Post-Worlds Way Too Early Olympic Lineup Predictions

[boconnell]

2 hours ago, okokzach said:

This was earlier this year at a catchweight 

https://www.flowrestling.org/video/13814559-88-kg-fwnia-zahid-valencia-cowboy-rtc-vs-trent-hidlay-wolfpack-rtc

Thank you for that.  Zahid looked stronger and more physical.  That's wild.  

[MizzouFan01]

I’d add O’Toole in the mix at 74kg. He should be fully healed if not now soon. Not saying he will make the team, but he has a chance. I would put him on par with Carr and Mitchell. 

[TylerDurden]

14 hours ago, Truzzcat said:

realistically how many guys are you giving a shot? I think at this moment and it could change there are 7 contenders Mendez,Jax,Marcus,Valencia,Real,Stanich,Bassett. Jax and Marcus are probably the only two that are still actively growing physically so I think that is a bump for them. Valencia and Bassett are both super tough but do not feel like guys to me that are at this moment progressing at the same rate as the other guys and are not at this moment in a training environment that is conducive to making up the ground they need to so I am going to take them out that could change depending on where Bo goes. So my list is down to 5. Jesse lacks wins as of now in freestlye a lot of his expectations are based off of a yianni win when yianni was seemingly quite compromised and a close match with sub optimal Zain. He has losses to Larkin and real and beat blaze essentially off of shot clock points when Blaze was still in high school and weighed in 6lbs under. He is also the second oldest and has been in the same training situation for 4 years now and while he has made steady progression the bulk of his gains seemed to be from year 1 to year 2. I am assuming Jax and Blaze not factoring in size are comparable to him skill wise right now and give them more room for growth in the next 3 years. so that leaves Stanich,Real,Blaze,Jax. Stanich wins with his handfight and pace he was largely out wrestled by toprak for 2 minutes and then melted him which is a skill that works great internationally but I dont see him melting guys domestically although he does seem to still have a lot of room for growth looking at current trajectory, however I am going to removed him. Age makes me want to remove Real instinctually but he made drastic strides in my opinion from the open to what he did today. I do not think the guy that lost to valencia would have beaten sujeet or honestly have been within a few points of him so I am keeping him in as well as Jax and Blaze. So for my money 3 guys have a shot in 2028 to win the weight however I will bake in 10% chance for any of them to lose to the field. I still would have any of the 3 as a 30% shot to win right now although because of bias I would definitely inflate Jax. This of course is the way too early look so all of this could change drastically in 6 months to a year.

This speaks to how competitive the spots will be if we're writing off Mendez three years out. 

[RandolphTJones]

18 hours ago, Gus said:

Is there a reason for Snyder to go to 125kg? He looks smaller than a lot of the 97kg guys that he competes against. 

Maybe if Hidlay can move to 97 and be the guy? Seems like 125KG is our "weakest" weight moving forward? 

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

38 minutes ago, RandolphTJones said:

Maybe if Hidlay can move to 97 and be the guy? Seems like 125KG is our "weakest" weight moving forward? 

We have tremendous depth at 125,probably more depth under the age of 30 than any other weight.  Unfortunately, a lot of them retired, took the year off, attempted to join the NFL, or are doing MMA. (or focused on making money off NCAA success)

Edited 18 hours ago by Interviewed_at_Weehawken

[RandolphTJones]

1 hour ago, Interviewed_at_Weehawken said:

We have tremendous depth at 125,probably more depth under the age of 30 than any other weight.  Unfortunately, a lot of them retired, took the year off, attempted to join the NFL, or are doing MMA. (or focused on making money off NCAA success)

Yes, hence "weakest" for future possibilities of medaling. 

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

1 minute ago, RandolphTJones said:

Yes, hence "weakest" for future possibilities of medaling. 

Not sure.  Hopefully:

Parris has his head on straight. (Age group world champ)

Wyatt starts to focus more on wrestling.  (age group world champ)

Kerkvliet is healthy (age group world champ)

Kueter grows and is healthy (age group world champ and silver; Azarpira was in his weight)

Trumbull grows and continues to improve (age group world champ)

Ferrari gets his head on straight (age group medalist)

Yonger could play a role if all goes right

I won't count on the wee/nfl/bjj/mma guy.

And there are others.

Looks pretty deep to me.

 

[RandolphTJones]

My probable lineup as of now:

57kg: Lee- Olympic Silver Medalist think he remains on the team, Lilledahl could also make huge noise.

65KG- Forrest/Blaze/Mendez- All 3 aging what 18-22 right now? Plenty of past medals and time to improve.

74KG- Dake a previous Bronze medalist, Carr right there with the best. Laso 18/19 PJ Duke, also plenty of time to improve. 

86KG- Valencia- Dominant right now

97KG- Plethora of Olympic Worl Medals already. In case he burns out due to age Hidlay a great option B

125KG- Parris repped at the Olympics- went 0-1, Hendrickson repped at Worlds also 0-1. Those 2 look to be the 2 favorites at 125KG right now. Someone else may very well step in here but with past results and potential, thats why I view this as our weakest weight moving forward. 

[Dogbone]

28 is 3 years away, if the youth trend continues its entirely possible someone on the 28 team is only 15-17 years old currently.  

[Paul158]

3 hours ago, Interviewed_at_Weehawken said:

Not sure.  Hopefully:

Parris has his head on straight. (Age group world champ)

Wyatt starts to focus more on wrestling.  (age group world champ)

Kerkvliet is healthy (age group world champ)

Kueter grows and is healthy (age group world champ and silver; Azarpira was in his weight)

Trumbull grows and continues to improve (age group world champ)

Ferrari gets his head on straight (age group medalist)

Yonger could play a role if all goes right

I won't count on the wee/nfl/bjj/mma guy.

And there are others.

Looks pretty deep to me.

 

It's too bad we have American Football. We would probably have the top 25 heavyweight wrestlers in the world. 

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

5 hours ago, RandolphTJones said:

My probable lineup as of now:

57kg: Lee- Olympic Silver Medalist think he remains on the team, Lilledahl could also make huge noise.

65KG- Forrest/Blaze/Mendez- All 3 aging what 18-22 right now? Plenty of past medals and time to improve.

74KG- Dake a previous Bronze medalist, Carr right there with the best. Laso 18/19 PJ Duke, also plenty of time to improve. 

86KG- Valencia- Dominant right now

97KG- Plethora of Olympic Worl Medals already. In case he burns out due to age Hidlay a great option B

125KG- Parris repped at the Olympics- went 0-1, Hendrickson repped at Worlds also 0-1. Those 2 look to be the 2 favorites at 125KG right now. Someone else may very well step in here but with past results and potential, thats why I view this as our weakest weight moving forward. 

You do realize that Parris has a 2023 bronze and had a back and forth battle with geno, right? That’s a piece of the puzzle, too. 
in fact, didn’t he have a ranking tournament win over geno?

Edited 10 hours ago by Interviewed_at_Weehawken

[BruceyB]

On 9/16/2025 at 11:12 AM, nhs67 said:

61 KG - Forrest, <5% 65 KG, <1% 57 KG

I'm curious how you'd give Forrest a less than 1 in 20 chance to make the team at 65kg. He just made the world team as a high schooler and 65kg is almost certainly going to be the most natural weight for him in 2028. He's still pretty spindly.

That being said, I also think that 65kg is going to be the deepest weight at OTT. I don't know if from 3 years out you can really give anyone more than ~15% chance to make the team. I don't even know who the favorite to make the team would be. Mendez? Valencia? Woods? Jax? Blaze?

 

[nhs67]

Just now, BruceyB said:

I'm curious how you'd give Forrest a less than 1 in 20 chance to make the team at 65kg. He just made the world team as a high schooler and 65kg is almost certainly going to be the most natural weight for him in 2028. He's still pretty spindly.

That being said, I also think that 65kg is going to be the deepest weight at OTT. I don't know if from 3 years out you can really give anyone more than ~15% chance to make the team. I don't even know who the favorite to make the team would be. Mendez? Valencia? Woods? Jax? Blaze?

 

There are other aspects to it that are unknowns, too.

Right now I would not pick him over Blaze, Bassett, Stanich, Mendez, Lee(Nick), Bartlett, Hardy, McKenna, or Woods at 65 KG.  That is just for starters without digging much in to it.

We also have zero clue how he will do moving up in weight.  Not everyone does as well as others.  Look at Gross, for example (same body type), he doesn't do the best up at 65 KG.

[BruceyB]

23 minutes ago, Interviewed_at_Weehawken said:

You do realize that Parris has a 2023 bronze and had a back and forth battle with geno, right? That’s a piece of the puzzle, too. 
in fact, didn’t he have a ranking tournament win over geno?

I really believe our best option at 125kg in 2028 is likely to be one of the young studs coming up. Mocco, Ross, Merrill.. I think there is potential for one of those three to really emerge with 3 years of growing into a legitimate 125 and developing in a college room.

[BruceyB]

4 minutes ago, nhs67 said:

There are other aspects to it that are unknowns, too.

Right now I would not pick him over Blaze, Bassett, Stanich, Mendez, Lee(Nick), Bartlett, Hardy, McKenna, or Woods at 65 KG.  That is just for starters without digging much in to it.

We also have zero clue how he will do moving up in weight.  Not everyone does as well as others.  Look at Gross, for example (same body type), he doesn't do the best up at 65 KG.

As if they wrestled right now? Or right now in your 2028 projections?

If it's the former, then sure, whatever. He's a 61kg high schooler. If it's the latter, then I think we have drastically different opinions on Jax's trajectory over the next three years. I think Jax is the most dynamic wrestler with the most room for growth out of everyone you have listed above. But that's JMO.

[Pa in Taiwan]

23 hours ago, Interviewed_at_Weehawken said:

Zahid has always handled Trent.  I think Trent has really levelled up since WTT, but Zahid may have too.

Zahid "may" have? Zahid was a different wrestler in this tournament, not in style, but in just about every other facet. His cardio was so much improved, dare I say David Taylor-like. His attacks were crisp, and there were no dives onto the opponents legs. HIs attitude, motivation and confidence are all visibly different. There's no doubt that Trent has levelled up. There's also no doubt that Zahid has levelled up. The biggest question for them both now is consistency. Remember, on any given day... They both had great tournaments. Can they continue the momentum next year? Trent looks big at 92kg. I imagine he will look bigger in 2026 and 2027, and I am guessing that he will look to go to 97kg for 2028. 

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

7 minutes ago, Pa in Taiwan said:

Zahid "may" have? Zahid was a different wrestler in this tournament, not in style, but in just about every other facet. His cardio was so much improved, dare I say David Taylor-like. His attacks were crisp, and there were no dives onto the opponents legs. HIs attitude, motivation and confidence are all visibly different. There's no doubt that Trent has levelled up. There's also no doubt that Zahid has levelled up. The biggest question for them both now is consistency. Remember, on any given day... They both had great tournaments. Can they continue the momentum next year? Trent looks big at 92kg. I imagine he will look bigger in 2026 and 2027, and I am guessing that he will look to go to 97kg for 2028. 

Yes, I said Zahid MAY have leveled up at this tournament. 
I said that because he clearly showed tremendous improvement over the past year… and he was already pretty good after narrowly losing to juiced up Olympic bronze medalist Brooks by the slimmest of margins. 

Then, after moving to Stillwater, he handled notoriously stingy Kyle Dake multiple times at OTT. 

I would say that Hidlays improvement from WTT was much more noticeable. 

[Pa in Taiwan]

6 minutes ago, Interviewed_at_Weehawken said:

I would say that Hidlays improvement from WTT was much more noticeable. 

A fair statement. That said, they both dominated their respective weight classes at the Senior Men's Freestyle World Championships. That in itself is a HUGE jump from WTT.  I guess your point is that Zahid was already at a much higher level. I just feel that the inconsistency of his previous senior men's performances really disappeared here. There was not a scintilla of that inconsistency in ANY of his matches. 

[Eagle26]

On 9/16/2025 at 6:44 PM, boconnell said:

I would.  I honestly think it's him or Blaze and it's near 50/50.  I give Forest a slight edge over Blaze because I think his frame is bigger and will fill the weight better in 2 years.  I think those two are a cut above everyone else.

I think after this performance, you have to include Real Woods in the conversation. He medaled in a heavier and tougher weight than Jax was in. He obviously made big strides and is pretty new to freestyle, so he probably has a good learning curve. 

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

15 minutes ago, Pa in Taiwan said:

A fair statement. That said, they both dominated their respective weight classes at the Senior Men's Freestyle World Championships. That in itself is a HUGE jump from WTT.  I guess your point is that Zahid was already at a much higher level. I just feel that the inconsistency of his previous senior men's performances really disappeared here. There was not a scintilla of that inconsistency in ANY of his matches. 

But I was super impressed by Zahids dismantling of ghasempour. 

[boconnell]

19 minutes ago, Eagle26 said:

I think after this performance, you have to include Real Woods in the conversation. He medaled in a heavier and tougher weight than Jax was in. He obviously made big strides and is pretty new to freestyle, so he probably has a good learning curve. 

You're probably not wrong that he's in the mix.  Especially with him already in final X next year.  

But while 65 was very tough, I'm not sure Woods beat anybody close to Forest's win over Suda.  Woods wrestled one guy listed in FLO's pre tournament top 10, and it was a quick TF loss.  I don't say this to dismiss his performance, but more to dispute you using weight class strength as an argument.  65 is tougher but Forest wrestled harder opponents.  

Edited 8 hours ago by boconnell

[Truzzcat]

17 minutes ago, BruceyB said:

I'm curious how you'd give Forrest a less than 1 in 20 chance to make the team at 65kg. He just made the world team as a high schooler and 65kg is almost certainly going to be the most natural weight for him in 2028. He's still pretty spindly.

That being said, I also think that 65kg is going to be the deepest weight at OTT. I don't know if from 3 years out you can really give anyone more than ~15% chance to make the team. I don't even know who the favorite to make the team would be. Mendez? Valencia? Woods? Jax? Blaze?

 

Valencia feels the most freestyle savvy to me right now of all those guys which is kinda why I give him the worst chance in 2028. Feel like the other guys can make tactical improvements that he is already very proficient in.

2028 sleepers imo
-Meyer 74kg (he needs to grow and stay healthy two things that I am not entirely sure are possible still think hes one of if not the most talented guys we have domestically)
- Ross 125kg (as I mentioned above he weighs like 225 right now if he can put on good size to get to 250 I think he can be as physically imposing as masoumi while also having serious leg attacks) could still be too green and immature in 2028 though he will be 21
-KOT 86kg, I kinda like the idea of hoss keegan more than skinny sucked out Keegan. I think the way he wrestles is going to be tiring and really hard for bigger guys to deal with. He deflects pressure really well and can get to legs or around guys without going under them a lot of times which I think will mitigate the strength issues a bit but he could just be too small still.
-Brandon Cannon (This is probably a huge reach but this kid keeps getting so much better year to year and is still growing. He is probably just MM lite crazy pace good attacks but probably just not as good at any of those things. If he can tighten up the defense like mitchell has and continue to pressure the way he does though I think he is a nightmare for anyone ( I believe he is still only 20)
-Alex Facundo 74kg (He has always been better at free beat levi 6-0 and lost to Jordan 5-3 at trails did also lose to Berger 5-5 on the backside. He looked really good in the china stillwater dual still want to see how he looks with the new regime but I am optimistic it has been a good change for him.)
- Aedon sinclair 86kg (He probably has the best hips I have ever seen besides Cenzo and Dake and he is not nearly as physically mature as those guys yet. On top of that he has an excellent chest wrap and crotch lift. I think a mature and improved Sinclair is a serious problem come 2028 think about how close he was to keeping Max off the team and what max did at u20's)