I would like to settle the p4p discussion for 2025 and 2026

[Truzzcat]

Going over the last two years

Jax:
Notable wins: Gross,Nashon,Davino,Cronin,Stanich,Tomasello,Deshazer,Mendoza,Raney,Lilledahl,Seidel
losses: Lilledahl,Blaze,Gillman,Vargo,Mendoza,Desanto (all of these were in 2023/2024)

Marcus:
Notable wins: Gross,Nashon,Fix,Jax,Ramos,Davino,Megaludis,Bailey,Abbasov,Ozbek,Lilledahl,Seidel
Notable losses: Gross,Palmer,Ono,Vito,Davino

Bassett:
Notable wins: Zepeda,Ashnault,Valencia
Notable losses: Zepeda,Stanich,Kolodzik,Hosokawa

Duke:
Notable wins: Webster,Robideau,Miller,Lewan,Thomas,Andonian
Notable losses: Pantaleo,Baitukaev

Lockett:
Notable wins: Sealey,Shapiro,Miller,Denny,Burton,Bouzakis
Notable losses: Berger,MM,Ali Reza

If you go over a 1 year sample I think Jax is the pick slightly edging out Blaze. However the Mendoza and Vargo losses ding him a lot over 2 years so I will be ruling him out although he may have the best trajectory with another year of high school. Going off the two year sample I think Blaze are both options however Duke does not have quite the same hit list and both do not really lose at their own age level. Blazes last age level loss was davino that he has avenged 3x's and Duke was like cadet trials in 2022 and Baitukaev who aged out of u20's this year. Considering overall quality of competition I am going Blaze and I will give Duke a slight edge over Jax for consistency but thats a push if anything honestly and I like Jax's ceiling the most out of all these guys but for the sake of rankings here we go.

Truzzcat final ranking:
1. Blaze
2. Duke
3. Jax
4. Lockett
5. Bassett

[okokzach]

What year did Jax beat Blaze?

[Truzzcat]

Just now, okokzach said:

What year did Jax beat Blaze?

super 32 2022 I believe on the backside.

[HokieDave87]

Blaze

Jax

Duke

Lockett

Bassett

 

Blaze/Jax are pretty interchangeable IMO

[boconnell]

Quote

If you go over a 1 year sample I think Jax is the pick slightly edging out Blaze.

It's fine if you want to use a 2 year window, but I'm not sure how the 1 year window is only Jax edging out Blaze.  Jax just TF'd the guy who pinned Blaze in the same tournament.  In a 1 year window it's Jax ahead of Blaze and it's not him edging him out.  

[SNL Wrestling]

11 hours ago, Truzzcat said:

super 32 2022 I believe on the backside.

Yes that is correct:

 

[BruceyB]

2 hours ago, SNL Wrestling said:

Yes that is correct:

 

We're comparing PFP rankings based on a result that happened nearly 3 years ago.. lol? They were a freshman and a sophomore at the time.

[Truzzcat]

10 hours ago, boconnell said:

It's fine if you want to use a 2 year window, but I'm not sure how the 1 year window is only Jax edging out Blaze.  Jax just TF'd the guy who pinned Blaze in the same tournament.  In a 1 year window it's Jax ahead of Blaze and it's not him edging him out.  

I would agree if Jax did not have the Mendoza loss in the last 12 months he also lost to Marcus at trials in mid April last year so just outside of that range.

[okokzach]

1 hour ago, Truzzcat said:

I would agree if Jax did not have the Mendoza loss in the last 12 months he also lost to Marcus at trials in mid April last year so just outside of that range.

Unless I'm missing one, the loss was outside the past 12 months (April '24 at the U20 US Open). Within the last 12 months Jax beat Mendoza at Fargo in July, at Who's Number One in September, and at Super 32 in October. 

[BAC]

I'm not a fan of the "1 year window of time" and "2 year window of time" stuff.  That's just a way to assure inaccurate results by self-imposed blinders.

Better to just pick a point in time, and say who's best P4P as of that time, based on what's known at that time.  As of now, you have to say Jax, since he won the bracket Blaze was in, and mowed through the best the country has to offer (except Vito).  The weekend before Seniors, I'd have said Blaze.

After next weekend, there may be a different answer, if Blaze, Duke or Bassett make deep runs that equal what Jax did.  

I'm also not a fan of looking back at losses 2 and 3 years ago, when we know the kid has made leaps and bounds since then.  If you're having a "who had the best overall high school career, 9th to 12" conversation, then sure, it's fair to trot out old loss.  But if we're talking who's best P4P, it's irrelevant. 

For example, Blaze's loss to Jax in 2022 is meaningless to me given how different they are now, and considering Blaze won the WTT challenge tournament last fall. Jax's lost to Vargo as a sophomore (who he teched a week later) is meaningless when he just teched his way through the US Open over the best in the country.  

We're living in a crazy time, where some of the best high schoolers of all time are all competing at the same time.  

Edited yesterday at 07:22 PM by BAC

[pokemonster]

6 hours ago, BAC said:

We're living in a crazy time, where some of the best high schoolers of all time are all competing at the same time.  

CP posted a youtube video where these phenoms aren't quite like the phenoms of the past... i.e. Jax, Bo, Blaze have all been getting legit senior freestyle training for years, so they're already there. Idk if I'd expect them to jump many levels from their college careers like other guys in the past have made... They're also all 19 years old regardless of their varying grades.

I might bet on PJ Duke being the top contender... He's the youngest of this bunch at 18 and I feel like he's just gonna keep getting better. 

Ladarion Lockett is probably my favorite, but I have a feeling his style is gonna result in a few more losses i.e. less likely to be the top P4P guy.

[PortaJohn]

I hope we can all agree this is an awesome P4P list and a lot to be excited for.  Team USA looking bright for the future

[okokzach]

29 minutes ago, pokemonster said:

CP posted a youtube video where these phenoms aren't quite like the phenoms of the past... i.e. Jax, Bo, Blaze have all been getting legit senior freestyle training for years, so they're already there. Idk if I'd expect them to jump many levels from their college careers like other guys in the past have made... They're also all 19 years old regardless of their varying grades.

I might bet on PJ Duke being the top contender... He's the youngest of this bunch at 18 and I feel like he's just gonna keep getting better. 

Ladarion Lockett is probably my favorite, but I have a feeling his style is gonna result in a few more losses i.e. less likely to be the top P4P guy.

Jax is 18

[pokemonster]

19 minutes ago, okokzach said:

Jax is 18

are you sure? his uww profile is where I got it https://uww.org/athletes/forrest-jaxen-patrick

[okokzach]

8 minutes ago, pokemonster said:

are you sure? his uww profile is where I got it https://uww.org/athletes/forrest-jaxen-patrick

Yeah, my understanding is UWW puts the age that they will turn in the current calendar year because that's what's relevant to UWW for age divisions. I think Jax's bday is late October 

[PortaJohn]

15 minutes ago, pokemonster said:

are you sure? his uww profile is where I got it https://uww.org/athletes/forrest-jaxen-patrick

He wouldn't be able to compete this upcoming year in PIAA if he was currently 19.  Has to at least be 18 until the end of June

Edited 20 hours ago by PortaJohn

[boconnell]

1 hour ago, pokemonster said:

CP posted a youtube video where these phenoms aren't quite like the phenoms of the past... i.e. Jax, Bo, Blaze have all been getting legit senior freestyle training for years, so they're already there. Idk if I'd expect them to jump many levels from their college careers like other guys in the past have made... They're also all 19 years old regardless of their varying grades.

I might bet on PJ Duke being the top contender... He's the youngest of this bunch at 18 and I feel like he's just gonna keep getting better. 

Ladarion Lockett is probably my favorite, but I have a feeling his style is gonna result in a few more losses i.e. less likely to be the top P4P guy.

Are the 18 year olds in college accomplishing these things?  If not than I don't think them being 18 as HS juniors is a sign that they aren't special.  

I also don't understand why you've just decided that Duke is just going to keep getting better but the other guys have already hit their ceilings.  

This whole post reads like a 50/50 mix of fact and fiction to create a narrative.

[pokemonster]

2 minutes ago, boconnell said:

Are the 18 year olds in college accomplishing these things?  If not than I don't think them being 18 as HS juniors is a sign that they aren't special.  

I also don't understand why you've just decided that Duke is just going to keep getting better but the other guys have already hit their ceilings.  

This whole post reads like a 50/50 mix of fact and fiction to create a narrative.

nobody said they aren't special, but my point was the guys who've been in RTCs full time doing sr level training probably aren't going to see a huge jump in performance heading into a college room... The guys who haven't had world class training for their entire high school career might be more likely to jump levels. Could be a dumb hypothesis, and maybe everyone on this list has been afforded that same world class training Jax has had, so it might be a mute point.

[boconnell]

1 hour ago, pokemonster said:

nobody said they aren't special, but my point was the guys who've been in RTCs full time doing sr level training probably aren't going to see a huge jump in performance heading into a college room... The guys who haven't had world class training for their entire high school career might be more likely to jump levels. Could be a dumb hypothesis, and maybe everyone on this list has been afforded that same world class training Jax has had, so it might be a mute point.

I think what you are saying makes sense.  

But these guys aren't considered great because they are doing more than other age level guys.  They are doing more than guys 5 years ahead of them.  Great college guys like Hamiti and Keckeisen didn't win after 5 years of college.  Even if Jax somehow had zero improvement ahead of him he's already doing stuff that NCAA champs 5 years older than him aren't.  So take away his HS age advantage, his training advantage, and compare him to 23+ year old men and he still crushed the field.  The same is mostly true of Blaze.  They have gone to the highest level of American wrestling and held their own or won.  They are basically world level already.  The same can't be said for any other 18/19/20 year olds in the USA, even after giving a year of college to normalize age and training.

[MPhillips]

3 hours ago, pokemonster said:

CP posted a youtube video where

"Not everything boils down to the wins, it's just what my eyes say."

[scourge165]

3 hours ago, PortaJohn said:

I hope we can all agree this is an awesome P4P list and a lot to be excited for.  Team USA looking bright for the future

I'd like to consider another entry...Dreshaun Ross. 

He's never going to have the same type of wins as it's just...not the same, there aren't the same numbers for a Jr HWT to come in and beat multiple National Champs at HWT and conversely, he's just not going to have as many elite level Wrestlers all bunched in together, but if he is all in on Wrestling, he would be the guy I'd take. I think he's going to be a more athletic Tommy Rowlands...and perhaps a bit bigger.... if he really focuses on adding good weight.

To have a HWT who could be a 4X AA and 2...maybe 3X NC, I might take that over a 157 or 141 who has marginally higher placements just because it seems easier to find guys who can get you points at those weights then at HWT. 

[BruceyB]

15 hours ago, pokemonster said:

nobody said they aren't special, but my point was the guys who've been in RTCs full time doing sr level training probably aren't going to see a huge jump in performance heading into a college room... The guys who haven't had world class training for their entire high school career might be more likely to jump levels. Could be a dumb hypothesis, and maybe everyone on this list has been afforded that same world class training Jax has had, so it might be a mute point.

I get where you're coming from, but I think it depends on the kids and their style to consider how much room for improvement there is. Most of the time, guys who mature early and win a lot of matches based on technique, strength, and positioning are the ones who lack the capability of continuing their trajectory as blue chip prospects.

For that reason, I think Jax is the top prospect of all of these guys. He wrestles like a Tasmanian devil a lot of the time, and gives up points at times because of it. Once he learns how to change his pace during matches, and cut down on the mistakes he makes when he gets over eager in positions, he could really make some jumps IMO. And that's saying something about a kid who just won the U.S. Open in a dominating fashion.