Post-Worlds Way Too Early Olympic Lineup Predictions

[RandolphTJones]

Just curious what everyone thinks could be USA's potential freestyle lineup come 2028 Olympics as we stand now.....

[nhs67]

I am going to do it a little different than what you asked for.  I am going to list our current team members, and give them what I think is a realistic percentage for being our rep.

57 KG - Lee, ~75% 57 KG
61 KG - Forrest, <5% 65 KG, <1% 57 KG
65 KG - Woods, 5-10% 65 KG
70 KG - Duke, 5-10% 74 KG
74 KG - Carr, 20-25% 74 KG
79 KG - Haines, 15-20% 74 KG, <5% 86 KG
86 KG - Valencia, ~75% 86 KG
92 KG - Thicclay, <5 % 86 KG, 5-10% 97 KG
97 KG - Snyder, ~75% 97 KG
125 KG - Pindrickson, 15-20% 125 KG

Interestingly enough, I think were Snyder to go 125 KG, he would win it, and perhaps his match against Parris is to test those waters.

That said, I think Lee, Valencia, and Snyder are heavy favorites to make it and realistically only injury or retirement will change that.  Lee laid a dud, but that is more because of our unrealistic expectations.

If I had to bet, right now, this is what I would put our team at:

57 KG - Lee
65 KG - Mendez
74 KG - Carr
86 KG - Valencia
97 KG - Snyder
125 KG - Parris
 

[RandolphTJones]

31 minutes ago, nhs67 said:

I am going to do it a little different than what you asked for.  I am going to list our current team members, and give them what I think is a realistic percentage for being our rep.

57 KG - Lee, ~75% 57 KG
61 KG - Forrest, <5% 65 KG, <1% 57 KG
65 KG - Woods, 5-10% 65 KG
70 KG - Duke, 5-10% 74 KG
74 KG - Carr, 20-25% 74 KG
79 KG - Haines, 15-20% 74 KG, <5% 86 KG
86 KG - Valencia, ~75% 86 KG
92 KG - Thicclay, <5 % 86 KG, 5-10% 97 KG
97 KG - Snyder, ~75% 97 KG
125 KG - Pindrickson, 15-20% 125 KG

Interestingly enough, I think were Snyder to go 125 KG, he would win it, and perhaps his match against Parris is to test those waters.

That said, I think Lee, Valencia, and Snyder are heavy favorites to make it and realistically only injury or retirement will change that.  Lee laid a dud, but that is more because of our unrealistic expectations.

If I had to bet, right now, this is what I would put our team at:

57 KG - Lee
65 KG - Mendez
74 KG - Carr
86 KG - Valencia
97 KG - Snyder
125 KG - Parris
 

I think Snyder will have a lot or wear and tear in 2+ years. Does Hidlay pose the biggest threat? Brooks if eligible? 

I think 65 top 3 comes to a burner between Forrest, Mendez and Blaze. isn't this historically our weakest weight? I';d take any of those 3 to be our rep. 

74KG Give me Duke. 

 

I like your analysis on the current World Team. Was nice to look up for reference. 

 

[nhs67]

13 minutes ago, RandolphTJones said:

I think Snyder will have a lot or wear and tear in 2+ years. Does Hidlay pose the biggest threat? Brooks if eligible? 

I think 65 top 3 comes to a burner between Forrest, Mendez and Blaze. isn't this historically our weakest weight? I';d take any of those 3 to be our rep. 

74KG Give me Duke. 

 

I like your analysis on the current World Team. Was nice to look up for reference. 

 

Your assessment on Snyder is fair.  Guys at 97 KG age slower than guys at 65 KG or 57 KG, though, and Snyder is on the right side of 30 still.  If we are worried about Snyder in 2+ years, we should also be worried about Zahid.

[Barracuda141]

57kg- Luke Lilledahl
65kg- Blaze
74kg- Duke Mafia
86kg- Zahid
97kg- Snyder
125kg- Parris

[TylerDurden]

39 minutes ago, nhs67 said:

Your assessment on Snyder is fair.  Guys at 97 KG age slower than guys at 65 KG or 57 KG, though, and Snyder is on the right side of 30 still.  If we are worried about Snyder in 2+ years, we should also be worried about Zahid.

The real question is what ages you faster: Hookers or blow? 

[MPhillips]

16 minutes ago, TylerDurden said:

The real question is what ages you faster: Hookers or blow? 

They don't go together?

[Gus]

1 hour ago, nhs67 said:

I am going to do it a little different than what you asked for.  I am going to list our current team members, and give them what I think is a realistic percentage for being our rep.

57 KG - Lee, ~75% 57 KG
61 KG - Forrest, <5% 65 KG, <1% 57 KG
65 KG - Woods, 5-10% 65 KG
70 KG - Duke, 5-10% 74 KG
74 KG - Carr, 20-25% 74 KG
79 KG - Haines, 15-20% 74 KG, <5% 86 KG
86 KG - Valencia, ~75% 86 KG
92 KG - Thicclay, <5 % 86 KG, 5-10% 97 KG
97 KG - Snyder, ~75% 97 KG
125 KG - Pindrickson, 15-20% 125 KG

Interestingly enough, I think were Snyder to go 125 KG, he would win it, and perhaps his match against Parris is to test those waters.

That said, I think Lee, Valencia, and Snyder are heavy favorites to make it and realistically only injury or retirement will change that.  Lee laid a dud, but that is more because of our unrealistic expectations.

If I had to bet, right now, this is what I would put our team at:

57 KG - Lee
65 KG - Mendez
74 KG - Carr
86 KG - Valencia
97 KG - Snyder
125 KG - Parris
 

Is there a reason for Snyder to go to 125kg? He looks smaller than a lot of the 97kg guys that he competes against. 

[Window12]

A little while ago there was a sparring video of Snyder with Akgul- he was being manhandled by Akgul. Snyder will be at a significant disadvantage at 125 let alone winning it

[boconnell]

1 hour ago, nhs67 said:

Your assessment on Snyder is fair.  Guys at 97 KG age slower than guys at 65 KG or 57 KG, though, and Snyder is on the right side of 30 still.  If we are worried about Snyder in 2+ years, we should also be worried about Zahid.

I agree.  I think Snyder will be closer to what he is today in 2 years than Zahid will.  Zahid is a guy who works off athleticism and he may not have peak athleticism much longer.  Snyder seems like he'll be at least 95% of Snyder if he is healthy.  Honestly I bet Varner could be like 80% of Varner today at 40 years old.  That's just the nature of 97/125.

[boconnell]

I wouldn't be surprised to see Lihledahl catch Lee in the next 2 years.  It's hard to keep pushing yourself and working against a failing body when you didn't win a medal.  I think Forest has plenty of frame to mature into 65.  I think he's at least 50% to be the rep.  I think Carr and Messenbrink are pretty even and Duke is a wildcard.  If Hidlay can effectively make 86 he seems like a nightmare matchup for Zahid.  I don't see anyone that close to Snyder.  Who knows at 125.

[nhs67]

42 minutes ago, boconnell said:

I wouldn't be surprised to see Lihledahl catch Lee in the next 2 years.  It's hard to keep pushing yourself and working against a failing body when you didn't win a medal.  I think Forest has plenty of frame to mature into 65.  I think he's at least 50% to be the rep.  I think Carr and Messenbrink are pretty even and Duke is a wildcard.  If Hidlay can effectively make 86 he seems like a nightmare matchup for Zahid.  I don't see anyone that close to Snyder.  Who knows at 125.

If he is at least 50% then you are taking him over the field?

[nhs67]

1 hour ago, Window12 said:

A little while ago there was a sparring video of Snyder with Akgul- he was being manhandled by Akgul. Snyder will be at a significant disadvantage at 125 let alone winning it

This was like ten years ago.  Akgul was in his prime and Snyder still very young.

[nhs67]

1 hour ago, Gus said:

Is there a reason for Snyder to go to 125kg? He looks smaller than a lot of the 97kg guys that he competes against. 

No, I don't think so.  He is short, but has been 213lbs for a long time with very low body fat percent.

He isn't smaller just short.

[Truzzcat]

57kg: Spencer over Luke
65kg: Jax over Blaze (Call me crazy but I think this is the toughest match he has in 2028)
74kg: PJ over Mitchell/Carr 
86kg: Zahid over max
97kg: Rademacher over Snyder
125kg: Dreshaun I hope over Wyatt

[Truzzcat]

55 minutes ago, nhs67 said:

If he is at least 50% then you are taking him over the field?

realistically how many guys are you giving a shot? I think at this moment and it could change there are 7 contenders Mendez,Jax,Marcus,Valencia,Real,Stanich,Bassett. Jax and Marcus are probably the only two that are still actively growing physically so I think that is a bump for them. Valencia and Bassett are both super tough but do not feel like guys to me that are at this moment progressing at the same rate as the other guys and are not at this moment in a training environment that is conducive to making up the ground they need to so I am going to take them out that could change depending on where Bo goes. So my list is down to 5. Jesse lacks wins as of now in freestlye a lot of his expectations are based off of a yianni win when yianni was seemingly quite compromised and a close match with sub optimal Zain. He has losses to Larkin and real and beat blaze essentially off of shot clock points when Blaze was still in high school and weighed in 6lbs under. He is also the second oldest and has been in the same training situation for 4 years now and while he has made steady progression the bulk of his gains seemed to be from year 1 to year 2. I am assuming Jax and Blaze not factoring in size are comparable to him skill wise right now and give them more room for growth in the next 3 years. so that leaves Stanich,Real,Blaze,Jax. Stanich wins with his handfight and pace he was largely out wrestled by toprak for 2 minutes and then melted him which is a skill that works great internationally but I dont see him melting guys domestically although he does seem to still have a lot of room for growth looking at current trajectory, however I am going to removed him. Age makes me want to remove Real instinctually but he made drastic strides in my opinion from the open to what he did today. I do not think the guy that lost to valencia would have beaten sujeet or honestly have been within a few points of him so I am keeping him in as well as Jax and Blaze. So for my money 3 guys have a shot in 2028 to win the weight however I will bake in 10% chance for any of them to lose to the field. I still would have any of the 3 as a 30% shot to win right now although because of bias I would definitely inflate Jax. This of course is the way too early look so all of this could change drastically in 6 months to a year.

[boconnell]

1 hour ago, nhs67 said:

If he is at least 50% then you are taking him over the field?

I would.  I honestly think it's him or Blaze and it's near 50/50.  I give Forest a slight edge over Blaze because I think his frame is bigger and will fill the weight better in 2 years.  I think those two are a cut above everyone else.

[AZ_wrestling]

4 hours ago, nhs67 said:

Your assessment on Snyder is fair.  Guys at 97 KG age slower than guys at 65 KG or 57 KG, though, and Snyder is on the right side of 30 still.  If we are worried about Snyder in 2+ years, we should also be worried about Zahid.

Absolutely incredible that Snyder is a 10x world/oly medalist and not even 30 yet. 

[LemonPie]

I think Barr has the frame to move up to 97Kg and challenge a nearly 32-year-old Kyle Snyder.  Give him like a 15% chance. He can go 285 his senior year and let Cole Mirasola Olympic redshirt.

Edited 1 hour ago by LemonPie

[okokzach]

3 hours ago, boconnell said:

If Hidlay can effectively make 86 he seems like a nightmare matchup for Zahid

This was earlier this year at a catchweight 

https://www.flowrestling.org/video/13814559-88-kg-fwnia-zahid-valencia-cowboy-rtc-vs-trent-hidlay-wolfpack-rtc

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

20 minutes ago, okokzach said:

This was earlier this year at a catchweight 

https://www.flowrestling.org/video/13814559-88-kg-fwnia-zahid-valencia-cowboy-rtc-vs-trent-hidlay-wolfpack-rtc

Zahid has always handled Trent.  I think Trent has really levelled up since WTT, but Zahid may have too.