Good writeup, but kinda disagree with your conclusions here.
125 is a mess because everybody has been taking losses. Davis has not yet, although he really only has one win over a top 10ish guy in Kaylor. Beating DeAugustino would give him another one and IMO put him squarely in the national title conversation, which he may have somewhat been already due to the parity but I think many are hesitant to do yet.
On the flip side, both Nagao and Ragusin are proven commodities, no result would really surprise me. Ragusin has plenty of big wins in his career, just hasn’t been able to put it all together to AA yet.