherford, Spencer Lee, and Gable Steveson are the only two-timers.
  4. Wrestleknownothing
    Nebraska +600 for second seems the value play
  5. Wrestleknownothing
    No, it wasn't the four weights. I don't remember my thinking, but when I get home tonight I will look it up.
  6. Wrestleknownothing
    For me 5 is irrelevant. The question then becomes where does he rank right now? And I would put him below several other four-timers including Sanderson, Dake and Brooks, at least.
  7. Wrestleknownothing
    Mark Hall, Pat Lugo, Luke Pletcher, and Kollin Moore were all #1 seeds.
  8. Wrestleknownothing
  9. Wrestleknownothing
    Yep, but since you asked: So, 1973 was their last champion. This year with Josh Koderhandt seeded #3 at 141 he has about a 75% chance of AAing and a 7% chance of taking home the big prize.
  10. Wrestleknownothing
    No, the chances of at least one champ are 46.9% and the chances of no one in the finals are only 14.7%. That makes sense since you would need a high probability of being in the finals (85.3%) to have a even-ish chance to win a title or two. But one thing to keep in mind with all these probabilities is that any of this stuff could still happen. It is good to remember that based on their seeds the 2001 Minnesota team had a 0.8% chance of ten AA's. Yet they had 10 AA's.
  11. Wrestleknownothing
    Too kind. Mine is an applied course in how to waste time with statistics.
  12. Wrestleknownothing
    That was an all-timer
  13. Wrestleknownothing
    Based on these distributions the answer is 2.5% (9.1% x 27.7%). But that overstates it a bit as these are not independent events (any Iowa win is a denied opportunity for PSU to win, and vice versa), but I do not think the impact is huge, call it between 1.5% and 2%.
  14. Wrestleknownothing
    Thread 'Wrestlestat Tournament Simulation' https://pennstate.forums.rivals.com/threads/wrestlestat-tournament-simulation.359089/
  15. Wrestleknownothing
    If that happened it would probably be the best job Brands has ever done, as they would need to significantly outperform their seeds (not an Iowa trait under Brands), combined with the worst job Sanderaon has ever donw, as they would need to significantly underperform their seeds (not a PSU trait under Sanderson).
  16. Wrestleknownothing
    Starocci lost
  17. Wrestleknownothing
    Sammy Brooks is a classic of the genre. I also love two post match interviews from 2021. Nick Lee's "chop wood, carry water" and AJ Ferrari's "665".
  18. Wrestleknownothing
    Four seems high end to me. Based on norms 2.7 is the number. Based on PSU's norm 4.5 is the number. But this team doesn't have the same hammer element as past teams. So I am going with 3 or 4.
  19. Wrestleknownothing
    Wrestlestat thinks we are both wrong. Someone ran every match through their tool and it came up with 1 champ for PSU and 0 for Iowa. Both teams' nightmare scenario.
  20. Wrestleknownothing
    At 184 you have Parker, but he is the #14 seed. I need someone between #17 and #33.
  21. Wrestleknownothing
    I know. That Minnesota number looks a little light if you are of the school that Steveson is "next topic". This is based on where they have come from the last ten years. Results may vary.
  22. Wrestleknownothing
    You aren't even trying anymore.
  23. Wrestleknownothing
    Back in late February they were looking at 1 or 2 expected champions. With an 87% chance of one or more. But now that the seeds have come out (and they slipped relative to their rankings), they are looking at 0.6 expected with a 47% chance of one or more.
  24. Wrestleknownothing
    For me the most shocking final was the one that didn't happen. Spencer Lee against Pat Glory.
  25. Wrestleknownothing
    A ref's decision away from being a four-timer. But also a ref's decision away from being a two-timer.
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