Underrating Jacob Cardenas?

[RedPanda]

This summer, Cornell's Jacob Cardenas, won a U23 World Silver Medal. Along the way he beat a señor World Bronze medalist. Yet Intermat has him ranked #19. He was seeded #19 last year and went 1-2 in the NCAA tournament, losing in overtime to the #4 seed (Brucki) who fell into the repechage early. Is there precedent that says Cardenas will make a big jump?

 

Edited November 2, 2022 by RedPanda
add note

[Hammerlock3]

Idk some of these age group medals can be a little goofy....he's but exactly built for folk either

[RedPanda]

2 minutes ago, Hammerlock3 said:

Idk some of these age group medals can be a little goofy....he's but exactly built for folk either

Not built for folk (I assume that's what you meant)? What's wrong with his build? 

[Hammerlock3]

6 minutes ago, Hammerlock3 said:

Idk some of these age group medals can be a little goofy....he's   but not exactly built for folk either

 

[Hammerlock3]

3 minutes ago, RedPanda said:

Not built for folk (I assume that's what you meant)? What's wrong with his build? 

i just mean his style. Not a lot of scramble, or mat wrestling.

[nhs67]

I don't see it with Cardenes.  He has been steadily improving his neutral game, but is still loads behind the top tiers at folk when it comes to the mat game.

It is what makes me think a Hidlay or a Brooks might very well go 92 KG and take the spot at WTT.  It may seem unfair, but the elite freestylers that consistently push for medals on the senior level have also consistently contended for a title while simultaneously competing in college.

[MPhillips]

1 hour ago, nhs67 said:

go 92 KG and take the spot at WTT

I keep waiting on Moore to go down. Must be too much weight.

[Hammerlock3]

41 minutes ago, MPhillips said:

I keep waiting on Moore to go down. Must be too much weight.

people used to say he was too big for 197. I would use it as an excuse to snipe at the program but there must have been something to it.

[nhs67]

51 minutes ago, MPhillips said:

I keep waiting on Moore to go down. Must be too much weight.

I expect him to.  They met at the 2021 WTT in the QF.  Moore took 2nd there and Hidlay took 3rd.

[MPhillips]

1 minute ago, nhs67 said:

I expect him to. 

I don't get why the wait? Seems like wasted time. Maybe he's too big.

[nhs67]

1 minute ago, MPhillips said:

I don't get why the wait? Seems like wasted time. Maybe he's too big.

He said something about it in an interview for the 2022 WTT, I just forget what it was.

[flyingcement]

14 minutes ago, nhs67 said:

He said something about it in an interview for the 2022 WTT, I just forget what it was.

Oh I remember what he said.  It was "maybe I'm too big"

[Hammerlock3]

If possible, I think he needs to go down if for no other reason than he's just not talented enough to medal at an olympic weight. Even with a good draw he doesn't have freakish strength like colon, or overwhelming weirdness like gross (who didn't medal either) or freaky athleticism...His trajectory makes him seem limited to me, good in high school, takes to the college grind like a champ but plateaus QUICK (this i will blame partially on coaching), I think he might be maxed out.

[nhs67]

K.Moore needs to go down because he is the instant favorite to make the team if he does.

Worlds medalists in non-Oly weights earn a bye to the semi-finals.  Can't be a Worlds  medalist unless you compete at Worlds.

I mean no disrespect to Cardenes, but if he can beat the 2022 Worlds Bronze medalist at 92 KG then we have a dozen or so others, maybe dozens, that can from 86 KG to 97 KG .

I hope I am correct in saying this:  92 KG is going yo be a US Men's Freestyle wet dream.  Everyone who not named Zahid Valencia or J'Den Cox that is not a realistic 'contender' at 86 KG or 97 KG is going to do what they need to do to get a shot at that bye for 2024 Oly-trials.

In Valencia's and Cox's minds they are the favorites not only over the WTT field, but over the incumbents as well.  Anybody who doesn't also truly believe that should head to 92 KG and I think it is going to make it the juiciest non-Oly trials we have ever seen.  The kind that makes you wish that from the QF on were Best of Three series.  Probably even the R16 matches too.

[BigRedFan]

31 minutes ago, nhs67 said:

I mean no disrespect to Cardenes, but if he can beat the 2022 Worlds Bronze medalist at 92 KG then we have a dozen or so others, maybe dozens, that can from 86 KG to 97 KG .

Looks pretty disrespectful.

[Dark Energy]

Dozens!  At least 24!  

[nhs67]

2 hours ago, BigRedFan said:

Looks pretty disrespectful.

How is it not the truth?  How high has he placed at Seniors at any weight?

It is me placing appropriate respect to other, more accomplished Seniors competitors.

[bnwtwg]

3 hours ago, nhs67 said:

K.Moore needs to go down because he is the instant favorite to make the team if he does.

Worlds medalists in non-Oly weights earn a bye to the semi-finals.  Can't be a Worlds  medalist unless you compete at Worlds.

I mean no disrespect to Cardenes, but if he can beat the 2022 Worlds Bronze medalist at 92 KG then we have a dozen or so others, maybe dozens, that can from 86 KG to 97 KG .

I hope I am correct in saying this:  92 KG is going yo be a US Men's Freestyle wet dream.  Everyone who not named Zahid Valencia or J'Den Cox that is not a realistic 'contender' at 86 KG or 97 KG is going to do what they need to do to get a shot at that bye for 2024 Oly-trials.

In Valencia's and Cox's minds they are the favorites not only over the WTT field, but over the incumbents as well.  Anybody who doesn't also truly believe that should head to 92 KG and I think it is going to make it the juiciest non-Oly trials we have ever seen.  The kind that makes you wish that from the QF on were Best of Three series.  Probably even the R16 matches too.

Do you think Zahid gets weird and attempts to bump up to 92 with the goal of getting a bye to 86 semis at OTT a year later? I don't see it working out even if he wins the spot, but it is an intriguing thought exercise if for no other reason than it is the offseason and silly ideas are best discussed at this time of year.

[nhs67]

17 minutes ago, bnwtwg said:

Do you think Zahid gets weird and attempts to bump up to 92 with the goal of getting a bye to 86 semis at OTT a year later? I don't see it working out even if he wins the spot, but it is an intriguing thought exercise if for no other reason than it is the offseason and silly ideas are best discussed at this time of year.

I don't think Zahid goes up even if he is the favorite.

He wants to beat DT to earn a bye to best of three finals for Oky-trials.

[Le duke]

25 minutes ago, bnwtwg said:

Do you think Zahid gets weird and attempts to bump up to 92 with the goal of getting a bye to 86 semis at OTT a year later? I don't see it working out even if he wins the spot, but it is an intriguing thought exercise if for no other reason than it is the offseason and silly ideas are best discussed at this time of year.

That would make sense.

6 minutes ago, nhs67 said:

I don't think Zahid goes up even if he is the favorite.

He wants to beat DT to earn a bye to best of three finals for Oky-trials.

There's a very, very small chance of that happening. His best bet would be going up to 92kg, medaling, and getting a bye to the 86kg semi-finals. Also, getting senior level experience at a world-level tournament would be good for him. 

Biggest problem Zahid has is his gas tank. Going up to 92kg and then coming back down would make that worse. DT didn't even push the pace and still teched him in match 2, though. 

Edited November 2, 2022 by Le duke

[bnwtwg]

18 minutes ago, Le duke said:

That would make sense.

There's a very, very small chance of that happening. His best bet would be going up to 92kg, medaling, and getting a bye to the 86kg semi-finals. Also, getting senior level experience at a world-level tournament would be good for him. 

Biggest problem Zahid has is his gas tank. Going up to 92kg and then coming back down would make that worse. DT didn't even push the pace and still teched him in match 2, though. 

I think if Zahid went on this quest he would not try to gain. I think, in this unlikely hypothetical, that he would pull a Dake'16 and go to WTT (and worlds if he wins the spot) at his walking weight which is probably low to mid 190s at most. He was still a 79 as late as 2019 and obviously thought that he was significantly undersized/overpowered if he did not give it a go at 92 at last year's WTT to try to take out Cox.

[Red]

Cardenas will be on the podium at year end.  I guarantee it!

[Red Blades]

Looking through the rankings, I see a number of guys that Cardenas has lost to in the past, who are not that highly ranked currently.  It's hard to say Jake should be ranked higher than any of them.  Jake has a lot of close losses, though, and if he has upped his offense even a little, he could win a lot more matches this year.  I expect the ranking will sort themselves out OK.

But as for the argument that "if he can beat the 2022 Worlds Bronze medalist at 92 KG then we have a dozen or so others, maybe dozens, that can from 86 KG to 97 KG ." ... Right - show me!

[nhs67]

1 hour ago, Red said:

Cardenas will be on the podium at year end.  I guarantee it!

Folkstyle is not Freestyle.  While he may beat a few guys that are currently ranked higher in Folkstyle in a Freestyle match, I don't think he is on the podium come NCAAs.  If he is, then he wiail have to have taken a leap specifically in Folkstyle.

1 hour ago, Red Blades said:

Looking through the rankings, I see a number of guys that Cardenas has lost to in the past, who are not that highly ranked currently.  It's hard to say Jake should be ranked higher than any of them.  Jake has a lot of close losses, though, and if he has upped his offense even a little, he could win a lot more matches this year.  I expect the ranking will sort themselves out OK.

I agree with this.

1 hour ago, Red Blades said:

But as for the argument that "if he can beat the 2022 Worlds Bronze medalist at 92 KG then we have a dozen or so others, maybe dozens, that can from 86 KG to 97 KG ." ... Right - show me!

When was the last time he wrestled seniors?  Was it the Flo RTC Cup?  Impossible to extrapolate because of time, however he has zero relevant domestic freestyle wins to say he will even be in the discussion as a favorite.

I welcome being wrong.  A better Cardenes means better USA Wrestling.

[BigRedFan]

5 hours ago, nhs67 said:

How is it not the truth?  How high has he placed at Seniors at any weight?

It is me placing appropriate respect to other, more accomplished Seniors competitors.

Oh, sure.  "Cardenas did X, therefore lots of people can do X". No disrespect there!