Wrestleknownothing

This is going to sound crazy, but I think I will take Kasak if the match up happens.

I actually think the 1 and 2 are a hair light, but certainly within the range of historical norms. He has PSU predicted to win 2.7 titles. Seems about right to me.

Neither guy has been bonus machines at NCAA. Starocci has 11, including a year on one leg that impacted his wrestling style, while Dake had 13. No real difference here. The true outlier is Diakomihalis who had only 4 bonus points.

Here are the #10 - #16 seeds who are seeded below their Intermat rankings. I included their deviation to their coaches' rankings as well. Not every weight has someone seeded below their ranking in that range.

I added a couple of categories: career bonus % and longest win streak. And I renamed the top quartile to top 2 rank. I originally used this for all the 100%ers (not just the four-timers, so top quartile made sense for the larger group). A thing you can use to move Dake higher up on the list is that he is the only one of the seven who won his titles in the first four years after high school graduation. Sanderson took a red-shirt before freshmen year, Stieber was injured his first year, Smith took a red-shirt between junior and senior years, Diakomihalis took two years between Sophomore and Junior years, Brooks to a red-shirt before freshman year, and Starocci took a red-shirt before freshman year. Another thing in the Dake column is he had probably the most impressive win when he beat Taylor.

Agreed

You are the first.

Here is how they rank statistically. Unfortunately finding career bonus percentages is tough, but I do not think that will change the order much, if at all. If you added in things like total wins or total pinfalls, the older guys move up due to their higher usage rate.

Sanderson won 3. Ben Askren, Zain Retherford, Spencer Lee, and Gable Steveson are the only two-timers.

Nebraska +600 for second seems the value play

No, it wasn't the four weights. I don't remember my thinking, but when I get home tonight I will look it up.

For me 5 is irrelevant. The question then becomes where does he rank right now? And I would put him below several other four-timers including Sanderson, Dake and Brooks, at least.

Mark Hall, Pat Lugo, Luke Pletcher, and Kollin Moore were all #1 seeds.

Yep, but since you asked: So, 1973 was their last champion. This year with Josh Koderhandt seeded #3 at 141 he has about a 75% chance of AAing and a 7% chance of taking home the big prize.

No, the chances of at least one champ are 46.9% and the chances of no one in the finals are only 14.7%. That makes sense since you would need a high probability of being in the finals (85.3%) to have a even-ish chance to win a title or two. But one thing to keep in mind with all these probabilities is that any of this stuff could still happen. It is good to remember that based on their seeds the 2001 Minnesota team had a 0.8% chance of ten AA's. Yet they had 10 AA's.

Too kind. Mine is an applied course in how to waste time with statistics.

That was an all-timer

Based on these distributions the answer is 2.5% (9.1% x 27.7%). But that overstates it a bit as these are not independent events (any Iowa win is a denied opportunity for PSU to win, and vice versa), but I do not think the impact is huge, call it between 1.5% and 2%.

Thread 'Wrestlestat Tournament Simulation' https://pennstate.forums.rivals.com/threads/wrestlestat-tournament-simulation.359089/

If that happened it would probably be the best job Brands has ever done, as they would need to significantly outperform their seeds (not an Iowa trait under Brands), combined with the worst job Sanderaon has ever donw, as they would need to significantly underperform their seeds (not a PSU trait under Sanderson).

Starocci lost

Sammy Brooks is a classic of the genre. I also love two post match interviews from 2021. Nick Lee's "chop wood, carry water" and AJ Ferrari's "665".

Four seems high end to me. Based on norms 2.7 is the number. Based on PSU's norm 4.5 is the number. But this team doesn't have the same hammer element as past teams. So I am going with 3 or 4.