Wrestleknownothing

Trump saying an hour after the debate he saw 5 polls saying he won the debate with 90%, 60%, 72%, 71%, and 89%. Later he saw 3 more polls saying he won 80% to 20%, 90% , and 92% to 7%. The dude is pathological.

I do not know the answer to any of your questions. But they are not what Trump claimed, and not what he was corrected about. Trump claimed the former Governor of West Virginia said they would decide to execute babies. Never mind that he got the state wrong, but he so mis-characterized what the former Governor of Virginia said.

Pretty much. Other things beyond politics too. Everything is structured as a futures contract with a zero or one payout. So the prices can be thought of as roughly probability predictions, hence prediction market.

Don't think of them as accurate or inaccurate. Instead they reflect the balance of opinions of the subset of people willing to bet on the outcome. Given enough people they will bend toward accurate. There is something like $900 million bet on this outcome, so probably pretty accurate. But you have to adjust that some for the potential for market manipulation. As a matter of fact, they believe someone attempted to manipulate this market to win a prediction market bet on the debate, but due to the size of this market, it was not sustainable. The other market was a bet on who would "win" the debate. They defined win as whoever was leading in the election market during a four hour window a day after the debate. Harris was a big under dog in the debate market, so there was an obvious arbitrage/bet to take Harris to win the debate and then buy enough Harris election futures at the right time to move this market. It just didn't work because the market for the election is too big for one person to move.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2022-evictions-monarch-investment-rental-properties/

If I had Bob Nicoll's money, I could burn mine.

The market for the pre-debate handshake closed at 30% (buy a contract for $0.30 that pays $1 if handshake, and $0 if no handshake). You heard it hear first. Harris bought a bunch of handshake futures under aliases and then made it happen. Market manipulation in its rawest form. This can not be allowed to happen.

BTW there are all manner of election things you can bet on: https://polymarket.com/elections

From Polymarkets (a prediction market):

Donald Trump spends half his time claiming he knows more about _________ than anyone. He spends the other half claiming he didn't know.

Infinitely fewer attempts to interfere with the peaceful transfer of power.

Can you explain why you ask dumb non-sequitur questions?

Victor Davis Hanson might want to fact check his fact checking of the moderator's fact checking. The one example he gave of the moderator being wrong, was wrong. And what anyone remembers of the second 2012 debate is precisely nothing.

Kevin Malone's favorite amount of battery

There are many cases of many bad things. So what. It is illegal to kill a baby in all 50 states. You can (need to) perform all manner of mental gymnastics to defend Trump statements, but display impressive middle aged rigidity when it comes to Harris statements.

That is not what the Linsey Davis corrected him on. Trump claimed Harris supports killing a baby after it is born. Infanticide is illegal in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. The quote was, "There is no state in this country where it is legal to kill a baby after it is born."

We have a market. Seems like there is a trade to be done here.

You missed a prime opportunity to bash the White Sox.

Debates are performances. Biden gave the worst performance in the history of debates, and he had to drop out of the election as a result. The first time round Trump rode to the presidency on the back of his debate performances. His greatest skill was to put everyone around him on tilt by becoming the personification and embodiment of an internet troll. It proved a highly effective strategy. And it was all performance. This time the expectation of many was that Harris was not up to the task and her performance would prove it ("Why is Harris afraid to debate?" "Isn't her nervous laugh weird" "Why does she need to prepare so much? It will hurt her.") But the reality is that she significantly outperformed Trump last night. As the old saw goes, Trump's failure to prepare was preparing to fail. His over confidence combined with his inability to avoid every trap set for him (all of which were predictable - let's talk about crowd size) led to a pretty unhinged performance last night (I heard it on TV). Harris was very successful putting Trump on tilt and appearing to be the only adult on stage. Even her "isn't he cute" condescending smirk pose was effective. Trump was so on tilt that he failed to put Harris on the spot for not answering any difficult questions. Never mind that never in the history of debates has any candidate, ever answered a difficult question, Trump's one job was to press her on Biden's policies and he failed miserably to do so. At the very end he made a weak attempt to bring it back to that, but by then the damage was done. Now, what does it mean? It is hard for me, or anyone that posts on this forum, to say because we are so entrenched in our positions. I cannot project to the mind of the undecided voter, who is almost certain to decide this election. But if I am a Trump advisor this morning all I am thinking about is damage control. Nowhere near as bad, but kind of like Biden advisors were after the last debate.

What was the crowd size for the debate?

I am mostly upset with Harris for failing to address the real issues. The cats and dogs of Springfield are facing an existential crisis and as Vice President she has done nothing about it.

I could use a little more ruining

That matches my desktop experience. However, the mobile experience (Android/Chrome) is much worse. There are typically two pop up ads at a time covering content. See screenshot below. The ads cover a much larger % of the screen, and always over the content, on mobile.

I read it as Starocci is going 184 also.

probably, but it affected only one of them.