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Wrestleknownothing

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Everything posted by Wrestleknownothing

  1. Have at it. I do not need attribution.
  2. 1-Yes. There is a table that has a column with the denominator for every sport and the 30% value for every sport, in the rule book. I am out of town, but can post the location Sunday night. 3-Yes. An official tournament counts as a date, as does a dual. If you look at their wrestlestat team page you will see (unofficial) next to the tournaments that do not count against the total competition dates. The official ones are generally when they send the whole team, while the unofficial are generally when they send a couple guys. A multi-day tournament counts as a single competition date. 3-you can get a hardship waiver more frequently than just when all your eligibility is done. But I do not know the definition of timely.
  3. There absolutely are errors in this data. Everything is self reported. Anywhere you see a V or inverted V in a line, that is almost certainly an error. Just a head's up.
  4. I found this study done by the NCAA on sports sponsorship and participation rates: https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/research/sportpart/2024RES_SportsSponsorshipParticipationRatesReport.pdf When viewed across all levels, D1 thru D3, wrestling has bounced back from its nadir. The number of teams bottomed out at 217 in 2010. At 275 as of 2024 the total number of teams is 27% higher than 2010. Meanwhile, the average roster size has ballooned from almost 22 in 1982 to over 32 in 2024. All Levels Are Not Equal, Though Total D1 teams has leveled off just below 80. While roster size has grown from 29 just before the worst times, to 35 in 2024. D2 is a Different Story Both the number of schools sponsoring wrestling and average roster size has grown significantly. In fact, at 73 schools sponsoring, 2024 was the highest total in the range. Similarly, average roster size was at an all time high. D3 is Another Success Story There has been a steady increase in sponsorship since 2012. And while not at 1982 D3 levels, there are more D3 schools sponsoring wrestling than either D1 or D2. That has not prevented average roster sizes from growing to all time highs either. Putting the Three Together Thanks to the strength of D2 and D3, overall participation is at its peak in the time period. D3 participation passed D1 in 2013 and has not looked back. D3 now has 35% more participants than D1. And D2 is poised to pass D1 in the next few years. At current rates that should happen in five to six years. Where Do We Rank? Kind of in the middle. Of the 29 sports listed, wrestling had the 11th most schools participating in 1982 and the 12th most now. Wrestling also had the 8th most participants, and has the 10th most now. That's right. Swimming just passed wrestling. Sorry guys. (Let us not speak of Diving). Tennis used to be the bomb, but has stood still and gotten passed by a lot of other sports. At least we are not gymnastics. Oof.
  5. The Athletic has an article about the number of college basketball players in the portal who are out of eligibility. There were 137 as of when the article was written. They are being advised by agents and lawyers to put their names in "just in case". The arguments for "just in case" range from "if the NCAA loses lawsuit X" to "what if they give everyone a fifth year". Even if a lawsuit is undecided by the start of next season, they can still bet on a temporary restraining order to allow them to compete.
  6. This happened under the Trump administration. Must be his fault. Right?
  7. They define both terms in an addendum. They do it that way because the numbers change by sport. For wrestling the midway point is defined as the 10th official date of competition for the team. In Alvarez's case, in both 2023 and 2024 it looks like his last match was the team's 11th official date. So he wrestled in the second half, making him ineligible for a hardship waiver. For wrestling 30% is defined as 6 (the denominator is 17 and 30% of the denominator is rounded up to 6). In 2023 Alvarez competed in 9 official dates. In 2024 he competed in 5 official dates. Reasonable time is relative to after all other eligibility is exhausted, not to when the injury occurred.
  8. Chicago born, Villanova grad, Cubs fan. It is like they chose one of my family members.
  9. You, Sir, are a Hall of Fame prognosticator. I completely missed this whenever it was posted (no date on the article, but it mentions the vote was 10/29/2024), but we have a winner. From the ranks of college wrestlers Darryl Burley and Greg Wojciechowski are members of the class of 2025. Other Distinguished Members of the Class of 2025 were Matt Lindland (greco) and Terry Steiner (coaching). https://nwhof.org/news/national-wrestling-hall-of-fame-announces-class-of-2025
  10. I found this paragraph in The Athletic's article interesting: While the plaintiff and defendant lawyers believe Wednesday’s revisions will satisfy Wilken’s requests, the objectors who Wilken ordered be included in the most recent discussions do not endorse these revisions. Shortly after the revisions were filed, Wilken issued an order granting those objectors until May 13 to respond, and the settlement lawyers until May 16 to then reply to those responses.
  11. My first time there was 2018 when they were celebrating 25 years. They did a limited edition belgian ale that was out of this world. That was dad's beer. No sharing.
  12. If you are ever in southern WI, check out New Glarus Brewing. They have a great set up for summertime. And great beer.
  13. As for your other question, is there an optimal seed for overperforming? Below is how the seeds have unfolded in the last eleven years by relative performance bucket. It looks like the 8 seed is probably the value play. But value is a relative term. It assumes you are "buying" the seed like in a pool. If it just a question of probability of placement, you still want that sweet 1 seed. That said, not only does the 8 seed beat almost 43% of the time, but by doing so it gets into the juicy portion of the scoring curve (see below). While the 25 and 26 seeds are the only ones to outperform their seeds more than half the time, they typically are not jumping into the AA slots where they can really impact team scoring.
  14. Regressing at the individual wrestler level is problematic as the data is not continuous because exact placement only goes to eight. For example, if the 33 seed wrestler wins one match they finish in the 17 to 24 range. But where in that range? Got me. And the discrete jumps are largest for the lowest finishes. Wrestlers who finish 0-2 in (ish) are a group of 9. Wrestlers who finish 1-2 are a group of 8. The round of 12 and 16 are groups of 8. And everything else is groups of 1. So measure to the mid-point of the range and regressed at the team level in an attempt to smooth out some of the discontinuity, but that was pretty unsatisfactory. The R-squared was a paltry 0.1255. Here is what that looks like for the 21 teams that averaged 6 NQ per year filtered down to just the years they had at least 5.
  15. Start by reading the very first post in this thread.
  16. Correct. He is part of the 2023 graduating class, whereas Lilledahl is part of the 2024 graduating class. Similarly, I would say 2013 was the last year with no true freshman AA's as Garrett took a grey shirt.
  17. OK, now I took the time. In the last ten tournaments only twice has there been a single true freshman AA. Lilledahl this year and Hamiti in 2022. In 2024 there were 6 true freshman AA's (the most) while the rest of the years had between 2 and 4. Shout out to @cowcards for making this so easy to find (https://wrestling.guru/college-men/ncaa-d1/ncaa-d1-database/)
  18. BTW, I haven't taken the time to research it, but there was a single true freshman AA this year (Luke Lilledahl), does anyone know the last time that happened?
  19. I think this chart sums up the impact of the NCAA's decision to take away a year of eligibility from the 2016 high school graduating class (approximately) and transfer it to the 2017 and beyond classes (approximately) in college wrestling. Using Willie's Big Board data, out to his top 100 ranked recruits I show the number of All-American honors won by each high school graduating class. Notes: The 2016 graduating class was poised to become the most decorated of the era before the NCAA decided to cancel the 2020 tournament. As it stands, without their final year of eligibility they were only 1 AA behind 2014, equal with 2015, and 5 AA's ahead of 2013. The 2017 - 2019 classes effectively received an extra redshirt allowing them to complete their careers a year older than they would have otherwise. While not all took advantage of the extra year, enough did that is shows up in the data. Curiously, the 2020 class, the direct beneficiaries of the fifth year, did little with it. While 40 of the 100 still have remaining eligibility, only 11 of the 40 have AA'd in the past. The class of 2020 is likely to finish with 50 - 55 AA's. The class of 2021 is a bloodbath. With only 16 total AA's from 9 wrestlers among the top 100 through four years, it is not looking good. The story can be told by its top 2 ranked high schoolers. Paddy Gallagher and Alex Facundo have zero AA's between them. While Facundo still has two years left (3? who really knows for sure at this point?) and Gallagher still has one, even if they AA out it will be historically low.
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