Danny Deck

2016 was ultimately decided by 80,000 votes across three states, 2020 was decided by 40,000 votes in three states. Maybe the gap will be wider this time because of Harris's weaknesses, but I can't imagine being certain of anything more than a coin flip right now. To really close the loop on the Trump era, we need a Trump popular vote win and a Harris electoral vote win.

"I know I told you to go ***duck** yourselves, but now I would like for the state to force you to give me money." https://www.theverge.com/2024/8/6/24214536/x-elon-musk-antitrust-lawsuit-advertisers-boycott

They look like nonsense and, even if they weren't, irrelevant to the subject of how or why Google and others might want to hard code against certain auto suggested terms.

I'm fascinated by the idea that someone looking for information about the assassination attempt would give up if they couldn't use the auto fill feature. I would guess they hard code against auto fill suggestions for assassination and any current political figure to avoid the bad optics of it popping up before an attempt. I got no auto fill suggestion for an assassination or kidnapping attempt on Nancy or Paul Pelosi. If you torture the spelling, you can get one for kidnapping attempt on "nany pelosi's' husband." If you go through the onerous work of typing out "assassination attempt on trump" for yourself, you get plenty of relevant results. This makes me think of the meme I saw the other day, "You know the search is good if the top result is a help hotline."

Dean Phillips, a 3 term backbencher in the house, was not plausible. Compare to others who did more to damage the incumbent: Ted Kennedy - national figure who had been a senator for 18 years Ronald Reagan - 2 term governor of California, actor Eugene McCarthy - 10 years in the senate, 20 years in office, had given nationally televised speeches before Pat Buchanan - Part of 3 presidential administrations, often on TV, had a radio show Maybe Newsom would have fit the bill? The governors getting the tryout for VP seem okay, but it's hard to say many had a national profile before last week.

I'd have bet the field for sure. The more interesting alternate history is what would have happened if one plausible candidate entered the primary vs Biden and polled well? Would others have entered if one had entered and shown Biden's weakness?

He was obviously forced out. It's too bad it didn't happen a year ago.

The base loved him but all the way back to 2022, 75% of Democrats wanted someone else as nominee in 2024. In recent polls 90% of Democrats say he did the right thing stepping down.

You know what they call having the most medals because we're a rich country? Having the most medals.

On the flip side, these all seem like sports the US should dominate in and run up our medal total. USA USA USA

As far back as 2022 I can find polls of Democrats where 75% wanted someone other than Biden as the 2024 nominee, and recently polls with 90% of Democrats saying Biden did the right thing deciding not to run for another term. At this late date, it seems they've definitely reconciled themselves to the ends (any plausible Not Biden candidate) justifying the means (lots of pressure and getting in line behind Harris). I wish a plausible challenger had stepped forward after the midterms. It's ironic that a better than expected mid term got them into this position.

Presumed Innocent is ridiculous, but I've enjoyed it. House of the Dragon has improved as its actually gotten to the war part.

It's at least a little fascinating how when abortion itself is on the ballot, the pro-choice side wins even in red states. However, where legislators enact bans, I don't think any have paid any electoral price for it.

This doesn't include the kicker about how he could stay if his parents had come illegally, but here's a Bloomberg story for anyone else who doesn't Twitter. https://news.bloomberglaw.com/us-law-week/removing-documented-dreamers-harms-economy-senators-to-hear Actually here's another article actually by Billy Binion. https://reason.com/2024/07/08/he-immigrated-to-the-u-s-as-a-child-he-was-just-kicked-out-because-he-came-here-legally/ Lots of crazy things about our immigration system. Having a secret password to be let into the country is at the top, but kicking out people who have had all of their education in the American system right when they look to start contributing to the economy is second.

T-Mobile has a 5G home internet plan as well. It was plenty fast when I did the test drive (caveat, I don't game), but didn't play nicely with the work VPN. Overall, if you can get fiber, I think that's still the way to go even if it's more expensive. I have AT&T and it has been solid.

I couldn't find the 2017 version, but I assume these questions from 2014 were the same in 2017 to get the graph in the tweet. If they asked these questions every time, I'm not sure you have to hold the left most possible position to pick the liberal position in this survey. The tweet makes it sound like it's more about pushing the position to the left, i.e. from legal abortion up to 16 weeks to legal abortion the entire pregnancy. This seems more like people are becoming less ideologically heterodox and that's somewhat more pronounced on the left than the right. "Today, almost four-in-ten (38%) politically engaged Democrats are consistent liberals, up from just 8% in 1994. The change among Republicans since then appears less dramatic – 33% express consistently conservative views, up from 23% in the midst of the 1994 “Republican Revolution.” But a decade ago, just 10% of politically engaged Republicans had across-the-board conservative attitudes." https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2014/06/12/political-polarization-in-the-american-public/

Warnock or Whitmer.

Things look bad for the Democrats, but the implied 50 state sweep for Republicans here won't happen either.

Had Biden announced he wasn't running again after the mid-terms, I think they would have had lots of options. Biden saying he was running prevented them from finding a decent candidate. Now they have logistical problems as much as they have trouble identifying a candidate. Whitmer and Shapiro are popular governors of important electoral states and seem like they'll be early front runners for 2028 regardless of what happens this year. I like Jared Polis. I'm sure they wouldn't be palatable enough to the national Democratic party, but from an electoral success standpoint, Andy Beshear and Roy Cooper have both won governorships twice in red states. I just hope it doesn't end up being some senator who hasn't actually had to get anything done other than make speeches.

Oh wow, they got Caro for the first episode. I'm going to give this a listen.

Checking in here. Top books read since February: The Friends of Eddie Coyle by George V. Higgins Oscar Wars by Michael Schulman The Demon of Unrest by Erik Larson Re read The Last Picture Show by Larry McMurtry and I love it even more. I've also been reading the Throne of Glass series in hopes that I'll understand more of the Reels the lady friend sends me. I feel like they have definitely gotten better although Fantasy isn't generally my preferred genre. Reading Independence Day by Richard Ford and Easy Riders Raging Bulls by Peter Biskind now. So far a big fan of both.

https://www.joshbarro.com/p/progressive-groups-lie-because-lying

He lost 60/40 so I'm skeptical his loss is solely because of AIPAC's influence. I'd put the fire alarm stunt higher on the list for instance. It looks to me like his district is pretty well to do, so first things first, don't embarrass your constituents.

Deregulate the housing market and remove electricity subsidies and those prices are going to skyrocket and hit those on the line of poverty first and hardest. A one week pause in inflation in the cost of food is good, but could be pretty ephemeral too. His policies may be necessary and eventually succeed, but the short term pain will be tremendous.

Obviously I can't prove it, but I'm firmly convinced that but for the BLM protests, he would have picked Kloubuchar as VP, and would have at least been more likely to not run again. Kamala not having the juice, but being next in line is what's gotten us here on the Democratic side.