BruceyB Posted February 13 Posted February 13 Just now, 1032004 said: Yup, anything can happen, last year they seeded a guy that had 2 losses to Benny Baker at EIWA’s 4 spots ahead of the 3x defending national champ The only reason I know who Benny Baker is because of last years fiasco. Poor guy stays catching strays.
nhs67 Posted February 13 Posted February 13 1 hour ago, Dogbone said: Parco still has Cartella and Young. Johnson just has Realbuto as far as QW left ( I also don't know how PJ would have 6 QW at 149). Assuming both win out, Parco will have 8 and Johnson will have 7 entering conferences. Even if QW is a tie, the coaches rank would need punish the B1G runner up for losing the #2 guy and reward someone without a top 10 win. NCAA seeding has been bizarre before so I will admit it could happen and shouldn't be written off, but it seems unlikely to me. QW has nothing do do with ranking. I thought it was those who earned their conference allocation, but I was corrected and now understand that a Quality Win is anybody in the field. Meaning Parco's win over Echemendia doesn't count. He will not be in the field at 149lbs for NCAAs. So basically, if you go to Wrestlestat and take T33 wins, you'll get a fair idea. "I know actually nothing. It isn't even conjecture at this point." - me
nhs67 Posted February 13 Posted February 13 1 hour ago, 1032004 said: I think Johnson if he wins out will almost certainly be seeded above at least the B10 3rd. The question is probably will he be seeded 3 or 4 (may have a shot at 2?) and will any others be seeded above the B10 3rd. I’m thinking no but not confident, which would not put all the B10 guys on the same side. . If you look at the most recent rankings, 5 - McNeil, 6 - Johnson, 7 - DeMilio, 8 - Lamer. If (when) some of the B1G gents lose (DeMilio included) they will drop. The coaches aren't some super 'pristine' rankings committee and opinions are effected in losses - especially manner of losses. If Johnson and Lamer win out, I think they pass by the B1G 3rd in coaches ranking and McNeil. At least one of them, if not two of them (again manner of victory/loss are more greatly effected in the coaches rankings than anywhere else). So by the time the final coaches ranking comes out, assuming current rankings are how they finish at conferences, I think we are going to see... (in the coaches ranking) 1 - Henson 2 - SVN 3 - Parco 4 - Johnson 5 - Lovett 6- Lamer 7 - McNeil I wouldn't be surprised to see Johnson also jump Parco, or Lamer jump Lovett, either, as wins and losses do skew optics, and the coaches ranking is by human coaches. I do think that Johnson jumping Parco absolutely will not happen, even if Parco finishes 2nd at B1Gs. He wins the RPI battle (as of now) as well as I don't think Johnson passes him in the CR either (again optics - Johnson wins close matches, always). "I know actually nothing. It isn't even conjecture at this point." - me
Dogbone Posted February 13 Posted February 13 40 minutes ago, nhs67 said: QW has nothing do do with ranking. I thought it was those who earned their conference allocation, but I was corrected and now understand that a Quality Win is anybody in the field. Correct. I wasn't suggesting they are the same. But who you beat and lose to does impact your ranking. It's why 16-3 NcNeil is ranked 7 spots higher in today's coaches rankings than 16-1 Ty Whalen since he has better wins. 54 minutes ago, nhs67 said: QW has nothing do do with ranking. I thought it was those who earned their conference allocation, but I was corrected and now understand that a Quality Win is anybody in the field. Meaning Parco's win over Echemendia doesn't count. He will not be in the field at 149lbs for NCAAs. So basically, if you go to Wrestlestat and take T33 wins, you'll get a fair idea. Yep, since we won't know who will make the field yet, I was using WS top 30, which could change as guys steal spots, etc. Parco currently has 6 wins over guys in the top 30 at 149 (not counting Echemendia) and two more on the schedule and Johnson currently has 5 with 1 more on the schedule. 1
nhs67 Posted February 13 Posted February 13 FWIW, after seeing RPI and Parco at #1, I don't know that even if he were to take 3rd that he would drop below 4/5, which is a wash either way. "I know actually nothing. It isn't even conjecture at this point." - me
Gus Posted February 13 Posted February 13 2 hours ago, nhs67 said: FWIW, after seeing RPI and Parco at #1, I don't know that even if he were to take 3rd that he would drop below 4/5, which is a wash either way. Is there a reason why Henson is not in the RPI?
1032004 Posted February 13 Author Posted February 13 3 hours ago, nhs67 said: If you look at the most recent rankings, 5 - McNeil, 6 - Johnson, 7 - DeMilio, 8 - Lamer. If (when) some of the B1G gents lose (DeMilio included) they will drop. The coaches aren't some super 'pristine' rankings committee and opinions are effected in losses - especially manner of losses. If Johnson and Lamer win out, I think they pass by the B1G 3rd in coaches ranking and McNeil. At least one of them, if not two of them (again manner of victory/loss are more greatly effected in the coaches rankings than anywhere else). So by the time the final coaches ranking comes out, assuming current rankings are how they finish at conferences, I think we are going to see... (in the coaches ranking) 1 - Henson 2 - SVN 3 - Parco 4 - Johnson 5 - Lovett 6- Lamer 7 - McNeil I wouldn't be surprised to see Johnson also jump Parco, or Lamer jump Lovett, either, as wins and losses do skew optics, and the coaches ranking is by human coaches. I do think that Johnson jumping Parco absolutely will not happen, even if Parco finishes 2nd at B1Gs. He wins the RPI battle (as of now) as well as I don't think Johnson passes him in the CR either (again optics - Johnson wins close matches, always). I think you’re overthinking the rankings. Considering most coaches just copy Flo or intermat, Flo and intermat will likely keep SVN/Parco/Lovett as 2/3/4 in whatever order if they don’t lose to anyone besides each other. NCAA seeding criteria is a different matter of course. 1
Wrestleknownothing Posted February 13 Posted February 13 22 minutes ago, Gus said: Is there a reason why Henson is not in the RPI? He only has 14 matches. You need 15 for RPI. Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge
Wrestleknownothing Posted February 13 Posted February 13 20 minutes ago, 1032004 said: I think you’re overthinking the rankings. Considering most coaches just copy Flo or intermat, Flo and intermat will likely keep SVN/Parco/Lovett as 2/3/4 in whatever order if they don’t lose to anyone besides each other. NCAA seeding criteria is a different matter of course. I am beginning to doubt that Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge
1032004 Posted February 14 Author Posted February 14 10 hours ago, Gus said: What claim would Whalen have? He does not even posses a top 20 win. Not really a claim, but worth noting that he beat Parco (and Watters) last year while a grayshirt.
wrestlingfan22 Posted Friday at 03:04 AM Posted Friday at 03:04 AM 1 hour ago, 1032004 said: Not really a claim, but worth noting that he beat Parco (and Watters) last year while a grayshirt. He beat Abas earlier tonight also
Gus Posted Friday at 03:24 AM Posted Friday at 03:24 AM 4 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said: He only has 14 matches. You need 15 for RPI. Ah that makes sense.
Gus Posted Friday at 03:27 AM Posted Friday at 03:27 AM 21 minutes ago, wrestlingfan22 said: He beat Abas earlier tonight also That’ll help his case. 1 hour ago, 1032004 said: Not really a claim, but worth noting that he beat Parco (and Watters) last year while a grayshirt. Yes, he had a great gray shirt year. Had the nice win over Abas tonight and that is by far his best win thus far this season.
1032004 Posted Friday at 10:55 AM Author Posted Friday at 10:55 AM 7 hours ago, wrestlingfan22 said: He beat Abas earlier tonight also With a buzzer beater
nhs67 Posted Sunday at 09:52 PM Posted Sunday at 09:52 PM (edited) The only way the B1G gents aren't 2-4 at this point is IF one of them defaults for 4th or takes an outright loss. Even were Lamer to win out, I don't think he jumps any of the B1G gents. Edit: The REAL Italian Stallion, Realbuto beat Johnson today. Edited Sunday at 09:53 PM by nhs67 "I know actually nothing. It isn't even conjecture at this point." - me
nhs67 Posted Sunday at 09:54 PM Posted Sunday at 09:54 PM I suppose McNeil could beat Henson at ACCs and throw a wrench in things... "I know actually nothing. It isn't even conjecture at this point." - me
nhs67 Posted Sunday at 10:01 PM Posted Sunday at 10:01 PM Does Henson get penalized for ducking the UNC-VTech dual? Especially since it cost VTech the dual. Without McNeil's Techfall the score was 15-17 in favor of VTech. "I know actually nothing. It isn't even conjecture at this point." - me
BruceyB Posted Sunday at 10:04 PM Posted Sunday at 10:04 PM 9 minutes ago, nhs67 said: The only way the B1G gents aren't 2-4 at this point is IF one of them defaults for 4th or takes an outright loss. Even were Lamer to win out, I don't think he jumps any of the B1G gents. You don't think a 1 loss Whalen or Lamer jumps a 3 loss Lovett? I'm far too lazy to actually try to guess based on criteria and just go with what has seemed to be the trend in the past. That being said, I do think the seeds would work themselves out so that the B1G gents are separated into each of the four quadrants.
nhs67 Posted Sunday at 10:08 PM Posted Sunday at 10:08 PM (edited) 4 minutes ago, BruceyB said: You don't think a 1 loss Whalen or Lamer jumps a 3 loss Lovett? I'm far too lazy to actually try to guess based on criteria and just go with what has seemed to be the trend in the past. That being said, I do think the seeds would work themselves out so that the B1G gents are separated into each of the four quadrants. Lovett has RPI, Coaches Rank, and Quality Wins still to Lamer's Conference Title. I think Whalen has more work to do than Lamer to get it done. Whalen does 'only' have Fernandez to Lamer's Williams then Stiles at conferences, though. Edited Sunday at 10:09 PM by nhs67 "I know actually nothing. It isn't even conjecture at this point." - me
1032004 Posted Monday at 12:30 AM Author Posted Monday at 12:30 AM 2 hours ago, nhs67 said: Does Henson get penalized for ducking the UNC-VTech dual? Especially since it cost VTech the dual. Without McNeil's Techfall the score was 15-17 in favor of VTech. I assume he will likely be penalized in ACC seedings?
nhs67 Posted Monday at 01:24 AM Posted Monday at 01:24 AM 53 minutes ago, 1032004 said: I assume he will likely be penalized in ACC seedings? I doubt it. Henson beat Lovett who beat McNeil this season. "I know actually nothing. It isn't even conjecture at this point." - me
nhs67 Posted Monday at 03:07 AM Posted Monday at 03:07 AM 5 hours ago, BruceyB said: You don't think a 1 loss Whalen or Lamer jumps a 3 loss Lovett? I'm far too lazy to actually try to guess based on criteria and just go with what has seemed to be the trend in the past. That being said, I do think the seeds would work themselves out so that the B1G gents are separated into each of the four quadrants. He won't have one loss now. Lost to Penn's Wasilewski today. "I know actually nothing. It isn't even conjecture at this point." - me
BruceyB Posted Monday at 03:45 AM Posted Monday at 03:45 AM 36 minutes ago, nhs67 said: He won't have one loss now. Lost to Penn's Wasilewski today. Well, it looks like our discourse may not have been necessary at all. Jordan William's will probably win the PAC title at this point and eliminate the rest of the competitors from this discussion.
nhs67 Posted Monday at 12:52 PM Posted Monday at 12:52 PM (edited) 9 hours ago, BruceyB said: Well, it looks like our discourse may not have been necessary at all. Jordan William's will probably win the PAC title at this point and eliminate the rest of the competitors from this discussion. Lamer has beaten him 2x, including this last weekend. Edit: 3x total, 2 this season https://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/wrestler/73709/williams-jordan/70915/lamer-chance Edited Monday at 12:54 PM by nhs67 "I know actually nothing. It isn't even conjecture at this point." - me
BruceyB Posted Tuesday at 05:44 PM Posted Tuesday at 05:44 PM On 2/17/2025 at 4:52 AM, nhs67 said: Lamer has beaten him 2x, including this last weekend. Edit: 3x total, 2 this season https://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/wrestler/73709/williams-jordan/70915/lamer-chance I understand, I was just attempting to make a joke after Whalen and Paniro removed themselves from the conversation.
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