Wrestleknownothing

And Actual Real Live Expected All Americans by Team: For those of you who hate the decimal think of it as a rudimentary probability. So for PSU 5.6 means they have a 40% chance of 5 and a 60% chance of 6 AA's (I am simplifying a bit).

Oh, Joy. We have actual seeds. No more messing around with ranks that are....I know, I know...NOT predictions (even though they are sometimes). HEADLINE: THE GAP IS CLOSING When last we gathered to perform this exercise immediately prior to the conference tournaments PSU was a solid 31 point favorite. Now with guys like Max Dean (9th) and Aaron Brooks (3rd) seeded below their rank, PSU is coming back to the field and stands as an 18 point favorite. Still a clear favorite, but well within the bounds of volatility such that you have to give Iowa at least a puncher's chance (maybe more). Add to that PSU is not the bonus machine of years past and we could have a real barn burner of a tournament.

Speak for yourself. Judge Judy and I have issued our verdict.

So, here is what I don't get. He is the richest man in the world (at least I think he is back on top), why would you want to get into petty Twitter fights with people you laid off? Wouldn't you have people you paid to handle the crappy stuff? He can just choose not to be a petty jerk on social media. That is one of his options. Instead he makes being a billionaire seem a very sad existence. It seems a simple choice.

That one stunned me at the time. Talk about a lack of attention to detail.

The alternates come from the pool of other at large candidates.

I believe that is how it was handled with Wyatt Sheets in 2021. He was inserted as the 33 seed. I am not sure if it was the prior 33 seed that had dropped though.

But then how would Jason Nolf have demonstrated his monastic attention to detai?

Thank you for the kind offer, but no, thank you. Via DM another poster has made the same offer. As I explained to him, I have made certain choices with intent knowing there will be minor inconveniences associated with them on rare occasion. This is one of the rare occasions, and I am ok with that.

I don't have Venmo, Zelle, or any other electronic payment apps, and I am not really interested in getting one. I agree with @GreatWhiteNorth that it looks like a good time will be had by all, but I will have to live vicariously.

It has to be Haines after he knocked off the consensus #1

It would help if I wasn't a dummy. I just thought to look at this. The jumps in the discrete number of teams in 1963 and 1979 coincide with the increase in the number of places (i.e. AA's). In 1962 there were four placers per weight. In 1963 it increased to six per weight, and in 1979 it increased to the current eight per weight. The decrease from 1979 to present does correlate with the general decline in programs, which by my estimate peaked in 1975. This is probably causation, too. Those team counts are not official. They are just my best estimate based data assembled from multiple sources.

I am out. Enjoy, gents. @VakAttack, enjoy London with the family. Safe travels.

I think the genetic battle instincts must be a little rusty.

The 32 vs 33 pigtail always gets the 1 in the "first" round. (Unless they changed it this year)

Big is beautiful

#22 based on Better %

You are playing a dangerous game, my friend. Let us not speak of Alex Marinelli, lest we have to mention Christopher Weller.

@jchapman is right on both accounts. Fresno State. And RIP. Though if you are a glass half full kinda guy, take solace in the fact that they will never get worse.

Typo noticed after the 15 minute shot clock expired. So when Minnesota outperforms their seed they do it by an average of 3.9 4.4 spots

There is always next year.

The number of schools with at least one AA took a big jump when seeding went from 8 to 12 spots, and has been on a decline ever since. Sadly, the decline also coincides with the decline in the number of programs.

When my kids were little and they would complain about something it usually took the form of "I never get to ____, you always get to ____" and was usually directed at a sibling. Oh, and it was always wrong. So, I would respond with "I don't want to hear 'I never, you always' ". Some of the debates on here can take that form. It is especially the case with NCAA performance. People say some form of "my team always out performs their seed, but your team always under performs". Is that true? At the risk of ending the debate (ha, ha, ha) I present some data on how teams perform at NCAA's based on 2010 - 2022 results. This gets a bit tricky when you span 12 seed, 16 seed, and 33 seed tournaments. To deal with that: An unseeded wrestler can only perform at their seed or better than their seed in my world. Meanwhile, a seeded wrestler has all three options available to them. Not a perfect choice, but here we are, none the less. Also, I use the midpoint of the range for non-All Americans. So, a wrestler knocked out in the blood round gets credit for finishing 10.5 ( (12+9)/2 ), if they were not seeded 9 through 12. If they were seeded 9 through 12, they get credit for “At Seed”. How Often? The first set of three columns shows the % of times a team falls into each category (Better Than Seed, At Seed, or Worse Than Seed) By How Much? The second set of three columns shows the average of the degree of performance. So when Minnesota outperforms their seed they do it by an average of 3.9 spots. Yeah, But Where Did They Start? The the third set of three columns shows what the average seed was by category. The obvious conclusion is that Little Rock is the most under rated tournament team of all time. Do not open your gate for these Trojan horses. With no further ado, the top 20 by "Better" %:

How salty is Dustin Norris now knowing the Teske debacle cost him a spot?