Assess your team's AA chances after Day 1

[Crotalus]

Mizzou had a pretty solid day 1 and went pretty much as expected. Surtin lost rd 1 in a mild upset (19 over 12) and Hawks pulled an upset (22 over 11) before losing a surprisingly tight match to Romero (5-3). Here's how I view the team's AA chances.

125 - Surtin - has a winnable next match in the consis against Trombley and then would likely face Stevo again (lost to him 11-4 in Big 12 finals). If he were to win that, he would face the loser of Courtney/Glory in the blood round. He will not AA.

133 - Brown - the only Mizzou guy already eliminated.

141 - Hart - will be an underdog against Woods in the quarters. If he does lose, he would face the winner of Carlson/Happel/Ervin/Titus (Carlson or Happel most likely). Great chance to AA.

149 - Mauller - has Parco in the quarters. Parco beat Mauller 3-2 earlier in the season. If he loses he would face the winner of Abas/Voinovich/Moore/Arrington (Abas most likely). I give him about a 50/50 chance to win one of these two tough matches to AA.

157 - Jaques - in the consis has Gilcher next. If he wins that, likely will face Ed Scott. I think he loses that match, but if he does win he would face the loser of Robb/Cardenas. He will not AA.

165 - O'Toole is the favorite over Kharchla, but to cover my bases, if he were to lose, he would face Hall/Heller/Cook/Olejnik and should easily AA.

174 - Mocco - has Labriola in the quarters. I expect him to lose that match. He would then face Pasiuk/DeVos/Eischens/Olmos (Olmos or Devos most likely) in the blood round. If he doesn't do anything stupid, he can win that match and AA.

184 - Hawks - wrestling pretty well so far. Has Hoose next in the consis and then would likely face Pinto. I think he loses that match, but if he wins he would face the loser of Keckeisen/Salazar. He will not AA

197 - R. Elam - will be the favorite over Smith (MD) in the quarters, but Smith appears to be wrestling pretty tough. If Elam were to lose he would face the winner of Hoffman/Dean/Harvey/Pentz (Dean most likely). That would obviously be a tough match against last years champ, but Dean seems to be slumping and would have Elam as the favorite. Great chance to AA.

Hvy - Z. Elam - Facing Hendrickson in the quarters and I expect he will lose. He would then face the winner of Niesenbaum/Gordon/Goldin/McKiernan in the blood round. Not sure who wins that, but it will be a winnable match for Big Elam. I have claimed a few times that he can't break through that r12 barrier, but he has a decent chance to prove me wrong here.

So six guys with a decent chance to AA. Two are near locks, the other four just need to pull off one tough win. Less than four AAs will be a disappointment, but all six would be a surprise.

[Scouts Honor]

4 maybe 5 for NU

 

[Jimmy Cinnabon]

Penn State: I expect 6.  Maybe 7.  8 if everything goes perfectly.

RBY 100%

Bartlett 50%

SVN 75%

Haines 80%

Starocci 100%

Brooks 100%

Dean 50%

Kerk 100%

[poorwrestler]

Minnesota COULD have 5 AA, likely only 2-3.

McKee could do what he does on the back side again, but DeAugustino is a really tough start. The boneheaded loss against Ventresca could haunt him. Could end up with Noto in the blood round.

Nagao will lose to RBY and have Cannon to AA, lost to him in the dual on a last second nearside.

Bergeland has MFF out. Great career for him.

Blockhus has SIUE kid and then winner of Demas/Realbuto. He’s had troubles with both of those. If he can get past them, has Rooks from Indiana who he’s majored twice

Sparks did well winning a match but will not AA.

O’Reilly will lose to Starocci and could have Ethan Smith in the blood round. Bad match up for him.

Salazar has a small chance against Keckeisen, a loss could give him Pinto in the blood round, which scares me.


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[MPhillips]

OSU

Mendez 133 slight chance.

D'Emilio 141 less than slight chance.

Sasso 149 AA

Paddy 157 slim chance.

Kharch 165 better chance.

Smith 174 slim chance.

Romero 184 AA

Hoffman 197 almost no chance.

Orndorff 285 almost no chance.

Go Buckeyes...

[poorwrestler]

OSU
Mendez 133 slight chance.
D'Emilio 141 less than slight chance.
Sasso 149 AA
Paddy 157 slim chance.
Kharch 165 better chance.
Smith 174 slim chance.
Romero 184 AA
Hoffman 197 almost no chance.
Orndorff 285 almost no chance.
Go Buckeyes...

Ethan Smith has about as easy a path through the blood round as you can get, imo.


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[MPhillips]

1 minute ago, poorwrestler said:

Ethan Smith has about as easy a path through the blood round as you can get, imo.
 

I don't disagree. I just don't believe he has it.

[ionel]

No chance.

Even my Pinto blew up.  

[poorwrestler]

I don't disagree. I just don't believe he has it.

Fair. You would certainly know better than I. It’s likely him and O’Reilly meet in the blood round, and I don’t think he has it either. It’ll be the ultimate lack-of-it off.


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[Wrestleknownothing]

[Wrestleknownothing]

1 hour ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said:

Penn State: I expect 6.  Maybe 7.  8 if everything goes perfectly.

RBY 100%

Bartlett 50%

SVN 75%

Haines 80%

Starocci 100%

Brooks 100%

Dean 50%

Kerk 100%

No PSU premium added. Your mileage may differ.

[Wrestleknownothing]

2 hours ago, Crotalus said:

Mizzou had a pretty solid day 1 and went pretty much as expected. Surtin lost rd 1 in a mild upset (19 over 12) and Hawks pulled an upset (22 over 11) before losing a surprisingly tight match to Romero (5-3). Here's how I view the team's AA chances.

125 - Surtin - has a winnable next match in the consis against Trombley and then would likely face Stevo again (lost to him 11-4 in Big 12 finals). If he were to win that, he would face the loser of Courtney/Glory in the blood round. He will not AA.

133 - Brown - the only Mizzou guy already eliminated.

141 - Hart - will be an underdog against Woods in the quarters. If he does lose, he would face the winner of Carlson/Happel/Ervin/Titus (Carlson or Happel most likely). Great chance to AA.

149 - Mauller - has Parco in the quarters. Parco beat Mauller 3-2 earlier in the season. If he loses he would face the winner of Abas/Voinovich/Moore/Arrington (Abas most likely). I give him about a 50/50 chance to win one of these two tough matches to AA.

157 - Jaques - in the consis has Gilcher next. If he wins that, likely will face Ed Scott. I think he loses that match, but if he does win he would face the loser of Robb/Cardenas. He will not AA.

165 - O'Toole is the favorite over Kharchla, but to cover my bases, if he were to lose, he would face Hall/Heller/Cook/Olejnik and should easily AA.

174 - Mocco - has Labriola in the quarters. I expect him to lose that match. He would then face Pasiuk/DeVos/Eischens/Olmos (Olmos or Devos most likely) in the blood round. If he doesn't do anything stupid, he can win that match and AA.

184 - Hawks - wrestling pretty well so far. Has Hoose next in the consis and then would likely face Pinto. I think he loses that match, but if he wins he would face the loser of Keckeisen/Salazar. He will not AA

197 - R. Elam - will be the favorite over Smith (MD) in the quarters, but Smith appears to be wrestling pretty tough. If Elam were to lose he would face the winner of Hoffman/Dean/Harvey/Pentz (Dean most likely). That would obviously be a tough match against last years champ, but Dean seems to be slumping and would have Elam as the favorite. Great chance to AA.

Hvy - Z. Elam - Facing Hendrickson in the quarters and I expect he will lose. He would then face the winner of Niesenbaum/Gordon/Goldin/McKiernan in the blood round. Not sure who wins that, but it will be a winnable match for Big Elam. I have claimed a few times that he can't break through that r12 barrier, but he has a decent chance to prove me wrong here.

So six guys with a decent chance to AA. Two are near locks, the other four just need to pull off one tough win. Less than four AAs will be a disappointment, but all six would be a surprise.

This is how I handicap Missouri:

[Crotalus]

14 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

This is how I handicap Missouri:

Awesome, thanks. Lines up pretty well with my eye test predictions. 

[poorwrestler]

No PSU premium added. Your mileage may differ.

Shayne Van Ness 99% chance today. He’s going to whoop Rooks.


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[Crotalus]

20 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Interesting all of these schools AA probabilities have gone up. Which schools probabilities have fallen off the most?

[Wrestleknownothing]

Just now, Crotalus said:

Interesting all of these schools AA probabilities have gone up. Which schools probabilities have fallen off the most?

This was harder than the pre-tourney stuff because it becomes a matrix/path dependent. Since I do not have a machine readable source of bracket/results (or at least not easily machine readable) there was a lot of hand work so I only did it for the top 8 teams. But I imagine almost all of the schools who had between 0.1 and 0.9, now have around 0.0

[Wrestleknownothing]

13 minutes ago, poorwrestler said:

Shayne Van Ness 99% chance today. He’s going to whoop Rooks.


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I grant you 30.8% seems low, but 99% is high. 

[poorwrestler]

I grant you 30.8% seems low, but 99% is high. 

Yeah maybe a little overzealous on my part lol


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