It's time: Predict the 2024 125 pound NCAA champ

[jmoney]

I created my own rankings using these metrics today. I am curious to see how well this predicts All Americans.

30% weight on GRIT (performance in top level matches)

20% weight on Best Win Quality against ranked guys

15% weight on Recent Performances last month

13% weight on Hammer rating (how much you destroy opposition measured taking into account strength of your opposition)

12% weight on Consistency (how your win% pairs up with your strength of schedule)

10% weight on Strength of Schedule

 

This gives me 3 tiers of guys

A TIER

1 Ramos 387, 2 Ayala 385, 3 Spratley 357, 4 Stanich 345

B TIER

5 Flynn 311, 6 Davis 297, 7 Smith 285

C TIER

8 DeAugustino 267, 9 Poulin 260, 10 Provo252, 11(TIE)  Jordan/Surtin 250, 13 Kaylor 244, 14 Noto 242, 15 Volk 240

D TIER

16 McKee 206, 17 Barnett 202, 18 Camacho 195

[ionel]

24 minutes ago, jmoney said:

I created my own rankings using these metrics today. I am curious to see how well this predicts All Americans.

30% weight on GRIT (performance in top level matches)

20% weight on Best Win Quality against ranked guys

15% weight on Recent Performances last month

13% weight on Hammer rating (how much you destroy opposition measured taking into account strength of your opposition)

12% weight on Consistency (how your win% pairs up with your strength of schedule)

10% weight on Strength of Schedule

 

This gives me 3 tiers of guys

A TIER

1 Ramos 387, 2 Ayala 385, 3 Spratley 357, 4 Stanich 345

B TIER

5 Flynn 311, 6 Davis 297, 7 Smith 285

C TIER

8 DeAugustino 267, 9 Poulin 260, 10 Provo252, 11(TIE)  Jordan/Surtin 250, 13 Kaylor 244, 14 Noto 242, 15 Volk 240

D TIER

16 McKee 206, 17 Barnett 202, 18 Camacho 195

Nice metrics. 

[1032004]

What’s the over/under on AA’s from the Big 10?  They have 8 title threats IMO (Ramos, Ayala, Davis, McKee, Barnett, DeAugustino, Smith, Peterson - yes I know McCrone beat Peterson but I don’t think he’s a title threat), but I can’t imagine they get more than like 5 AA’s in total.

[jmoney]

I think the Over/Under Line has to be around 4.75 to 5.25 . If Barnett, McKee, Smith, or DeAugustino show more consistency it's definitely trending towards 5.25

[flyingcement]

1 minute ago, jmoney said:

I think the Over/Under Line has to be around 4.75 to 5.25 . If Barnett, McKee, Smith, or DeAugustino show more consistency it's definitely trending towards 5.25

You may be right - and I would bet the under in that case.  Stanich, Flynn, Spratley, Volk, Provo, Surtin, Camacho, Noto, Poulin, Kaylor are ten guys outside the Big Ten with a solid chance of AAing.  And others like Strickenberger, Ungar, Jordan, Molton, Terukina, who are outside shots.  

[jmoney]

5 minutes ago, flyingcement said:

You may be right - and I would bet the under in that case.  Stanich, Flynn, Spratley, Volk, Provo, Surtin, Camacho, Noto, Poulin, Kaylor are ten guys outside the Big Ten with a solid chance of AAing.  And others like Strickenberger, Ungar, Jordan, Molton, Terukina, who are outside shots.  

If the best versions of Noto, Kaylor, Surtin, Camacho, Smith, McKee, Barnett, DeAugustino show up at NCAA, it's really gonna shake thing up in the consolation brackets!

[ionel]

What are the odds that DeAugustino shaves before NCAA?

[AgaveMaria]

No matter who wins it won't be Iowa. They are set up big time for the NCAA Tank job.

[flyingcement]

5 hours ago, ionel said:

Nice metrics. 

I agree. I actually haven't spent much time thinking about an overall criteria like that.  My rankings have been based on matches this year only and does not take into account momentum.  It's only meant to be an input into an ultimate equation like @jmoney has laid out.  I think it's a fun philosophical exercise to consider what that equation should look like 

Edited February 18 by flyingcement

[ionel]

29 minutes ago, flyingcement said:

I agree. I actually haven't spent much time thinking about an overall criteria like that.  My rankings have been based on matches this year only and does not take into account momentum.  It's only meant to be an input into an ultimate equation like @jmoney has laid out.  I think it's a fun philosophical exercise to consider what that equation should look like 

Its the type of metrics I'd expect or like to see wrestlstat use. 

But maybe he should save room for say

5% odd ball considerations

  do you own a zoo?

  have you recently rolled a car ?

  etc.

Edited February 18 by ionel

[jmoney]

20 minutes ago, flyingcement said:

I agree. I actually haven't spent much time thinking about an overall criteria like that.  My rankings have been based on matches this year only and does not take into account momentum.  It's only meant to be an input into an ultimate equation like @jmoney has laid out.  I think it's a fun philosophical exercise to consider what that equation should look like 

Thanks, yeah you motivated me to create a ranking because I have found the Stanich/Camacho/DeAugustino/Davis/Surtin rankings really off all season long. I feel like this weight has had the most volatility all season. I think maybe 197 will be unpredictable again too. 

[1032004]

6 hours ago, jmoney said:

I created my own rankings using these metrics today. I am curious to see how well this predicts All Americans.

30% weight on GRIT (performance in top level matches)

20% weight on Best Win Quality against ranked guys

15% weight on Recent Performances last month

13% weight on Hammer rating (how much you destroy opposition measured taking into account strength of your opposition)

12% weight on Consistency (how your win% pairs up with your strength of schedule)

10% weight on Strength of Schedule

 

This gives me 3 tiers of guys

A TIER

1 Ramos 387, 2 Ayala 385, 3 Spratley 357, 4 Stanich 345

B TIER

5 Flynn 311, 6 Davis 297, 7 Smith 285

C TIER

8 DeAugustino 267, 9 Poulin 260, 10 Provo252, 11(TIE)  Jordan/Surtin 250, 13 Kaylor 244, 14 Noto 242, 15 Volk 240

D TIER

16 McKee 206, 17 Barnett 202, 18 Camacho 195

McKee and Barnett seem way low here.

Barnett’s only losses are to McKee, Stanich, Ramos and Terukina.  Wins over Flynn and Smith.

McKee’s losses are to Ramos, Ayala x2, Peterson, and Jordan.  Wins over Barnett and Smith.

If I’m not mistaken they are the only 2x AA’s at the weight.  I think they’re a good bet for the podium and possibly winning it all.

[lu_alum]

I created my own rankings using these metrics today. I am curious to see how well this predicts All Americans.
30% weight on GRIT (performance in top level matches)
20% weight on Best Win Quality against ranked guys
15% weight on Recent Performances last month
13% weight on Hammer rating (how much you destroy opposition measured taking into account strength of your opposition)
12% weight on Consistency (how your win% pairs up with your strength of schedule)
10% weight on Strength of Schedule
 
This gives me 3 tiers of guys
A TIER
1 Ramos 387, 2 Ayala 385, 3 Spratley 357, 4 Stanich 345
B TIER
5 Flynn 311, 6 Davis 297, 7 Smith 285
C TIER
8 DeAugustino 267, 9 Poulin 260, 10 Provo252, 11(TIE)  Jordan/Surtin 250, 13 Kaylor 244, 14 Noto 242, 15 Volk 240
D TIER
16 McKee 206, 17 Barnett 202, 18 Camacho 195

Are you only considering D1 bouts? Wondering if you are including Stanich’s 11-4 win over returning D3 champ Joziah Fry, which is Fry’s only loss in his past 62 bouts?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[flyingcement]

3 hours ago, lu_alum said:

Are you only considering D1 bouts? Wondering if you are including Stanich’s 11-4 win over returning D3 champ Joziah Fry, which is Fry’s only loss in his past 62 bouts?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Even though you didn't ask me - I'll tell you what I've done in those situations.

Wins against: high schoolers, other college divisions, backups, and redshirts - do not count at all for anything

Losses against all of those same individuals count against them as much as they possibly could.  

[flyingcement]

FC Rank	Wrestler	School	Conference	InterMat	FloSports	WIN	WrestleStat	Net Media Rank
1	Eric Barnett	Wisconsin	Big Ten	3	3	7	2	2
2	Matt Ramos	Purdue	Big Ten	1	1	1	1	1
3	Nico Provo	Stanford	PAC 12	16	19	16	21	18
4	Jore Volk	Wyoming	Big 12	9	14	15	15	12
5	Troy Spratley	Oklahoma State	Big 12	10	7	6	8	6
6	Cooper Flynn	Virginia Tech	ACC	4	6	3	10	5
7	Drake Ayala	Iowa	Big Ten	5	4	2	5	3
8	Noah Surtin	Missouri	Big 12	8	8	9	9	7
9	Caleb Smith	Nebraska	Big Ten	12	9	10	12	9
10	Tanner Jordan	South Dakota State	Big 12	15	13	13	22	16
11	Braeden Davis	Penn State	Big Ten	6	5	5	6	4
12	Michael DeAugustino	Northwestern	Big Ten	14	10	11	11	11
13	Brett Ungar	Cornell	EIWA	13	16	17	20	17
14	Luke Stanich	Lehigh	EIWA	2	2	51	3	14
15	Brendan McCrone	Ohio State	Big Ten	22	17	51	17	22
16	Patrick McKee	Minnesota	Big Ten	11	15	12	7	10
17	Anthony Molton	Campbell	SoCon	23	30	51	14	23
18	Jakob Camacho	North Carolina State	ACC	24	20	18	16	19
19	Anthony Noto	Lock Haven	MAC	21	21	8	4	13
20	Jack Maida	American	EIWA	29	31	51	26	27
21	Jett Strickenberger	West Virginia	Big 12	57	22	51	28	31
22	Stevo Poulin	Northern Colorado	Big 12	7	12	4	13	8
23	Dean Peterson	Rutgers	Big Ten	19	18	19	23	20
24	Brandon Kaylor	Oregon State	PAC 12	17	11	14	18	15
25	Blake West	Northern Illinois	MAC	33	57	51	36	33
26	Trever Anderson	Northern Iowa	Big 12	26	23	51	19	24
27	Ethan Berginc	Army	EIWA	32	32	51	30	29
28	Brayden Palmer	Chattanooga	SoCon	25	57	51	25	32
29	Spencer Moore	North Carolina	ACC	30	27	51	38	30
30	Kysen Terukina	Iowa State	Big 12	27	24	51	31	26
31	Dominic Mendez	Cal Poly	PAC 12	31	57	51	40	34
32	Drew West	Gardner-Webb	SoCon	57	57	51	42	43
33	Diego Sotelo	Harvard	EIWA	20	26	51	24	25
34	Sean Spidle	Central Michigan	MAC	57	57	51	47	47
35	Eli Griffin	California Baptist	Big 12	28	28	51	34	28
36	Jeremiah Reno	Little Rock	PAC 12	57	57	51	41	42
37	Max Gallagher	Pennsylvania	EIWA	57	57	51	27	37
38	Conrad Hendriksen	Oklahoma	Big 12	57	33	51	39	35
39	Jake Ice	Sacred Heart	EIWA	57	57	51	60	60
40	Kyle Montaperto	Virginia	ACC	57	57	51	51	51
41	Tucker Owens	Air Force	Big 12	57	57	51	44	45
42	Justin Cardani	Illinois	Big Ten	57	57	51	52	52
43	Tristan Lujan	Michigan State	Big Ten	57	57	51	43	44
44	Joey Fischer	Clarion	MAC	57	57	51	37	41
45	Richie Figueroa	Arizona State	PAC 12	18	25	20	29	21
46	Michael Joyce	Brown	EIWA	57	57	51	56	56
47	Ryan Henningson	North Dakota State	Big 12	57	57	51	65	65
48	Kade Davidheiser	Bucknell	EIWA	57	57	51	77	77
49	Nick Babin	Columbia	EIWA	57	57	51	35	40
50	Tyler Klinsky	Rider	MAC	57	57	51	33	39
51	Yusief Lillie	Utah Valley	Big 12	57	57	51	66	66
52	Benjamin Aranda	Cleveland State	MAC	57	57	51	57	57
53	Chad Bellis	Appalachian State	SoCon	57	57	51	32	38
54	Richard Castro-Sandoval	Cal State Bakersfield	PAC 12	57	57	51	49	49
55	Drew Heethuis	Princeton	EIWA	57	57	51	48	48
56	Colton Camacho	Pittsburgh	ACC	57	29	51	46	36
57	Davian Guanajuato	Southern Illinois Edwardsville	MAC	57	57	51	59	59
58	Desmond Pleasant	Drexel	EIWA	57	57	51	54	54
59	Tommy Capul	Maryland	Big Ten	57	57	51	76	76
60	Damion Ryan	Bellarmine	MAC	57	57	51	71	71
61	Logan Agin	Duke	ACC	57	57	51	45	46
62	JB Dragovich	George Mason	MAC	57	57	51	63	63
63	Trenton Dominguez	Presbyterian	SoCon	57	57	51	75	75
64	Blaine Frazier	Indiana	Big Ten	57	57	51	50	50
65	Massey Odiotti	Northwestern	Big Ten	57	57	51	73	73
66	Robbie Sagaris	Long Island	EIWA	57	57	51	55	55
67	Dylan Acevedo-Switzer	Hofstra	EIWA	57	57	51	62	62
68	Carson Wagner	Binghamton	EIWA	57	57	51	53	53
69	Dayton DelViscio	Navy	EIWA	57	57	51	64	64
70	Malik Hardy	Citadel	SoCon	57	57	51	58	58
71	Eric Howe	Franklin & Marshall	EIWA	57	57	51	70	70
72	Enis Ljikovic	Davidson	SoCon	57	57	51	79	79
73	Max Elton	Buffalo	MAC	57	57	51	61	61
74	Bronson Garber	Bloomsburg	MAC	57	57	51	68	68
75	Caleb Edwards	Edinboro	MAC	57	57	51	72	72
76	Adan Benavidez	Kent State	MAC	57	57	51	69	69
77	Tony Burke	VMI	SoCon	57	57	51	78	78
78	Ryan Meek	Ohio	MAC	57	57	51	74	74
79	Julian Dawson	Morgan State	EIWA	57	57	51	67	67
80	Austin Kegley	Lindenwood	MAC	57	57	51	80	80
81	Daniel Graham	Queens	SoCon	57	57	51	81	81

[MPhillips]

11 hours ago, ionel said:

What are the odds that DeAugustino shaves before NCAA?

Probably better than McCrone shaving...

[1032004]

Stanich is officially out of redshirt now correct?

[bnwtwg]

13 hours ago, lu_alum said:

Are you only considering D1 bouts? Wondering if you are including Stanich’s 11-4 win over returning D3 champ Joziah Fry, which is Fry’s only loss in his past 62 bouts?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Normally I would chuckle and laugh you off, but honestly this year is as likely as any that the D3 champ could also win the D1 bracket. 125 is a mess and conference schedules are only giving an illusion of order rather than the reality of chaos.

[lu_alum]

3 hours ago, 1032004 said:

Stanich is officially out of redshirt now correct?

Not yet.  If he goes against ASU next week, he's officially out of RS.

Edited February 18 by lu_alum

[lu_alum]

10 hours ago, flyingcement said:

Even though you didn't ask me - I'll tell you what I've done in those situations.

Wins against: high schoolers, other college divisions, backups, and redshirts - do not count at all for anything

Losses against all of those same individuals count against them as much as they possibly could.  

That explains why you've dropped Stanich so much for the loss to Jax Forrest.

[1032004]

23 minutes ago, lu_alum said:

Not yet.  If he goes against ASU next week, he's officially out of RS.

Ah you are correct, thanks

 

[jmoney]

15 hours ago, 1032004 said:

McKee and Barnett seem way low here.

Barnett’s only losses are to McKee, Stanich, Ramos and Terukina.  Wins over Flynn and Smith.

McKee’s losses are to Ramos, Ayala x2, Peterson, and Jordan.  Wins over Barnett and Smith.

If I’m not mistaken they are the only 2x AA’s at the weight.  I think they’re a good bet for the podium and possibly winning it all.

Barnett and McKee just haven’t wrestled well in tough matches this season. They do have some nice peak wins I gave them credit for. 

[jmoney]

15 hours ago, lu_alum said:

Are you only considering D1 bouts? Wondering if you are including Stanich’s 11-4 win over returning D3 champ Joziah Fry, which is Fry’s only loss in his past 62 bouts?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

I consider any outcome and even gave Davis a loss for that obvious L he took to Ohio State. That said, after seeing multiple top ranked D2-3 guys get regularly teched by D1 mid tier guys I don’t know which D2/3 guys are truly special to be honest. 

[FanOfPurdueWrestling]

23 hours ago, flyingcement said:

You may be right - and I would bet the under in that case.  Stanich, Flynn, Spratley, Volk, Provo, Surtin, Camacho, Noto, Poulin, Kaylor are ten guys outside the Big Ten with a solid chance of AAing.  And others like Strickenberger, Ungar, Jordan, Molton, Terukina, who are outside shots.  

Damn I love 125

[FanOfPurdueWrestling]

3 hours ago, bnwtwg said:

Normally I would chuckle and laugh you off, but honestly this year is as likely as any that the D3 champ could also win the D1 bracket. 125 is a mess and conference schedules are only giving an illusion of order rather than the reality of chaos.

There are plenty of non D1 kids and programs that churn out talent. Shawn Streck for example would be a top heavy in D1.