Too Much Time On My Hands

[Wrestleknownothing]

The 3-point thread got me thinking about overtime.

Though the methods for deciding tied matches have changed a lot over time*, overtime became a permanent way to decide them in 1957. While highly variable from 1957 to 2025, the percentage of overtime matches has been generally growing. During the continuous use of overtime, the percentage of overtime matches has never been higher than in this past season at 10.8%.

(The only thing that has me scratching my head is the drop off in 2016 and 2017. There were a few rule changes in 2016 that may, or may not, have led to the drop off (5 second rule, one of three calls for going OB), but it is not obvious to me that they do. If anyone has an opinion here, just shout it out.)

 

Too Much Is Never Enough

We have already discussed the individual overtime leaders, Illinois heavy John Lockhart (7-0 career OT record) for win % and Iowa 165 Ryan Morningstar (6-3) for volume, but who are the team leaders?

There is obviously a volume story here. The more years you go and the more wrestlers you send, the more OT matches you will have. So let's look at that first (minimum 75 OT matches).

• No surprise that the two most dominant teams in history, Oklahoma State and Iowa, also dominate the list of OT matches and OT wins.
• More surprising is that with such a high use rate Iowa also has the highest win rate at 61.8%.
• At the other end of the spectrum is NC State. They really need to get it done in regulation as their OT win % is an anemic 40.7%

Or Maybe It Is?

But that analysis misses a few things. Just because you win a lot of OT matches does not mean you want to go to OT. Most teams have a lower winning percentage in OT than in regulation.

• Oklahoma State REALLLLLY wants to avoid overtime. Their regulation win % is 16.4% higher than their overtime win %.
• Purdue, on the other hand, wants to lure you into the deep water where they have a significantly better chance of winning (+9.8%)
• Central Michigan has probably optimized things. They get to overtime more frequently than anyone else AND they increase their win % once they are there by 6.7%.

 

[JimmyCinnabon]

That isn't time on your hands, buddy.

[Wrestleknownothing]

3 minutes ago, JimmyCinnabon said:

That isn't time on your hands, buddy.

[NoTweats]

Great info. thanks 

[ionel]

Think what could have been if Dr. Lockhart hadn't had a better option and instead had become a head wrestling coach.  He could've instructed a whole team in how to maximize wins through OT strategy.  It would've blown Wkn's statistical mind. 

Btw great local kid who did well.  I once sat next to him when he won a bet that he couldn't eat two servings of the T-bone meal post Mizzu match prior to bus ride home.  

[Wrestleknownothing]

40 minutes ago, ionel said:

Think what could have been if Dr. Lockhart hadn't had a better option and instead had become a head wrestling coach.  He could've instructed a whole team in how to maximize wins through OT strategy.  It would've blown Wkn's statistical mind. 

Btw great local kid who did well.  I once sat next to him when he won a bet that he couldn't eat two servings of the T-bone meal post Mizzu match prior to bus ride home.  

Making an eating bet with a wrestler AFTER a match is a fool's errand

Edit: Same with swimmers

Edited Wednesday at 06:18 PM by Wrestleknownothing

[PortaJohn]

@Wrestleknownothing has any wrestler gone to overtime more than Will Lewan?  He racked them up in his Jr and Sr year

 

[Ohio Elite]

2 minutes ago, PortaJohn said:

@Wrestleknownothing has any wrestler gone to overtime more than Will Lewan?  He racked them up in his Jr and Sr year

 

Rocco Welsh gonna break the record soon enough 

[PortaJohn]

2 minutes ago, Ohio Elite said:

Rocco Welsh gonna break the record soon enough 

Rocco did outpace him with 2 more overtimes for their first year's of official competition (6-4) but Will lost out on competing at NCAA's in '20 due to covid.  Rocco picked up 3 of his OT's at NCAA's.  But it's what Lewan did his Jr and SR that was prolific.  A total of 17 OT's in those two year of competition.  Other worldly

[Phantom]

A lot cooler if was..

 

 

https://youtu.be/5XcKBmdfpWs?si=v5kJGPVuG6RYgxdR

[Wrestleknownothing]

29 minutes ago, PortaJohn said:

@Wrestleknownothing has any wrestler gone to overtime more than Will Lewan?  He racked them up in his Jr and Sr year

 

At 6 OT matches, Lewan (4-2) is tied for 9th all time.

[PortaJohn]

3 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

At 6 OT matches, Lewan (4-2) is tied for 9th all time.

I'm genuinely confused.  He's wrestled more than 6 OT matches

[Wrestleknownothing]

28 minutes ago, Ohio Elite said:

Rocco Welsh gonna break the record soon enough 

Rocco has a ways to go to catch Morningstar. At 3 Welsh is currently ranked 147th on the list.

And while 3 is a lot for one tournament, it is not the most. In 2011 Illinois heavy, John Lockhart went to OT 4 straight matches.

[Wrestleknownothing]

Just now, PortaJohn said:

I'm genuinely confused.  He's wrestled more than 6 OT matches

6 is his tournament total. Are you including regular season?

[PortaJohn]

1 minute ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

6 is his tournament total. Are you including regular season?

My bad.  Didn't realize this was a tourney only thread.  But yes, was including regular season

[Wrestleknownothing]

BTW. Sneaky second is Caleb Smith with 8 OT matches (6-2)

Another fun fact is that all the high usage rate guys are good at OT matches. Only one of the top 40 by volume has a sub-.500 record.

[Wrestleknownothing]

2 minutes ago, PortaJohn said:

My bad.  Didn't realize this was a tourney only thread.  But yes, was including regular season

No worries. Sadly I only have searchable match by match data for the tournament. And even that took a massive effort by @cowcards and @grogs84

[BruceyB]

1 hour ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

BTW. Sneaky second is Caleb Smith with 8 OT matches (6-2)

Another fun fact is that all the high usage rate guys are good at OT matches. Only one of the top 40 by volume has a sub-.500 record.

I'm not sure if you have the information readily available, but I'd be curious to know..

1. What percentage of OT matches go to rideouts

2. Which wrestlers have been to the most rideouts

3. Which wrestlers have the best records in rideouts

You have some guys that seem perfectly content to stand around for 9 minutes and let rideouts decide the match. I'm curious who is the GOAT of wrestling the most insufferable matches.

[BigRedFan]

2 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Making an eating bet with a wrestler AFTER a match is a fool's errand

Edit: Same with swimmers

You have never seen professional-level eating until you've seen the weight men (shotputters, discus throwers, hammer throwers) eat at an all-you-can eat buffet on a road trip.  We ate at an all-you-could-fit-on-a-plate cafeteria (IIRC, NC State?), and their architectural skills were incredible (pro tip:  dark meat chicken quarters are very stable bases).

[Wrestleknownothing]

34 minutes ago, BruceyB said:

I'm not sure if you have the information readily available, but I'd be curious to know..

1. What percentage of OT matches go to rideouts

2. Which wrestlers have been to the most rideouts

3. Which wrestlers have the best records in rideouts

You have some guys that seem perfectly content to stand around for 9 minutes and let rideouts decide the match. I'm curious who is the GOAT of wrestling the most insufferable matches.

Stay tuned. The data for 2004 - 2011 does not yet specify SV or TB, but it will. Unfortunately though, some brackets do not say if it was SV-1, SV-2, or later (i.e. after rideouts) so those brackets will understate how many went to the first set of rideouts.

But for 2012 - 2025 37.3% of OT matches went past SV-1

Edited Wednesday at 09:11 PM by Wrestleknownothing

[BigRedFan]

38 minutes ago, BruceyB said:

I'm not sure if you have the information readily available, but I'd be curious to know..

1. What percentage of OT matches go to rideouts

2. Which wrestlers have been to the most rideouts

3. Which wrestlers have the best records in rideouts

You have some guys that seem perfectly content to stand around for 9 minutes and let rideouts decide the match. I'm curious who is the GOAT of wrestling the most insufferable matches.

Just curious about some of the Cornell (duh) standouts.  Yianni with a 111-2 overall record, and only five OT matches (only one in NCAA tournament with McKenna).  He never went to rideouts, winning all five in SV-1.  Vito 92-9, only one OT match also won in SV-1.  On the other hand, Gabe Dean was in five SV-1 matches, and six TB-1 or TB-2 matches.

Edited Wednesday at 09:14 PM by BigRedFan

[CHROMEBIRD]

10 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

(The only thing that has me scratching my head is the drop off in 2016 and 2017. There were a few rule changes in 2016 that may, or may not, have led to the drop off (5 second rule, one of three calls for going OB), but it is not obvious to me that they do. If anyone has an opinion here, just shout it out.)

2016 might have been when back points were changed to 2NF/4NF, though idk if it had much effect on turns or matches not going into OT. Another explanation was that Nationals was held at Madison Square Garden that year and everyone was wrestling on New York time.