Wrestleknownothing

Neither need to happen for PSU to run away with the title. But I would say Greg Kerkvliet is a clear favorite right now over Cohlton Schultz and Max Dean has at least a 25% chance of making the finals. And historically things only get more favorable for PSU come March.

Tougher than what? In 2021 Roman Bravo-Young and Nick Lee were the 2 seed and Carter Starocci was the 3 seed, meaning they had the "tough" semi. That turned out alright. Of their four champs that year only Aaron Brooks was the 1 seed. In 2022 the script was flipped. This time only Brooks wasn't the 1 seed. Again, it turned out alright.

As a reminder of how highly seeded wrestlers have performed by school from 2010 - 2022 (lets call it the Cael Sanderson era). Only schools that averaged 1 or more top 4 seeds per year are included. For wrestlers eliminated prior to the AA bouts I give them credit for the top end of the range that they were eliminated. For example, all four blood round losers are credited with ninth. I also have mid-point and bottom of range data, but it doesn't change anything. The bottom graph shows the total number of wrestlers with top 4 seeds.

The most likely explanation is your first one. They are published weekly so between conference finals and NCAA finals there are several matches, not just one. I will dig deeper.

That doesn't bother me. As I like to say to my team, all of my predictions are wrong, but they are right on average. What bothers me is that when RBY beat Fix BOTH of their Elos went up. That is not how Elos work. Points migrate to the winner from the loser and the magnitude is dependent on the difference between their rankings prior to the competition.

There are sooooo many complaints about Wrestlestat's Elo (and they are not necessarily unfounded), but can we show some Wrestlesat love? Holy crap, they even have detailed records for junior college wrestlers. Great job, Wrestlestat. Now about those Elos...

Yes. Based on Intermat ratings from 12/22: ~30 fewer Based on Flo ratings from 12/20: ~26 fewer Based on Wrestlestat from 12/27: ~26 fewer But I also have second place scoring fewer than last year. Depending on the rankings service I have them 12 - 16 points fewer. Another thing to keep in mind is that I am assuming PSU and everyone else will wrestle to global historical averages. It has been pointed out that PSU has been a big outlier under Cael Sanderson and staff.

I hear ya. My numbers assume they will take some losses. Across the 4 top ranked wrestlers I have them falling roughly 13 points shy of max. So you can look at that as one of four coming in sixth or seventh. Or two coming in third.

Most things are over my head and not understood.

Meh. I have PSU with a 28.9 point lead per Intermat, 37.5 per Flo and Wrestlestat. That does not assume teams wrestle to seed. It assumes teams wrestle to the historical average for the seed. However, PSU typically outperforms the field on that metric, so it is possible that their expected points lead is even larger. When Intermat updates their individual rankings I will update all those numbers.

This is great news. The Iran wrestling news thread on Indianamat is up to 37 pages in 81 days (0.46 pages per day) while this thread is at 17 pages in just 32 days (0.53 per day). With the addition of Covid we can definitely catch them. Keep up the good work.

That was an investment in my daughter. Easy money.

I remember watching it live with my wife and Villanova grad daughter. We were freaked out. The announcers were initially speculating it came out. Wild stuff. One Villanova story. My dad also graduated from Villanova. My wife and I ran into Jay Wright and his wife at breakfast once. We got talking and his wife asked me if I went to Villanova. I said, "no, but my dad, my daughter, and my money did." Jay laughed at my joke. My daughter was so jealous.

It wasn't poke out. The eyelid just got tucked under.

I only take investing advice from Ben Askren.

Wait, you took the time to correct the spelling of mullet, but not Nijenhuis?

Don't forget the Collegiate Duals. When Midlands was king, Midlands was it. Now there are four tournaments to spread the talent across. And most of the talent wrestled in New Orleans. The Collegiate Duals has really siphoned off a lot of the talent. It had the #1, #4, #5, and #10 projected scoring teams at the NCAA. None of those teams followed up with Midlands, Scuffle or Salute in a meaningful way.

While I grant you that. The point is they are lurkers, not posters. There is no way they would ever answer your question. Which leaves you with my fellow warriors and our opinions. So, your surprise surprises me.

Come on. You ask a question of an audience that has no way of knowing the answer, but then are surprised when they offer their opinions instead?

Kind of my point. We did it once, it was three years ago, it was against guys who ultimately are not representing us internationally at the senior level (though I guess that is just Gillman right now), and a whole lotta water has passed under that bridge. There is great potential, but little information.

I am very curious about this. It has been so long since Lee wrestled freestyle what would it look like today? What will it look like in a year? Will his folkstyle turning skills work as well in freestyle at the senior level? His potentials is so enormous, but there are so many open questions.

Whatever happened to Trump running for President? I think he and I have held the same number of campaign events, and hired the same number of campaign managers.

Not quite accurate. Kevin McCarthy submitted 5 Republicans to serve on the committee. Pelosi rejected 2 of the 5 (the pride of the wrestling community, Jim Jordan and Jim Banks). McCarthy then pulled the other 3, saying it was all 5 or none. The strategy was to either get Jordan and Banks on the committee to do Jordan and Banks things, or refuse to participate so that you can claim partisanship.

Which is exactly what TBar would say.

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