Hot take: I don’t think Steveson wins NCAA’s

[AnklePicker]

33 minutes ago, BruceyB said:

All due respect, Feldman teched Harley Andrews faster than Gable did.. So maybe today wasn't the best overall indicator of whether he's better than ever or not.

It’s called an eye test. Could care less how long it took to tech him.  I liked what I saw.  

[Hammerlock3]

8 minutes ago, AnklePicker said:

It’s called an eye test. Could care less how long it took to tech him.  I liked what I saw.  

Steveson also teched the campbell kid who made feldman look like trash...

[RawDog]

There were signs that Spencer was vulnerable.  As much as I would like to see Hendricksons blitzkrieg work on Gable I just don't see any vulnerability from Gable.

[666]

Kerkvliet has improved a fair amount since Gable last beat him. I think he might have a chance against Gable because of Gable being rusty. But I can't see Hendrickson beating Gable or Kerk. Great kid, but those guys are both a good deal better than he is on the mat. 

[1032004]

7 hours ago, RawDog said:

There were signs that Spencer was vulnerable.  As much as I would like to see Hendricksons blitzkrieg work on Gable I just don't see any vulnerability from Gable.

Not really.  The “he gets tired in the third period” stuff was mostly made up.  He was really only vulnerable to a big move, but pretty much anyone can be vulnerable to that.

[jackwebster]

8 hours ago, AnklePicker said:

Haha that’s actually a great gig for an old retired wrestling coach.

I can usually guess guys within <5 lbs. With the ladies, I get in my own head. I know what they weigh, I just don't want to offend. Then I start second guessing myself, trying to figure out how much they want everyone to think they weigh. Then, someone's pissed off.

Edited Sunday at 11:06 AM by jackwebster

[1032004]

12 minutes ago, 666 said:

Kerkvliet has improved a fair amount since Gable last beat him. I think he might have a chance against Gable because of Gable being rusty. But I can't see Hendrickson beating Gable or Kerk. Great kid, but those guys are both a good deal better than he is on the mat. 

I know it was FS, but wasn’t Hendrickson leading until very late in a match against Parris?

[666]

1 hour ago, 1032004 said:

I know it was FS, but wasn’t Hendrickson leading until very late in a match against Parris?

 I didn't see that match. I'll take your word for it. 

[1032004]

37 minutes ago, 666 said:

 I didn't see that match. I'll take your word for it. 

Granted most of Hendrickson’s points were off gut wrenches, but he did take him down and there was at least one time where it seemed like he likely could have held Parris down longer.  I think this at least shows he’s on a similar level as Parris, and that was before being able to train with David Taylor.

I guess the argument would be that Steveson has always been a level above Parris.  But I think the question is is Steveson at the same level he was at a couple years ago.

[Pinnacle]

2 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

 But I think the question is is Steveson at the same level he was at a couple years ago.

That is the question, and you don't get the answer with the way he wrestled Andrews. He could probably turn it up a notch to give you a good indication, but the matches with Kerkvliet and Hendrickson is where you find out. Gable at 80% of his old self is probably enough to win them. 

[1032004]

6 minutes ago, Pinnacle said:

That is the question, and you don't get the answer with the way he wrestled Andrews. He could probably turn it up a notch to give you a good indication, but the matches with Kerkvliet and Hendrickson is where you find out. Gable at 80% of his old self is probably enough to win them. 

Yup unfortunately he won’t see Kerk until B10’s.  Best dual test will probably be Feldman if that happens 

[bnwtwg]

And I thought my hot takes were bad.

Hendrickson is not strong enough to overcome Kerk through his superior technique. I thought he was, and I was very wrong.

Hendrickson's technique is better than Steveson's overall toolbox. But his bread and butter from feet plays right into Steveson's superior bread and butter. He is not able to overpower Steveson when riding him and therefore won't get the stick which would be his leveling factor.

Steveson lets Kerk do the Kerk stall every time they wrestle. He's superior in every facet from match prep to in-match intelligence to technique, might not be stronger anymore but certainly strong enough to weather anything Kerk can cobble together one move at a time. I'll take the former Olympic gold medalist over the guy who couldn't get past present-day domestic gatekeeper Gwiz at OTTs last year. And Gwiz didn't get past Zillmer who got handily beat by Parris, and we all know what happened last time Gable came off the street to wrestle Parris.

So sure I guess there is a chance if Gable tears something. But I wouldn't root for that chance.

[PortaJohn]

@1032004 had to check the title twice to make sure this wasn't a throwaway gothca Stevenson thread...Would be a monumental upset but have to offer more than just "Spencer Lee Vibes".  At least with Spencer we knew he was battling through an injury and he had some close calls that season with big moves.  We had concrete evidence that year showing it was plausible.  

[Hammerlock3]

1 minute ago, PortaJohn said:

@1032004 had to check the title twice to make sure this wasn't a throwaway gothca Stevenson thread...Would be a monumental upset but have to offer more than just "Spencer Lee Vibes".  At least with Spencer we knew he was battling through an injury and he had some close calls that season with big moves.  We had concrete evidence that year showing it was plausible.  

Spenser had also shown what i was roasted for describing as lapses in toughness, steveson hasn't shown any vulnerability in years.

[Hammerlock3]

I would like to congratulate @1032004 on an authentic hot take....

[jammen]

Steveson weighed in at 274 yesterday.  The extra weight didn't seem to slow him down.

[bnwtwg]

3 minutes ago, Hammerlock3 said:

Spenser had also shown what i was roasted for describing as lapses in toughness, steveson hasn't shown any vulnerability in years.

Steveson is vulnerable to the following:

1) Trying to be flashy with a double unders inside trip

2) His coach weighing the current match and not challenging for 4 amplitude when the Olympic gold medal match is well under control 

3) gut wrenches. Hendrickson could possibly execute but he has to find a way to be on top in a freestyle match. Not easy considering their last freestyle results.

[PortaJohn]

6 minutes ago, Hammerlock3 said:

Spenser had also shown what i was roasted for describing as lapses in toughness, steveson hasn't shown any vulnerability in years.

I think that had more to do  with questioning his toughness rather than stating the wear and tear from his injuries was causing a huge drop in productivity later in his matches

[Hammerlock3]

Just now, PortaJohn said:

I think that had more to do  with questioning his toughness rather than stating the wear and tear from his injuries was causing a huge drop in productivity later in his matches

I think you would find significant resistance to any attempt to differentiate the two issues. 

[peanut]

I have zero insight into the likelihood of Steveson being beaten this year -- but it's not often that a former Olympic champ is competing in NCAA wrestling. Aside from John Smith, I'm not sure who else there's been.

[PortaJohn]

14 minutes ago, Hammerlock3 said:

I think you would find significant resistance to any attempt to differentiate the two issues. 

Let's just hope @1032004 offers a more in-depth breakdown on how this happens.  If he nails it he'll be a legend.  Even if it gets close to an upset then much respect.   Can't wrap my head around a plausible scenario at this point

Edited Sunday at 05:41 PM by PortaJohn

[PortaJohn]

6 minutes ago, peanut said:

I have zero insight into the likelihood of Steveson being beaten this year -- but it's not often that a former Olympic champ is competing in NCAA wrestling. Aside from John Smith, I'm not sure who else there's been.

Snyder not too long ago.  But, it's not the norm...Also, I was in diapers at the time but I thought Smith won his first olympic gold after his senior year season

Edited Sunday at 05:38 PM by PortaJohn

[Hammerlock3]

5 minutes ago, PortaJohn said:

Snyder not too long ago.  But, it's not the norm...Also, I was in diapers at the time but I thought Smith won his first olympic gold after his senior year season

you are correct, smith was a returning world champ.

[Hammerlock3]

7 minutes ago, PortaJohn said:

Let's just hope @1032004 offers a more in-depth breakdown on how this is happens.  If he nails it he'll be a legend.  Even if it gets close to an upset then much respect.   Can't wrap my head around a plausible scenario at this point

The best thing I can think of is that it would fit a possible narrative. "Complacent super talent reluctantly returns to college wrestling for a paycheck". Not saying I think thats the truthiest truth but if he turned in a lackluster performance and took a loss it would fit said narrative.

[PortaJohn]

3 minutes ago, Hammerlock3 said:

The best thing I can think of is that it would fit a possible narrative. "Complacent super talent reluctantly returns to college wrestling for a paycheck". Not saying I think thats the truthiest truth but if he turned in a lackluster performance and took a loss it would fit said narrative.

Even though it seems to me that wrestling is Gable's back up plan to his other back up plan he's still uber competitive.  Maybe a violent flu with a 103 fever Gable gets taken down?