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Posted

To be in the Top 228 All-Time Point Scorers in NCAA history a wrestler needs to have at least 59 total points (advancement, bonus, and placement). Baseball has The Mendoza Line, I have The Ed Peery Line.

There is one wrestler knocking on that door this year. And two who have kicked the son of a bitch in (with thanks to Bum Phillips).

Vito Aruj-wow
Vito Arujau has scored 55 points to date across three tournaments. With an average performance he can cross The Ed Peery Line and get to 73 total points, good for a tie for 82nd with Northern Iowa all-time great Bill Koll (46-48). Sure, Koll got his 73 along with 3 titles in just three years, but that is still some heady company.

Anyone expecting Arujau to have an average year probably does not like nice things. More likely is Arujau repeats, or even exceeds, last year's achievement. A repeat performance would boost his total to 77 total points, good for a four way tie at 62nd with Wayne Martin (OK 34-36), Pat Milkovich (MSU 72-76), and Myles Amine (Mich 17-22).

A real heater could see him as high as 85 points and a place in the top 27 all-time, and 1 point ahead of former teammate Yianni D.

Carter "You Don't Have To Be A" Starocci "Baby (To Be in My Show)"
Carter Starocci is already among the all-timers with 67 total points to date, clocking in at #125 along with some other names you may have heard (Mark Schultz UCLA/OK 80-84, Greg Jones MSU 02-05, Earl McCready OK ST 28-30, Dave Porter MICH 66-68, Chuck Yagla IA 73-76, and Bo Jordan OH ST 15-18). Among that group, only McCready, and Porter can keep pace with Starocci's per year output, though (22.33).

Starocci has not been a bonus point machine at the NCAA tournament, racking up only 7 total points. Though, for the numerologists in the crowd it may be interesting to note that he has doubled his bonus point output each year (1,2,4). Dare we put him down for 8 bonus points this year? Sure, what the hell. With a 28 point total this year and a 4 year total of 95 total points he would find himself in some very rarified air, top 9 and tied with bonus point machine Darryl Burley (Lehigh 79-83).

A perfect score moves him up to 8th where he would displace Bo Nickal and slot in just behind Jason Nolf. A perhaps more probable average performance moves him up to the 89.5 range where Iowa's finest, Spencer "The One We Were Promised" Lee (I know, I know, subject to debate), resides along with fellow Iowan Jim Zalesky in 18th position.

A-A-Ron Brooks
Aaron Brooks has taken advantage of an extra half bonus point to slot in above his teammate at a tie for 123rd to date, with 67.5 total points. None other than Yojiro "I Do Not Like To Rub It In" Uetake (OKST 64-66) is sitting there with him. Brooks may want to consider not returning this year just so that his name is always mentioned in the same sentence as the legendary Cowboy.

In the event he does not heed my advice and does return, Brooks can expect to continue to be in the same conversation with Starocci. An average performance slots him in at 16th alongside Iowa's Lincoln McIlravy and Northwestern's Jake Herbert on 90 points. While a max output sees him on the Second Team Mount Rushmore in 8th place on 97.5 points.

Note
All past wrestlers were re-scored using today's scoring method for advancement, placement, and bonus points. This created some obvious challenges for some of the really old dudes, but whatta ya gonna do?  The answer is nothing. I just made some simplifying assumptions, which I also will do with the new scoring rules for this year.

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Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge

Posted
1 hour ago, KCMO2 said:

Are these total team points you're talking?  If so, O'Toole is currently at 62.5 (18, 22, 22.5), with 2 years left.

I am very annoyed with myself. I have Keegan O'Toole in my database and just completely overlooked him.

At 62.5 points he sits 189th on the list in a tie with a couple of Iowans, Dan Holm (72-75), and Derek St. John (11-14). With one more title he jumps into the top 30 all-time.

And because of that fifth year, he has a chance to challenge The King's total of 107.5 points. Though, if he has two more title years identical to his last two he would come up a mere half point short. But if he can ramp up the bonus scoring while still winning titles, he has a shot. Technically, he can still take second with four pins and pull it off.

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Posted
On 8/17/2023 at 11:29 AM, Wrestleknownothing said:

I am very annoyed with myself. I have Keegan O'Toole in my database and just completely overlooked him.

At 62.5 points he sits 189th on the list in a tie with a couple of Iowans, Dan Holm (72-75), and Derek St. John (11-14). With one more title he jumps into the top 30 all-time.

And because of that fifth year, he has a chance to challenge The King's total of 107.5 points. Though, if he has two more title years identical to his last two he would come up a mere half point short. But if he can ramp up the bonus scoring while still winning titles, he has a shot. Technically, he can still take second with four pins and pull it off.

This would definitely require an asterisk.  5 years for goodness sake!

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, Lipdrag said:

This would definitely require an asterisk.  5 years for goodness sake!

He would not be the first guy on the list with five tournaments. Both Myles Amine and Jaydin Eierman are among the top 228 with five tournaments. Eierman had more than enough after four tournaments, but Amine was only a half point above The Ed Peery Line after four tournaments.

For that reason I started looking at it on a per tournament basis. Then later I looked at it on a per match basis, because until recently there was a lot of variability in bracket sizes.

On a per tournament basis I am guessing O'Toole will end up looking very good. But Eierman (#226 of 228) is hurt by his injury and Amine (#218) is hurt by his first four tournaments. Meanwhile, Wayne Martin is tied with Amine in total points, but he is fifth highest in points per tournament.

Edited by Wrestleknownothing
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Posted
4 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

On a per tournament basis I am guessing O'Toole will end up looking very good. But Eierman (#226 of 228) is hurt by his injury and Amine (#218) is hurt by his first four tournaments

🤣

Posted
On 8/17/2023 at 11:29 AM, Wrestleknownothing said:

I am very annoyed with myself. I have Keegan O'Toole in my database and just completely overlooked him.

At 62.5 points he sits 189th on the list in a tie with a couple of Iowans, Dan Holm (72-75), and Derek St. John (11-14). With one more title he jumps into the top 30 all-time.

And because of that fifth year, he has a chance to challenge The King's total of 107.5 points. Though, if he has two more title years identical to his last two he would come up a mere half point short. But if he can ramp up the bonus scoring while still winning titles, he has a shot. Technically, he can still take second with four pins and pull it off.

I know you are explaining but it just seems you should only count the first 4 years. Everyone on the least would 10 to 23 points if they would have had a 5th year of competition.  Letting the current wrestlers use 5 years to collect points skews the results.

Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Paul158 said:

I know you are explaining but it just seems you should only count the first 4 years. Everyone on the least would 10 to 23 points if they would have had a 5th year of competition.  Letting the current wrestlers use 5 years to collect points skews the results.

By that token I should only count years 2-4. And now that I type that out loud. Maybe I will. Could be interesting.

Edited by Wrestleknownothing
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Posted
On 8/16/2023 at 1:49 PM, Wrestleknownothing said:

To be in the Top 228 All-Time Point Scorers in NCAA history a wrestler needs to have at least 59 total points (advancement, bonus, and placement). Baseball has The Mendoza Line, I have The Ed Peery Line.

There is one wrestler knocking on that door this year. And two who have kicked the son of a bitch in (with thanks to Bum Phillips).

Vito Aruj-wow
Vito Arujau has scored 55 points to date across three tournaments. With an average performance he can cross The Ed Peery Line and get to 73 total points, good for a tie for 82nd with Northern Iowa all-time great Bill Koll (46-48). Sure, Koll got his 73 along with 3 titles in just three years, but that is still some heady company.

Anyone expecting Arujau to have an average year probably does not like nice things. More likely is Arujau repeats, or even exceeds, last year's achievement. A repeat performance would boost his total to 77 total points, good for a four way tie at 62nd with Wayne Martin (OK 34-36), Pat Milkovich (MSU 72-76), and Myles Amine (Mich 17-22).

A real heater could see him as high as 85 points and a place in the top 27 all-time, and 1 point ahead of former teammate Yianni D.

Carter "You Don't Have To Be A" Starocci "Baby (To Be in My Show)"
Carter Starocci is already among the all-timers with 67 total points to date, clocking in at #125 along with some other names you may have heard (Mark Schultz UCLA/OK 80-84, Greg Jones MSU 02-05, Earl McCready OK ST 28-30, Dave Porter MICH 66-68, Chuck Yagla IA 73-76, and Bo Jordan OH ST 15-18). Among that group, only McCready, and Porter can keep pace with Starocci's per year output, though (22.33).

Starocci has not been a bonus point machine at the NCAA tournament, racking up only 7 total points. Though, for the numerologists in the crowd it may be interesting to note that he has doubled his bonus point output each year (1,2,4). Dare we put him down for 8 bonus points this year? Sure, what the hell. With a 28 point total this year and a 4 year total of 95 total points he would find himself in some very rarified air, top 9 and tied with bonus point machine Darryl Burley (Lehigh 79-83).

A perfect score moves him up to 8th where he would displace Bo Nickal and slot in just behind Jason Nolf. A perhaps more probable average performance moves him up to the 89.5 range where Iowa's finest, Spencer "The One We Were Promised" Lee (I know, I know, subject to debate), resides along with fellow Iowan Jim Zalesky in 18th position.

A-A-Ron Brooks
Aaron Brooks has taken advantage of an extra half bonus point to slot in above his teammate at a tie for 123rd to date, with 67.5 total points. None other than Yojiro "I Do Not Like To Rub It In" Uetake (OKST 64-66) is sitting there with him. Brooks may want to consider not returning this year just so that his name is always mentioned in the same sentence as the legendary Cowboy.

In the event he does not heed my advice and does return, Brooks can expect to continue to be in the same conversation with Starocci. An average performance slots him in at 16th alongside Iowa's Lincoln McIlravy and Northwestern's Jake Herbert on 90 points. While a max output sees him on the Second Team Mount Rushmore in 8th place on 97.5 points.

Note
All past wrestlers were re-scored using today's scoring method for advancement, placement, and bonus points. This created some obvious challenges for some of the really old dudes, but whatta ya gonna do?  The answer is nothing. I just made some simplifying assumptions, which I also will do with the new scoring rules for this year.

We are lucky to have you here, brodie

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Posted
5 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

By that token I should only count years 2-4. And now that I type that out loud. Maybe I will. Could be interesting.

You are doing a great job. I applaud your efforts.Are you familiar with a gentleman from Ohio named Brian Brakeman? 

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Posted

I concur with my colleagues.  This is great stuff and I really appreciate that you put it together for our edification and entertainment.

I would love the years 2 - 4 comparisons.  That will be the closest thing to a fair comparison across the ages to your already provided per match comparison which as close as possible accounts for differing bracket size.  Maybe a "Round of 16 and later in years 2 - 4" would be the ultimate apples to apples comparison.

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Posted
2 hours ago, Paul158 said:

You are doing a great job. I applaud your efforts.Are you familiar with a gentleman from Ohio named Brian Brakeman? 

I just looked him up. My kind of guy.

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Posted
You are doing a great job. I applaud your efforts.Are you familiar with a gentleman from Ohio named Brian Brakeman? 

Brakeman, the freaking OG of amazing HS analysts.
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Posted
I concur with my colleagues.  This is great stuff and I really appreciate that you put it together for our edification and entertainment.
I would love the years 2 - 4 comparisons.  That will be the closest thing to a fair comparison across the ages to your already provided per match comparison which as close as possible accounts for differing bracket size.  Maybe a "Round of 16 and later in years 2 - 4" would be the ultimate apples to apples comparison.

Eras and rule sets make going across those divides so difficult. I applaud the effort for sure.

Also, perhaps the “best 4” is a fair metric? It’s not equal but it may be equitable in trying to get the idea of this across. Might be worth throwing against the wall …
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Posted
2 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

I just looked him up. My kind of guy.

 

2 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

I just looked him up. My kind of guy.

I don't know you well but work reminds a lot  Brian. Ohio was very fortunate to have him I think he did his analytical assessment of Ohio wrestling for 40 years or more.

Posted
5 minutes ago, Jason Bryant said:


Brakeman, the freaking OG of amazing HS analysts.

Yes he was .He did amazing work. He mentioned my younger brother  had the best cradle he had ever seen. pretty cool guy.

Posted
8 minutes ago, Jason Bryant said:


Eras and rule sets make going across those divides so difficult. I applaud the effort for sure.

Also, perhaps the “best 4” is a fair metric? It’s not equal but it may be equitable in trying to get the idea of this across. Might be worth throwing against the wall …

Good idea. He is doing a great job.

Posted (edited)
14 hours ago, Paul158 said:

You are doing a great job. I applaud your efforts.Are you familiar with a gentleman from Ohio named Brian Brakeman? 

The Brakeman reports were always a great read and wealth of information.  You can still find them online... a couple of my favorite reads were his take on Shawn Nelson, North Royalton, Ohio (now the coach at Findlay College) and Luke Fickell, now the head football coach at Wisconsin.  If you are ever bored, pulled a couple of these up for your reading enjoyment....also a great learning experience.  Fadz        http://www.ovaecwrestling.com/2010/2008_brakeman.htm

Edited by Fadzaev2
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Posted
16 hours ago, Paul158 said:

You are doing a great job. I applaud your efforts.Are you familiar with a gentleman from Ohio named Brian Brakeman? 

I read through a few of his reports. This guy puts me to shame. His level of detail and analysis was incredible.

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Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge

Posted
2 hours ago, Fadzaev2 said:

The Brakeman reports were always a great read and wealth of information.  You can still find them online... a couple of my favorite reads were his take on Shawn Nelson, North Royalton, Ohio (now the coach at Findlay College) and Luke Fickell, now the head football coach at Wisconsin.  If you are ever bored, pulled a couple of these up for your reading enjoyment....also a great learning experience.  Fadz        http://www.ovaecwrestling.com/2010/2008_brakeman.htm

I Appreciate that thanks. Yes the reports were amazing. I had 2 brothers who were mentioned in them. But my nephew who went to Walsh who was a three champ and 4 time finalist go a lot of print.

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