nhs67

Davison has beaten Cassioppi before, albeit in a different style. If you are only looking at their Folkstyle results in-season, which I understand, you would also notice that Cassioppi is trending down in not only his series with Davison but his series with Kerkvliet. VS Davison - 1/14/22, Win via Dec 7-3 - 1/13/23, Win via Dec 3-2 - 3/4/23, Win via Dec 4-2 (SV-1) VS Kerkvliet - 3/6/21, Win via Major 9-0 - 1/28/22, Win via Dec 7-2 - 3/5/22, Win via Dec 6-4 (SV-1) - 1/27/23, Loss via Dec 4-1 - 3/4/23, Loss via Dec 5-0 What I mean to say is that Kerkvliet has separated himself. He improved more the last year than Cassioppi. Davison has also improved more. What you are also ignoring is that Kerkvliet beat a guy who pinned him, in Hendrickson at the same season ending NCAAs this year. At the same tournament Cassioppi lost to Parris via 16-1 Techfall where Kerkvliet lost via 5-1 Decision. Kerkvliet has earned himself next tier up due to his results. Are we going to say Cassioppi is going to beat Parris because he techfalled him back their senior season in High School when Parris was first coming up from 220? No. These guys are ever-evolving and Kerkvliet has separated himself.

125, 141, and 149 could all 0-2 at NCAAs or they could win 2-4 matches and mid-AA. I wouldn't be surprised by either. They all improved quite throughout the season last year and I expect another pretty good leap. I think 197 and 285 have the same mid-AA peak potential, but have a higher floor. I would expect both to win at least two matches at NCAAs. Maryland could have as many as five (5) AAs next year. I expect two. Let's put the over/under at 3.5. I think if they ball out at NCAAs they could see in your higher range and I wouldn't be surprised. Just like I wouldn't be surprised to see them around 15-20 points depending on how the brackets line up for the big guys.

If we are comparing VV to JJ or CR, then I am thinking +1.5 wins at NCAAs. Iowa always puts out tough, quality guys at 149 and I think either of them might win a match or two at NCAAs. Me mentioning Brooks was simply because he might not have gone up, or he still might have. In either scenario, you can ignore the Brooks portion, as a likely starter at 197 - were Truax to go there - would be Cochran, who I believe would have similar output to Ball. Still a +3.5 wins at NCAAs.

That is fair, just not what I did. I do see what you're saying. That becomes a bit more difficult, but I will try... Victor Voinovich (Iowa), replaces Cobe Siebrecht. Both of them are 2-4 type wins at NCAAs. That is even money. Shane Griffith (Mich), replaces Max Maylor or Joseph Walker. Both Maylor and Walker are 0-2 wins type guys at NCAAs. Griffith is a 3-5 wins type of guy. I will say he is +3.5 wins at NCAAs type of guy. Chris Cannon (Mich), replaces Patrick Nolan or Chris Kim. Kim is a fringe DNQ type of guy and Nolan is a 0-1 win type of guy at NCAAs. Cannon, up a weight is kind of a wildcard, but is a 2-5 wins type of guy at NCAAs. I will say that he is a +2.5 wins at NCAAs type of guy. Michael DeAugstino (Mich), replaces Kurt McHenry or Caden Horwath. I think McHenry and Horwath are both 0-2 wins type guys at NCAAs. DeAuggie is a 2-5 wins type guy at NCAAs. He has a wide range. I am thinking DeAuggie is a +2.5 wins at NCAAs type of guy. Lucas Davison (Mich), replaces Ira Jenkins. Ira Jenkins is a 0-2 wins type of guy at NCAAs, depending on how big he gets. Davison is a 4-5 wins type of guy at NCAAs. I will say he is +3.5 wins at NCAAs type of guy. Yaraslau Slavikouski (Rutgers), replaces Boone McDermott or PJ Casale. McDermott is a 0-1 win at NCAAs type guy and Casale would be a 0-2 wins at NCAAs type guy, depending on the draw. Slavikouski is a 3-4 win at NCAAs type guy. I will say Slavikouski is +2.5 wins at NCAAs. Aaron Nagao (Penn State), replaces Baylor Shunk, Braeden Davis, or David Evans. I think Davis and Evans could be a 1-3 win at NCAAs type guy and Shunk doesn't qualify. Let's call it 1-2 wins is what he is replacing and he is getting 4-5 wins (3rd or 4th). Nagao is +3.5 wins at NCAAs.. Seth Nevills (Maryland), replaces Sam O'Brian. O'Brian is DNQ type guy. Nevills is a 3-4 wins type guy. Nevills is a +3.5 wins at NCAAs. Mitchell Mesenbrink (Penn State), replaces Alex Facundo. I don't really think there is much debate to be had here, until proven otherwise. For next season the change to Mesenbrink from Facundo is/would be -0.5 wins at NCAAs. Bernie Truax (Penn State), replaces Aaron Brooks, Josh Barr, or Donovan Ball. Had Truax not come in would Brooks have gone up? If not then Truax is a regression. If he goes up then he is replacing Ball or Barr. I think Ball could have qualified, however is likely not winning any at nationals if he does. Barr could win a match or three, depending on draw. Truax is +3.5 wins at NCAAs.

Pitzer was one that had me on the edge. To the point that it was either him at 3 and Trephan at 4 or Shultzy down to 3 and Pitzer at 4. That win he had over Schultzy is the real kink in the knot. That said, I am starting to think Schultzy to 3 and Pitzer to 4 makes sense.

I compared to who they are replacing from last year. Impact VS previous result.

I could see that. I just don't see him losing to any TIER 5 guy, so that is my justification. What do your tiers look like?

Well I want Zillmer to go there, as well - with Trent. That will make it so they don't miss a beat. Hayden also probably helps Caliendo, Franek, and Sax immediately.

At 77 KG in Greco, yes we do. Former Bronze medalist at that.

Greetings All, @82bordeauxbrings up a good point in this thread. I am curious what people's opinions on tiers for next season are. The way I envision a tier system to be is that you can have a good competitive series with someone in your tier and your adjacent tiers. You typically get controlled or dominated by gents two or more tiers up and you control or dominate gents two or more tiers down from you. Now there are 'fluke' matches which tend to be outliers. Those are typically highlighted by a big move for big points, a Pinfall, or an injury. In a tiers list, we don't include those. Someone who wins a 1-0/2-0 match can also be two tiers up on someone as well - styles make matches. So here is what I have for HWT, I am curious what everybody else's opinions are. I did these pretty quick, and am flexible to move some gents up and down. Pitzer was the perplexing one, to me. I really wanted to split Tier 3 up, however a good way to look at it is I would favor the Tier 3 guys over each of the Tier 5 guys. - TIER 1 - Kerkvliet, Penn State Hendrickson, Air Force - TIER 2 - Cassioppi, Iowa Davison, Michigan Schultzy, Arizona State - TIER 3 - Slavikouski, Rutgers Elam, Mizzou Pitzer, Pittsburgh Fernandez, Cornell Bastida, Iowa State Feldman, the Ohio State - TIER 4 - Luffman, Illinois Nevills, Maryland Griess, Navy Ghadali, Campbell Taylor, Lehigh Gordon, Northern Iowa Catka, Virginia Tech Trephan, NC State - TIER 5 - Doucet, Oklahoma State Wolfgram, West Viriginia Bullock, Indiana Heindselman, Oklahoma Niesenbaum, Duke Copass, Purdue

While I wish him success and do hope that both him and Meredith (SDSU) can qualify and win matches, I don't put him even the tier below those four. I put him at best two tiers away from Cassioppi and Davison - right there with Catka, Trephan, etc. How would you tier the HWT division for next season? Actually I am going to start another thread so we don't hijack this one and I will tag you.

I believe Dr. @MPhillips thought that was stupid and he just wanted to make sure that is what you were actually saying. I might be wrong.

Aside for their last match, which more scored first but was obviously hampered by that elbow injury, Moore had separated himself considerably. Zahid should beat him easily.

O'Toole when he has said himself he plans to go 174 after Mocco isn't there anymore.

Flabbergastedly perplexed as well.

Lewis hates cutting. We aren't going to see him at 74 KG.

I was just saying it in a dick way that Lewis was going 184. There was some smoke there for it last year and this year there seems to be more of it and he is a notorious hater of weight cutting. I hope he goes 184.

Who and how? He is 5-2 the last two years while not even focusing on improving at wrestling. Who were those two losses to? Hunter Catka of VTech and Tyrie Houghton of NC State. Both of them have been focusing on wrestling so I expect them to have improved more amd one of them isn't even the starter for their squad. Right now I believe I am being very high on him with a R12 expectation. If he low AAs I will be ecstatic for him.

Well Gwiazdowski lost to a guy who isn't a Worlds or Olympic medalist. He must surely feel worse because he has more Worlds medals than Fix.

I am starting to think I am wrong here. J/s. There might be smoke there.

How do you think Colon feels. Will Cox have had a bad performance if he loses to Snyder?

Kerk, Hendrickson, Cassioppi, and Davison are all better than him, so how does that work?

I was also thinking sort of the same thing. Chlebove gives me lower tier B12/P12 or MAC/SOCON vibes as someone who might win 30+ matches for them, but will struggle against the elite that are going to hit clean shots and not need to scramble with him.

So Griffith is going to compete at 174 and 184 this next season? I thought it was basically 50/50 on him still going 165 with Amine going 174. Now you're saying he is going to have to wrestle Stalrocci at 174 and Lewis at 184? In any case, Griffith won the 165lb bracket that Lewis was attempting to defend as returning 165lb champion. Lewis did not win that bracket. Griffith is might be able to beat him - just not at 184. I don't see Griffith going to 184 this season.

If we are saying impact from a points added perspective from what they got last season, I am going to say Griffith (if he goes 174, not if he goes 165 and Amine at 174). My next answer was going to be Nevills of Maryland, but looking at it and Jaron Smith went 1-2 last year at NCAAs. I think Nevills has a comparable ceiling to Slavikouski. Slavikouski is replacing a guy in Boone McDermott who went 0-2 at NCAAs. That makes Slavikouski my 2nd option and Nevills my 3rd option. Truax at 184 might win it all, but then his points are comparable. Nagao might get 2nd, but then his points are comparable. Davison might win it all, but then his points are comparable. Jack Medley and Cole Mattin both went 2-2 at NCAAs for Michigan, so DeAuggie and Cannon can improve on that, but it won't be much more. 2 wins-ish isn't as much as Slavikouski or Nevills have potentially. Voinovich might get 6th, but then his points are comparable. Mesenbrink might AA next year for Penn State... but Facundo might also AA next year for Penn State at 165. So... nothing is set in stone there. Mesenbrink could also go 0-2... which would be comparable, right?