Will Penn State have 10 AAs?

[Jimmy Cinnabon]

Looking at current rankings all except Davis would finish top 8. I think Lilledahl finishes top 4 and have all other Penn State guys finishing in the top 5. 
 

Davis is certainly capable of an AA finish if he gets hot though. 

[BarSeries]

Yes

[ionel]

... maybe 11

[Bulldog]

Is Minnesota the only team to do this?

[Wrestleknownothing]

Wrestlestat = 0.5% chance

Flo = 1.3%

Intermat = 1.9%

Using 12/16 and 12/17 rankings

[Wrestleknownothing]

1 minute ago, Bulldog said:

Is Minnesota the only team to do this?

yes

[Wrestleknownothing]

Using highest seed per wrestler across the three services = 4.8%.

And if Lilledahl moves into the top 8 = 10.9%

[okokzach]

It wouldn't be a huge surprise as they have 7 locks imo. My order of most to least likely to AA:

1. Starocci (184)
2. Kerkvliet (285)
3. Mesenbrink (165)
4. Haines (174)
5. Van Ness (149)
6. Bartlett (141)
7. Kasak (157)
8. Barr (197)
9. Lilledahl (125)
10. Davis (133)

[RawDog]

I think we need to pump the brakes on Lilledahl. He needed a late td to beat the #24 ranked wrestler.

[flyingcement]

125: Lilledahl (extremely high pedigree, but not yet fully tested in NCAA D1 folkstyle

133: Davis was hot to start last year but ended up not placing and that was down at 125 where he had more of an advantage

 

All other starters should be expected to AA, and you wouldn't be crazy for including either the the lightweights

[BAC]

I think the over/under as of today is 8.5.

Equal chance that they have 9 or 10 as that they have 8 or fewer, IMO.

 

[ionel]

1 hour ago, okokzach said:

It wouldn't be a huge surprise as they have 7 locks imo. My order of most to least likely to AA:

1. Starocci (184)
2. Kerkvliet (285)
3. Mesenbrink (165)
4. Haines (174)
5. Van Ness (149)
6. Bartlett (141)
7. Kasak (157)
8. Barr (197)
9. Lilledahl (125)
10. Davis (133)

When was the last time they AA'd at 125?  Yes Davis can easily not make it.  Barr could hit the two wrong guys.  I'd say 7. 

[Wrestleknownothing]

8 minutes ago, BAC said:

I think the over/under as of today is 8.5.

Equal chance that they have 9 or 10 as that they have 8 or fewer, IMO.

 

Until and unless Lilledahal, and at least one of Davis and Barr, improve their rank/seed, I put it at 7.5.

[ionel]

1 minute ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Until and unless Lilledahal, and at least one of Davis and Barr, improve their rank/seed, I put it at 7.5.

I could debate either side of that 7.5 ... looks good. 

[Wrestleknownothing]

7 minutes ago, ionel said:

When was the last time they AA'd at 125?  Yes Davis can easily not make it.  Barr could hit the two wrong guys.  I'd say 7. 

 Nico Megaludis, 2016

[ionel]

Just now, Wrestleknownothing said:

 Nico Megaludis, 2016

Almost a decade ago, doesn't seem like yesterday.  

[flyingcement]

3 minutes ago, ionel said:

Almost a decade ago, doesn't seem like yesterday.  

To me it does.  I also asked Rich and he agrees

[1032004]

16 minutes ago, ionel said:

When was the last time they AA'd at 125?  Yes Davis can easily not make it.  Barr could hit the two wrong guys.  I'd say 7. 

Barring injury they’re definitely getting at least 8 IMO.  They have 7 locks as @okokzach mentions, and surely at least one of the other 3 AA’s

[ionel]

1 minute ago, 1032004 said:

Barring injury they’re definitely getting at least 8 IMO.  They have 7 locks as @okokzach mentions, and surely at least one of the other 3 AA’s

There is no such thing (this early) as "a lock" and don't call me Shirely! 

[BAC]

38 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Until and unless Lilledahal, and at least one of Davis and Barr, improve their rank/seed, I put it at 7.5.

If you go by current rankings, I guess.  But if that were the line, I think the vast majority of bettors would take the over.  I think most believe that all three of the guys you mentioned are better than their current ranking, but just don't have the track record yet at that weight class to earn the higher ranking.  If there aren't at least 9 PSU wrestlers ranked in the top 8 come NCAAs (barring injury), I'd be shocked. 

Even at an 8.5 over/under I'd take the over, but I think 8 and 9 are the two most likely numbers of PSU AAs.  7 AAs would be a pretty significant underperformance in my eyes.

[BloodRound]

someone will slip up.

[Wrestleknownothing]

21 minutes ago, BloodRound said:

someone will slip up.

Seems likely.

Last year with four #1 seeds, two #2 seeds, a #6 seed, a #7 seed, an administratively under-seeded #9 seed, and a #10 seed, they still only managed 8 AA's. 

It turns out 10 AA's is really hard.

[1032004]

9 hours ago, ionel said:

There is no such thing (this early) as "a lock" and don't call me Shirely! 

Very high chance those 7 will all be top 3 seeds.  Taking a quick look at last year’s brackets, of the 30 1-3 seeds, I only see 4 that did not AA (Braeden Davis, Jackson Arrington, Julian Ramirez, and Yonger Bastida).  So 87% of 1-3 seeds AA’d.   There’s a small chance one of the 7 doesn’t AA, but IMO that chance is lower than 2 of the other 3 AA’ing

[Wrestleknownothing]

19 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

Very high chance those 7 will all be top 3 seeds.  Taking a quick look at last year’s brackets, of the 30 1-3 seeds, I only see 4 that did not AA (Braeden Davis, Jackson Arrington, Julian Ramirez, and Yonger Bastida).  So 87% of 1-3 seeds AA’d.   There’s a small chance one of the 7 doesn’t AA, but IMO that chance is lower than 2 of the other 3 AA’ing

Using 87% there is still a 62% chance that at least one does not AA.

In the 33 seed era (last 5 years) 1-3 seeds AA'd 92.7% of the time. Using that you still get a 41% at least one does not AA.

Edited Thursday at 03:22 PM by Wrestleknownothing

[ionel]

18 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

Very high chance those 7 will all be top 3 seeds.  Taking a quick look at last year’s brackets, of the 30 1-3 seeds, I only see 4 that did not AA (Braeden Davis, Jackson Arrington, Julian Ramirez, and Yonger Bastida).  So 87% of 1-3 seeds AA’d.   There’s a small chance one of the 7 doesn’t AA, but IMO that chance is lower than 2 of the other 3 AA’ing

How many 1-4 rank in December got injured and didn't make AA in March?