How to rank 2-4 at 149

[BruceyB]

Just now, 1032004 said:

Yup, anything can happen, last year they seeded a guy that had 2 losses to Benny Baker at EIWA’s 4 spots ahead of the 3x defending national champ

The only reason I know who Benny Baker is because of last years fiasco. Poor guy stays catching strays.

[nhs67]

1 hour ago, Dogbone said:

Parco still has Cartella and Young. Johnson just has Realbuto as far as QW left ( I also don't know how PJ would have 6 QW at 149).   Assuming both win out, Parco will have 8 and Johnson will have 7 entering conferences.

Even if QW is a tie, the coaches rank would need punish the B1G runner up for losing the #2 guy and reward someone without a top 10 win.  NCAA seeding has been bizarre before so I will admit it could happen and shouldn't be written off, but it seems unlikely to me. 

QW has nothing do do with ranking.  I thought it was those who earned their conference allocation, but I was corrected and now understand that a Quality Win is anybody in the field.

Meaning Parco's win over Echemendia doesn't count.  He will not be in the field at 149lbs for NCAAs.  So basically, if you go to Wrestlestat and take T33 wins, you'll get a fair idea.

[nhs67]

1 hour ago, 1032004 said:

I think Johnson if he wins out will almost certainly be seeded above at least the B10 3rd.  The question is probably will he be seeded 3 or 4 (may have a shot at 2?) and will any others be seeded above the B10 3rd.  I’m thinking no but not confident, which would not put all the B10 guys on the same side.

.  

 

If you look at the most recent rankings, 5 - McNeil, 6 - Johnson, 7 - DeMilio, 8 - Lamer.

If (when) some of the B1G gents lose (DeMilio included) they will drop.  The coaches aren't some super 'pristine' rankings committee and opinions are effected in losses - especially manner of losses.  If Johnson and Lamer win out, I think they pass by the B1G 3rd in coaches ranking and McNeil.  At least one of them, if not two of them (again manner of victory/loss are more greatly effected in the coaches rankings than anywhere else).

So by the time the final coaches ranking comes out, assuming current rankings are how they finish at conferences, I think we are going to see... (in the coaches ranking)

1 - Henson
2 - SVN
3 - Parco
4 - Johnson
5 - Lovett
6- Lamer
7 - McNeil

I wouldn't be surprised to see Johnson also jump Parco, or Lamer jump Lovett, either, as wins and losses do skew optics, and the coaches ranking is by human coaches.

I do think that Johnson jumping Parco absolutely will not happen, even if Parco finishes 2nd at B1Gs.  He wins the RPI battle (as of now) as well as I don't think Johnson passes him in the CR either (again optics - Johnson wins close matches, always).

[Dogbone]

40 minutes ago, nhs67 said:

QW has nothing do do with ranking.  I thought it was those who earned their conference allocation, but I was corrected and now understand that a Quality Win is anybody in the field.

Correct. I wasn't suggesting they are the same.  But who you beat and lose to does impact your ranking.  It's why 16-3 NcNeil is ranked 7 spots higher in today's coaches rankings than 16-1 Ty Whalen since he has better wins.

 

54 minutes ago, nhs67 said:

QW has nothing do do with ranking.  I thought it was those who earned their conference allocation, but I was corrected and now understand that a Quality Win is anybody in the field.

Meaning Parco's win over Echemendia doesn't count.  He will not be in the field at 149lbs for NCAAs.  So basically, if you go to Wrestlestat and take T33 wins, you'll get a fair idea.

Yep, since we won't know who will make the field yet, I was using WS top 30, which could change as guys steal spots, etc.  Parco currently has 6 wins over guys in the top 30 at 149 (not counting Echemendia) and two more on the schedule  and Johnson currently has 5 with 1 more on the schedule.  

[nhs67]

FWIW, after seeing RPI and Parco at #1, I don't know that even if he were to take 3rd that he would drop below 4/5, which is a wash either way.

[Gus]

2 hours ago, nhs67 said:

FWIW, after seeing RPI and Parco at #1, I don't know that even if he were to take 3rd that he would drop below 4/5, which is a wash either way.

Is there a reason why Henson is not in the RPI?

[1032004]

3 hours ago, nhs67 said:

If you look at the most recent rankings, 5 - McNeil, 6 - Johnson, 7 - DeMilio, 8 - Lamer.

If (when) some of the B1G gents lose (DeMilio included) they will drop.  The coaches aren't some super 'pristine' rankings committee and opinions are effected in losses - especially manner of losses.  If Johnson and Lamer win out, I think they pass by the B1G 3rd in coaches ranking and McNeil.  At least one of them, if not two of them (again manner of victory/loss are more greatly effected in the coaches rankings than anywhere else).

So by the time the final coaches ranking comes out, assuming current rankings are how they finish at conferences, I think we are going to see... (in the coaches ranking)

1 - Henson
2 - SVN
3 - Parco
4 - Johnson
5 - Lovett
6- Lamer
7 - McNeil

I wouldn't be surprised to see Johnson also jump Parco, or Lamer jump Lovett, either, as wins and losses do skew optics, and the coaches ranking is by human coaches.

I do think that Johnson jumping Parco absolutely will not happen, even if Parco finishes 2nd at B1Gs.  He wins the RPI battle (as of now) as well as I don't think Johnson passes him in the CR either (again optics - Johnson wins close matches, always).

I think you’re overthinking the rankings.  Considering most coaches just copy Flo or intermat, Flo and intermat will likely keep SVN/Parco/Lovett as 2/3/4 in whatever order if they don’t lose to anyone besides each other.

NCAA seeding criteria is a different matter of course.

[Wrestleknownothing]

22 minutes ago, Gus said:

Is there a reason why Henson is not in the RPI?

He only has 14 matches. You need 15 for RPI.

[Wrestleknownothing]

20 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

I think you’re overthinking the rankings.  Considering most coaches just copy Flo or intermat, Flo and intermat will likely keep SVN/Parco/Lovett as 2/3/4 in whatever order if they don’t lose to anyone besides each other.

NCAA seeding criteria is a different matter of course.

I am beginning to doubt that

[1032004]

10 hours ago, Gus said:

What claim would Whalen have? He does not even posses a top 20 win.

Not really a claim, but worth noting that he beat Parco (and Watters) last year while a grayshirt.

[wrestlingfan22]

1 hour ago, 1032004 said:

Not really a claim, but worth noting that he beat Parco (and Watters) last year while a grayshirt.

He beat Abas earlier tonight also

[Gus]

4 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

He only has 14 matches. You need 15 for RPI.

Ah that makes sense. 

[Gus]

21 minutes ago, wrestlingfan22 said:

He beat Abas earlier tonight also

That’ll help his case. 

1 hour ago, 1032004 said:

Not really a claim, but worth noting that he beat Parco (and Watters) last year while a grayshirt.

Yes, he had a great gray shirt year. Had the nice win over Abas tonight and that is by far his best win thus far this season. 

[1032004]

7 hours ago, wrestlingfan22 said:

He beat Abas earlier tonight also

With a buzzer beater