Danny Deck

There were two fires, one in Portland and one across the river in Vancouver, WA. I thought this was the Vancouver one.

What assumptions are we making about who set fire to ballots in the only large city in a toss up district?

Are you reading the full sentence that you partially bolded incorrectly?

You should try reading again, that's not what the first paragraph says. The second paragraph says his job approval is high "for him." Since we can assume that his overall job approval is being dragged down by Republicans and Independents, it was likely Democrats keeping him relatively afloat on this metric. The 6th paragraph states that previous polls have all cited his age as a major concern about him running again. I interpret his age and his fitness to be roughly the same concern. Different poll from 2022: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/11/us/politics/biden-approval-polling-2024.html In this one he has a 70% job approval rating among Democrats but only 26% of Democrats said he should be the nominee in 2024. Concerns about his age again topped the reason for concern for him running again. A majority of Democrats did not want him to run again. The top concern clearly had to do with his ability to do the job.

Here's a poll from 2022 showing a majority of Democrats didn't think Biden should run again. A remarkable number of people don’t want Joe Biden to run again | CNN Politics

https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/table-16-when-absentee-mail-ballot-processing-and-counting-can-begin This table has when states can process and then count mail in votes. It seems to me that most of the delays in finalizing the vote count can be remedied by two things: 1. Mail in ballots can be processed upon receipt and tabulating can start when polls open election day (if not earlier). 2. Mail in ballots must be received by when polls close Mostly electronic voting systems like India uses would also speed things up, but seem like a non-starter in the US these days given the loud contingent that wants exclusively paper balloting.

Here is the article: https://www.12news.com/article/news/politics/elections/decision-2024/maricopa-county-elections-officials-ask-for-patience-ahead-of-general-election-voting/75-153501b3-f721-4f0b-b193-17ed2cdc3e64 It seems they are basing it on ballots received so far vs 2020. But I'm sure this is something you want to under promise and over deliver on.

It seems to me like the parties were a lot less homogenous on the conservative/liberal spectrum in the past and lots of sorting has gradually happened over the last several decades. It's a lot more rare to hear someone described as a conservative Democrat or liberal Republican these days than what I see pop up when I read political history.

"An average of 79 contests per ballot" Yeesh. That's too many IMO. AZ can process and tally mail in votes upon receipt, and in 2020 90% of votes were by mail. Even with the tremendous number of contests it seems like they should be able to get them counted faster than this. They do allow mail in votes to be received through 7 PM on election day. Assuming the vast majority must not arrive until the last few days.

It's a tale old as time. People want all sorts of free lunches. Cleaner energy, American made products, the list is nearly endless. They just want them to not cost one penny more than the status quo.

This shows 1% more Republicans voted for Biden than Democrats voted for Trump. I'm not sure this is a meaningful distinction. Straight ticket voting is becoming more and more common. There are very few splits senate delegations anymore, and who the state voted for for president is very determinative of what party the senators are from. https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/how-groups-voted-2020

Teaser trailer for the current Oscar front runner. I'm really excited for this one.

They have accessed both of their phones? https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/15/politics/fbi-shooter-phone/index.html https://www.newsweek.com/ryan-routh-donald-trump-assassination-attempt-hearing-1957914

Pfizer's vaccine received final approval in 2021 and Moderna in 2022. Neither are being used under an emergency authorization. All vaccine makers have immunity from lawsuits even after approval because we do not want them to pull vaccines from the market. It looks like the Vaccine Injury Compensation Program pays out the most per million doses to people with injuries that may have been caused by the Tetanus vaccine.

I make it a practice to never believe Amuse because, well, that's always turned out to be the correct stance. The agreement was for monitors. There are monitors. The county is working from an opinion from the state AG that the selection of monitors is ultimately up to the county and not the state election board, and that there agreement to appoint and pay for those monitors was ultimately voluntary. The state board fighting the existing monitors make it more likely that there will be no monitors at allrather than they will have their preferred monitors. https://www.11alive.com/article/news/politics/elections/fulton-county-election-observed-by-independent-monitor/85-5af63021-373c-4b9d-ab35-681443e7edf0

I think having it at Globe Life Field in Dallas (Arlington) would be a disaster. Not much in the way of hotels or restaurants in walking distance. It sounds like that's what they bid with. It would be nice for more southern cities to make bids for sure. I wish the Phoenix bid for their baseball stadium would have gotten a chance. It seems like more amenities in the area to give the entire experience a better chance.

There are monitors in place, the state board wants different ones. From what I understand, the state board can't force their preferred monitors over the ones Fulton has a contract with, but I guess that will be litigated.

Deadpool & Wolverine - somehow both fun and punishing at the same time. I won't revisit because it's the latter that I most remember. Dune Part Two - I thought this was great. It's just amazing how good both of these movies look.

So far the year has been kind of hit or miss, but I'm looking forward to the fall for movies. Saturday Night Venom: The Last Dance Conclave Juror No. 2 A Real Pain Gladiator 2 The Brutalist A Complete Unknown

I think the governments are way ahead of the people in Muslim countries on having a normal relationship with Israel. See The Abraham Accords, which were done despite not being popular in those countries.

1. The Godfather 2. Casablanca 3. Tombstone 4. No Country for Old Men 5. The Social Network 6. Pulp Fiction 7. Die Hard 8. Snatch 9. Dazed and Confused 10. The Big Lebowski Didn't think too hard on this. Lots of others I love, but these are probably up there on ones I've watched the most.

Movie theaters are definitely going to contract. There will probably always be enough of a market to keep them alive in some capacity. On Saturday night I went to a 30th Anniversary screening of Pulp Fiction at our local independent theater. It had a pretty good crowd for the second night of the showings and minimal advertising. But they're getting squeezed pretty hard by there not being enough new movies being released. There are fewer studios putting out fewer movies now. And that's before Covid and last year's strikes limited supply even more. It seems they're planning to convert into places that have several entertainment options, bowling, pickleball, etc in addition to movies. I assume that will mean my closest theater will go from an AMC 20 to an AMC 10 plus bowling.

On set they called it "Death of a ***duck**in' Salesman."

They for sure need some way to tax them as the increased weight is going to be harder on roads. Agree that the per mile methods are invasive. All EVs seem to be major data collectors.