Wrestleknownothing

I have heard it said, people don't change, they get more so. Apparently the same can be said for NCAA wrestling teams. The PSU lead grows. At the end of Thursday they stood on 101 expected points (including bonus) while Iowa was at 80, and solidly in second. While Iowa remains solidly in second, the expected scores now stand at 114 to 83. Meanwhile, Cornell looks solid in second, but Nebraska is in a dogfight with Missouri for third (but don't sleep on a surging ISU, either). On the bonus point front, Cornell did themselves some favors. If they keep it up, they will be very hard to catch for third. But where things really firmed up is on the All-American front. A whole lot of guys guaran-damn-teed their top 8 legacy. Congratulations, all.

Damn, that dude is tough.

Quincy Monday, A+ multi-tasker.

Peyton Robb is a classy kid

I grant you 30.8% seems low, but 99% is high.

This was harder than the pre-tourney stuff because it becomes a matrix/path dependent. Since I do not have a machine readable source of bracket/results (or at least not easily machine readable) there was a lot of hand work so I only did it for the top 8 teams. But I imagine almost all of the schools who had between 0.1 and 0.9, now have around 0.0

WOW, Ramos wrestles to the whistle for the win

This is how I handicap Missouri:

No PSU premium added. Your mileage may differ.

The top 8 are the top 8 for a reason. Every one of them improved their AA expectations in the first two rounds yesterday.

NEWS FLASH Math guy gets math wrong. I had an error in my denominator. I have no reasons, only excuses. And we know who those are for... Here is my revised projection based on Thursday evening results. I promise to do better, dig deeper, do fewer meetings, and more cocktails. I will stay after and do push ups, shoot free throws, and work on my multiplication tables. It will never happen again. Unless it does.

But it is that simple. Sometimes it is hard to see the forest for the trees. This is one of those times.

A+ If you start as the clear favorite, and then extend your lead, it has to be A+

So is he a false freshman? This designation is critical.

I have adjusted my projections to reflect today's results in a number of ways. My original projections were only advancement and placement points. After today's action I have included bonus points earned to date. Still no projected future bonus points. For anyone who has had one loss the probability of first or second place points has been removed from their expected points projections. For some this is a meaningful adjustment (#4 seeds Caleb Henson and Julian Ramirez). For others it does not impact their EP at all (seeds in the 20's, for example). Everyone with 2 loses has been zeroed out. Bonus Points Matter Who woulda thunk? The story of the first two rounds is Bonus Points. Everything old is new again for PSU. They have rediscovered their bonus point ways. It will be hard to catch a team that goes in with a lead, and then out-distances all of their competition on day one bonus. Team Race? What team race? I know, I know. There is still a lot of wrestling to go. But, PSU definitely extended their lead over Iowa today. Not much else has changed other than VaTech has slid a touch from 7th to 8th in my projections. The podium still looks like PSU, Iowa, Cornell, Nebraska. The pre-tournament projections are the bars. The updated projections are the dots.

B Rooks

That's Mr. Shelf, Sir to you

KOT with the Nolf tribute.

Blood round is on the back side. Fish don't swim there.

A Fish called Caleb

Thomas and Blockhus both stalling their way to OT

I think everyone's tank gets emptied after fighting off their back for 30ish seconds. He then followed it up with a 30 second sprint to get back in it, and that put a fork in him.

Johnson is gassed after that sprint

Would have liked to see Van Ness finish that