1032004 Posted February 25 Posted February 25 11 hours ago, PNWfan said: If Jimmy pastry things Ok St is anywhere near 25% chance to outscore PSU (as he seems to suggest in his final paragraph), he should be running to the casino to get that bet placed on Ok St. Guessing their actual odds will be less than 5% likely. Run, Jimmy, run! This is a vintage Jimmy post where he makes a decent post overall and then throws in a troll like it’s a 25% chance. I agree less than 5%. Just spitballing best/worst case scenario, and some of my numbers may be off Spratley 2nd 18 Forrest 1st 24 Vega 2nd 19 Swiderski 4th 12.5 Robideau 2nd 18 Lockett 2nd 18 Facundo 4th 12.5 Ryder 5th 10 Merrill 2nd 18 Doucet 8th 6 Total 156 Lilledahl 3rd 16 Blaze 3rd 16 Davis 2-2 2 Van Ness 3rd 16 Duke 3rd 15 Mesenbrink 1st 25 Haines 1st 23 Welsh 4th 13 Barr 1st 24 Mirasola R12 5 Total 155 So, theoretically possible, but would still probably be the greatest upset in team NCAA tournament history.
Psalm 1 guy Posted February 25 Posted February 25 11 hours ago, Truzzcat said: Definitely do not think Ronnie ever sees 125 but I am super high on Zinkin coming in and I would not be shocked if Michael white takes that 184 spot as soon as next year, he has gotten significantly better this year and has only wrestled for 4 years so I cannot imagine the strides he can make in that room. Zinkin and two-time U17 World champion Sammy Sanchez are both in the 120 bracket at this year's upcoming California CIF state tournament. They are seeded to where they would meet in the Finals. Here's to hoping that happens.
Gene Mills Fan Posted February 25 Posted February 25 7 hours ago, 1032004 said: Total 156 Total 155 So, theoretically possible, but would still probably be the greatest upset in team NCAA tournament history. It has been written, So let it be done!
Pinnacle Posted February 25 Posted February 25 Jimmy used the old MSU158 logic where "if this" and "if that" and "realistically could happen" replaces common sense and suddenly the huge underdog comes out on top. Not happening trollboy.
SocraTease Posted February 25 Posted February 25 14 hours ago, 1032004 said: This is a vintage Jimmy post where he makes a decent post overall and then throws in a troll like it’s a 25% chance. I agree less than 5%. Just spitballing best/worst case scenario, and some of my numbers may be off Spratley 2nd 18 Forrest 1st 24 Vega 2nd 19 Swiderski 4th 12.5 Robideau 2nd 18 Lockett 2nd 18 Facundo 4th 12.5 Ryder 5th 10 Merrill 2nd 18 Doucet 8th 6 Total 156 Lilledahl 3rd 16 Blaze 3rd 16 Davis 2-2 2 Van Ness 3rd 16 Duke 3rd 15 Mesenbrink 1st 25 Haines 1st 23 Welsh 4th 13 Barr 1st 24 Mirasola R12 5 Total 155 So, theoretically possible, but would still probably be the greatest upset in team NCAA tournament history. PSU, however, always seems to get more bonus points than anyone
SocraTease Posted February 25 Posted February 25 14 hours ago, 1032004 said: This is a vintage Jimmy post where he makes a decent post overall and then throws in a troll like it’s a 25% chance. I agree less than 5%. Just spitballing best/worst case scenario, and some of my numbers may be off Spratley 2nd 18 Forrest 1st 24 Vega 2nd 19 Swiderski 4th 12.5 Robideau 2nd 18 Lockett 2nd 18 Facundo 4th 12.5 Ryder 5th 10 Merrill 2nd 18 Doucet 8th 6 Total 156 Lilledahl 3rd 16 Blaze 3rd 16 Davis 2-2 2 Van Ness 3rd 16 Duke 3rd 15 Mesenbrink 1st 25 Haines 1st 23 Welsh 4th 13 Barr 1st 24 Mirasola R12 5 Total 155 So, theoretically possible, but would still probably be the greatest upset in team NCAA tournament history. An operating conceit (assumption) in this "Hail Mary" scenario seems to be that most OK St. guys perform better than their seeds and most PSU perform worse than their seeds. A result where Merrill (currently ranked 7th) finishes 2nd and Barr (undefeated and currently ranked 1st) finishes 4th strains credulity. But, ok, it's merely hypothetic and eventually will be counterfactual ... and doesn't account for potential bonus points
Gene Mills Fan Posted February 25 Posted February 25 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Coastal said: Iowa wins it all this year. 125 Lilledahl's ranked #1 and Peterson beat him once so obviously Peterson wins it all 25 pts 133 Ayala is the second highest returner. He's due to beat Byrd so 1st 24 pts 141 Baily beat Davis who finished 5th last year so obviously 4th 15 pts 149 Block did well in high school tournaments so he's a tournament gamer 5th 12 pts 157 Williams was recruited for a reason. Finally figuring out Iowa style 5th 12 pts 165 Caliendo held Mes to a decision last year so he's close. 1st 25pt 174 Kennedy sat out against Haines so he wouldn't get a feel 1st 23 pts 184 Ferrari won't let Welsh stall so bad the next time 1st 22 pts 197 Arnold has been saving his offense and 197 can't handle his quickness 3rd 18 pts Hwt. There's a reason Keuter was a world champ 1st 24 pt Iowa wins big with 6 champs and sets a new scoring record. Brilliant, you do Jimmy better than Jimmy! Edited February 25 by Gene Mills Fan
1032004 Posted February 25 Posted February 25 (edited) 36 minutes ago, SocraTease said: An operating conceit (assumption) in this "Hail Mary" scenario seems to be that most OK St. guys perform better than their seeds and most PSU perform worse than their seeds. A result where Merrill (currently ranked 7th) finishes 2nd and Barr (undefeated and currently ranked 1st) finishes 4th strains credulity. But, ok, it's merely hypothetic and eventually will be counterfactual ... and doesn't account for potential bonus points I had Barr 1st, among 3 champs for PSU. I think in a true doomsday scenario one could theoretically say they only get 1 champ, maybe 2. I also only gave OSU only one champ when in a perfect world you could give them 2 or 3 I tried to account for bonus, but admittedly less than PSU typically gets. What makes it interesting is that there are several weights where there’s not really a clear favorite where both OSU and PSU have contenders, most notably 133 & 157, some might argue 184 (note I only put Ryder 5th). So a potential OSU champ means PSU doesn’t have one there and OSU gains ground. But yes, extremely unlikely for this all to happen. Maybe a more realistic way for it to happen would be if Mesenbrink gets hurt in the first round or something and can’t continue + a couple guys underperform. Edited February 25 by 1032004
jackwebster Posted February 25 Posted February 25 (edited) Re could: yes. Probability: It's more likely that PSU has 7 champions than it is for OSU to have 10 AAs. Here are my guesses (heads up though . . . I took a lot of acid the semester I had stats) OSU's 10 AAs 125: 70% 133: 95% 141: 80% 149: 50% 157: 70% 165: 70% 174: 60% 184: 50% 197: 60% 285: 60% PSU Champs 125: 70% (3 people can beat him) 133: 25% (5) 149: 80% (1) 157: 20% (6) 165: 95% (0) 174: 90% (1) 184: 50% (4) 197: 80% (2) Edited February 25 by jackwebster
MPhillips Posted February 25 Posted February 25 37 minutes ago, Gene Mills Fan said: Brilliant, you do Jimmy better than Jimmy! Lots of research material available... .
1032004 Posted February 25 Posted February 25 30 minutes ago, jackwebster said: Re could: yes. Probability: It's more likely that PSU has 7 champions than it is for OSU to have 10 AAs. Here are my guesses (heads up though . . . I took a lot of acid the semester I had stats) OSU's 10 AAs 125: 70% 133: 95% 141: 80% 149: 50% 157: 70% 165: 70% 174: 60% 184: 50% 197: 60% 285: 60% PSU Champs 125: 70% (3 people can beat him) 133: 25% (5) 149: 80% (1) 157: 20% (6) 165: 95% (0) 174: 90% (1) 184: 50% (4) 197: 80% (2) This is an interesting question. I’d give Robideau, Lockett and Merrill a little higher, so I’d go: OSU's 10 AAs 125: 70% 133: 95% 141: 80% 149: 50% 157: 75% 165: 75% 174: 60% 184: 50% 197: 70% 285: 60% =1.9% PSU Champs, I’d give Lilledahl and Welsh a little less 125: 65% 133 or 157: 45% 149: 80% 165: 95% 174: 90% 184: 30% 197: 80% =4.8% Yeah, you’re probably right
AgaveMaria Posted February 25 Posted February 25 Remains to be seen if Taylor will have the guys peaking as well as Cael does. Tom Ryan might have a say in the contest as well. Tom & Terry can only sit back, watch & marvel at how well others do while their guys look haggard & still not figure out how to change training to have them ready for the biggest days of the year. ” Never attribute to inspiration that which can be adequately explained by delusion”.
1032004 Posted February 25 Posted February 25 20 minutes ago, AgaveMaria said: Remains to be seen if Taylor will have the guys peaking as well as Cael does. Tom Ryan might have a say in the contest as well. Tom & Terry can only sit back, watch & marvel at how well others do while their guys look haggard & still not figure out how to change training to have them ready for the biggest days of the year. Taylor did pretty good at that last year… And Brands was able to get Buchanan over the hump last year. tOSU’s performance may depend a lot on the health of Cannon IMO. They probably won’t get much from 165 or 197 which will hurt their chances at 2nd. But they could also get 3 champs, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see Kharchla and/or Fishback to step it up.
jackwebster Posted February 25 Posted February 25 47 minutes ago, 1032004 said: I’d give Robideau . . . a little higher, He's my favorite current Cowboy which makes him my favorite overall. If the Robideau who wrestled Cardenas is available, he wins the whole thing.
Nevaeh Lavarias Pearl City High School, Hawaii Class of 2027 Committed to Kent State Projected Weight: 124
Braeden Simoneaux New York Military Academy, Louisiana Class of 2027 Committed to Wyoming Projected Weight: 184, 197
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