Race for the Podium - 2/4/25

[Wrestleknownothing]

Intermat's new rankings for the week just dropped. There are no real surprises at the top as we had #1 wrestle #2 this past week. The results of that dual meant there would be some separation this week. And there is.

In addition to PSU solidifying its hold on the top spot, Iowa and Oklahoma State are looking pretty locked in for second and third. With their upcoming dual at the end of the month we will get a lot more information on that front soon enough.

But the more interesting race (as it has been for years) is the race for the fourth and final podium spot.

Nebraska, Minnesota, Ohio State, Virginia Tech, and Northern Iowa all have realistic shots. Meanwhile, earlier candidates Cornell and Illinois have faded from the picture.

On the AA front, just because a wrestler is ranked in the top 8 does not mean they will finish in the top 8. When it comes to seeds (first cousin of ranks) a 9 seed and an 8 seed have very similar chances of AAing.

Of course PSU leads the pack with 8.3 expected AAs. They also improved their chances of 10 AAs to 11.75%, a season (and probably all-time) high.

[ionel]

This is Basset Day ... what are you doing?  

[Wrestleknownothing]

42 minutes ago, ionel said:

This is Basset Day ... what are you doing?  

I clearly have no idea what I am doing.

[Mr. PeanutButter]

42 minutes ago, ionel said:

This is Basset Day ... what are you doing?  

You can't bait or hound people into talking about Basset. You need to let these things play out naturally or else the over/under becomes void and you'll be penalized CBs

[666]

19 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

I clearly have no idea what I am doing.

You should run for office. 

[ionel]

44 minutes ago, Mr. PeanutButter said:

You can't bait or hound people into talking about Basset. You need to let these things play out naturally or else the over/under becomes void and you'll be penalized CBs

The lawyers are on my side ( @Idaho ) ... leave me alone!  

[Wrestleknownothing]

Forgot to include this one. The probability for 6-10 AAs for PSU over the last 6 weeks.

[CGriff]

I think Minnesota gets it. Gable will get a lot of bonus and McNelly will get some bonus. They have a lot of fringe AA guys that could help their team score

[Wrestleknownothing]

31 minutes ago, CGriff said:

I think Minnesota gets it. Gable will get a lot of bonus and McNelly will get some bonus. They have a lot of fringe AA guys that could help their team score

How do you handicap Steveson's odds? Are you in the 100% certain camp? Or do you put him somewhere below 100%?

[ILLINIWrestlingBlog]

It's all about peaking, right? Or, no? I don't know. I never peaked at anything besides ice cream and breakfast cereals. In any event, the ILLINI are striking out on a bold strategy to keep their wrestlers rested and uninjured. In the next two weeks, for example, Penn State will wrestle four duals to ILLINOIS' one. 

Caging Byrd and the Brawlnagels like that is an experiment in and of itself. How will that play against the old stats? Will it be a factor? Should the numbers be revisited after conference tournaments? I do know the team is bringing in some outside studs to work with them. It's all very mysterious, and I'm interested in seeing if the whole paradigm is exploded. 

 

On a completely unrelated but thoroughly intertwined note: If Brands is five, and the Spencer is six, then Bo is ________? 

[Wrestleknownothing]

7 hours ago, ILLINIWrestlingBlog said:

It's all about peaking, right? Or, no? I don't know. I never peaked at anything besides ice cream and breakfast cereals. In any event, the ILLINI are striking out on a bold strategy to keep their wrestlers rested and uninjured. In the next two weeks, for example, Penn State will wrestle four duals to ILLINOIS' one. 

Caging Byrd and the Brawlnagels like that is an experiment in and of itself. How will that play against the old stats? Will it be a factor? Should the numbers be revisited after conference tournaments? I do know the team is bringing in some outside studs to work with them. It's all very mysterious, and I'm interested in seeing if the whole paradigm is exploded. 

 

On a completely unrelated but thoroughly intertwined note: If Brands is five, and the Spencer is six, then Bo is ________? 

Please tell me that is a Pixies reference.

 

[CGriff]

8 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

How do you handicap Steveson's odds? Are you in the 100% certain camp? Or do you put him somewhere below 100%?

95%. I’ll need to see him vs Kerk at B1Gs first 

[Kov88]

I could see Nebraska getting 4th, I feel like they have a deep enough team with multiple AA’s but without any title contenders.

[flyingcement]

Thanks as always WKN.  It's been a really encouraging time to be aboard the UNI bandwagon.  Look at that steady incremental progress!

[MPhillips]

18 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Please tell me that is a Pixies reference.

 

Well done...

[jackwebster]

Is there any site taking bets on PSU to just win? My family is having a reunion this summer, and I need airfair. I figure I could take another mortgage on my house, wager it, and probably cover at least half.

Edited Thursday at 11:20 AM by jackwebster

[Wrestleknownothing]

10 hours ago, flyingcement said:

Thanks as always WKN.  It's been a really encouraging time to be aboard the UNI bandwagon.  Look at that steady incremental progress!

Of the current crop of teams vying for the fourth spot Northern Iowa is on the longest streak without making the podium

• Minnesota - 2nd 2014
• Nebraska - 4th 2009
• Northern Iowa - 4th 1953 (when they were Iowa Teachers)
• Ohio State - 4th 2023
• Virginia Tech - 4th 2016

I am pulling hard for Northern Iowa this, both as a lover of underdogs and as a lover of symmetry. With PSU the prohibitive favorites this year a fourth place finish for UNI would match the 1953 placements:

"For the first time in 23 years of tournament competition, the National Collegiate wrestling championship belongs to the East. Charlie Speidel's Penn State matmen, unbeaten since 1950 and three times Eastern champions,' deposed Oklahoma in the 1953 tourney at State College, Pa., March 27-28.

Virtually every. record of the tournament was shattered as the host team rolled up 21 points to 15 for runner-up Oklahoma. There were 208 matches, 127 on opening day, as entries reached an all-time high of 166. Attendance at the four sessions climbed to a new high of 15,000.

The East, which waited until 1951 to cop more than one individual title and until 1952 to gain three, walked off with five individual crowns as Cornell took two, Pittsburgh, Penn State and Lock Haven State one each.

Only one of three defending titlists-Hugh Peery, Pittsburgh 115-pounder- retained his crown as Joe Lemyre, Penn State's 167-pounder and Gene Nicks. Oklahoma A&M heavyweight, were defeated. Even the outstanding wrestler award came to the East when Frank Bettucci, Cornell 147-pounder, was accorded this distinction.

Cornell's Don Dickason, who had eliminated Joe Lemyre in the semi-final round, clinched the team title for Penn State when he won a referee's decision over Oklahoma's Frank Marks in the 167-pound' final. But it remaine~ for Hud Samson, Lion 191-pounder, to set off the celebration when he pinned his opponent in the next-to-last bout on Saturday night's card. An overflow crowd of 6,000 was on hand for the final session."

This year, Cael Sanderson will hope to become his generation's Charlie Speidel.

[BarSeries]

11 hours ago, Kov88 said:

without any title contenders.

Ridge Lovett entered the chat

[PortaJohn]

On 2/4/2025 at 11:45 AM, Mr. PeanutButter said:

You can't bait or hound people into talking about Basset. You need to let these things play out naturally or else the over/under becomes void and you'll be penalized CBs

It's all just a smokescreen to lore Hammer into taking a bet so @flyingcement can get his soul back.  It's for the greater good

Edited Thursday at 03:52 PM by PortaJohn

[Kov88]

7 hours ago, BarSeries said:

Ridge Lovett entered the chat

That’s true, my baggage